Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 11 October 2026, after the last game
Vaduz have the biggest shortfall in the Super League: 9 points from chances worth 14.7 xPts, a gap of 5.7. At the other end, Lugano have taken 28 points from an xPts figure of 16.6, 11.4 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugano | 6 | 18 | 11.5 | +6.5 | 4 | 8.7 | -4.7 | +14 | 2.8 | +11.2 | 16 | 10.1 | +5.9 |
| 2 | Young Boys | 5 | 17 | 13.8 | +3.2 | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 | +5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 11 | 9.8 | +1.2 |
| 3 | Luzern | 5 | 11 | 12.0 | -1.0 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | +2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | 9 | 9.6 | -0.6 |
| 4 | St. Gallen | 5 | 8 | 10.3 | -2.3 | 10 | 5.7 | +4.3 | -2 | 4.6 | -6.6 | 7 | 9.6 | -2.6 |
| 5 | Vaduz | 5 | 14 | 11.1 | +2.9 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | +6 | 3.5 | +2.5 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 |
| 6 | Sion | 5 | 11 | 12.8 | -1.8 | 7 | 9.3 | -2.3 | +4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 |
| 7 | Servette | 5 | 6 | 8.7 | -2.7 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | +1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 |
| 8 | Zürich | 5 | 11 | 7.6 | +3.4 | 10 | 7.6 | +2.4 | +1 | 0.0 | +1.0 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 |
| 9 | Grasshopper | 5 | 7 | 9.3 | -2.3 | 13 | 10.8 | +2.2 | -6 | -1.5 | -4.5 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 10 | Basel | 5 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 | 11 | 7.4 | +3.6 | -4 | -2.2 | -1.8 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 |
| 11 | Lausanne Sport | 5 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 11 | 8.3 | +2.7 | -6 | -2.9 | -3.1 | 2 | 5.2 | -3.2 |
| 12 | Thun | 4 | 2 | 6.4 | -4.4 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 | -9 | -3.1 | -5.9 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Boys | 5 | 16 | 11.3 | +4.7 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | +10 | 5.0 | +5.0 | 11 | 9.4 | +1.6 |
| 2 | Sion | 5 | 12 | 9.1 | +2.9 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | +2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 |
| 3 | St. Gallen | 5 | 9 | 9.8 | -0.8 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 | +0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 |
| 4 | Lugano | 4 | 13 | 6.6 | +6.4 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | +10 | 1.4 | +8.6 | 12 | 6.6 | +5.4 |
| 5 | Thun | 6 | 15 | 9.3 | +5.7 | 16 | 12.4 | +3.6 | -1 | -3.1 | +2.1 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Basel | 5 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | +1 | -1.5 | +2.5 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 |
| 7 | Servette | 5 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | +0 | -1.9 | +1.9 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | Grasshopper | 5 | 6 | 8.7 | -2.7 | 13 | 11.2 | +1.8 | -7 | -2.5 | -4.5 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 |
| 9 | Vaduz | 5 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 | -6 | -2.5 | -3.5 | 0 | 5.5 | -5.5 |
| 10 | Zürich | 5 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | 12 | 11.9 | +0.1 | -5 | -4.1 | -0.9 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Lausanne Sport | 5 | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | -3 | -3.8 | +0.8 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| 12 | Luzern | 5 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 | 13 | 14.3 | -1.3 | -7 | -7.1 | +0.1 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Boys | 5 | 14 | 13.9 | +0.1 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | +5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 11 | 10.1 | +0.9 |
| 2 | Lugano | 5 | 17 | 9.3 | +7.7 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | +13 | 3.3 | +9.7 | 13 | 9.1 | +3.9 |
| 3 | Vaduz | 5 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | +2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 |
| 4 | St. Gallen | 5 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | -1 | 1.3 | -2.3 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 |
| 5 | Sion | 5 | 12 | 10.7 | +1.3 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | +4 | 1.4 | +2.6 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 |
| 6 | Luzern | 5 | 12 | 11.7 | +0.3 | 13 | 11.0 | +2.0 | -1 | 0.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 7 | Servette | 5 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | +3 | -0.8 | +3.8 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 8 | Thun | 5 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | 13 | 10.4 | +2.6 | -5 | -1.0 | -4.0 | 3 | 6.4 | -3.4 |
| 9 | Grasshopper | 5 | 6 | 9.8 | -3.8 | 14 | 12.3 | +1.7 | -8 | -2.5 | -5.5 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| 10 | Zürich | 5 | 11 | 7.8 | +3.2 | 10 | 10.8 | -0.8 | +1 | -3.0 | +4.0 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 |
| 11 | Lausanne Sport | 5 | 1 | 4.6 | -3.6 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 | -8 | -4.5 | -3.5 | 1 | 4.1 | -3.1 |
| 12 | Basel | 5 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | 13 | 10.1 | +2.9 | -6 | -5.1 | -0.9 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 |
Lugano are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Super League in 2026/2027, with 31 goals from chances worth 18.1 xG, a gap of 12.9. Young Boys are next on 7.9.
Grasshopper are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Super League in 2026/2027, with 13 goals from chances worth 18.1 xG, a shortfall of 5.1. St. Gallen are next on 3.2.
Lugano are the luckiest side in the Super League in 2026/2027, with 28 points from performances worth 16.6 xPts, 11.4 more than their chances deserved. Young Boys are next on 2.8.
Vaduz are the unluckiest side in the Super League in 2026/2027, with 9 points from performances worth 14.7 xPts, 5.7 short of what they deserved. Grasshopper are next on 3.8.
Young Boys would be top of the Super League in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 19.2 xPts from 25.1 xG created and 14.4 conceded across ten matches. St. Gallen are next on 16.9.
Young Boys have created the most xG in the Super League in 2026/2027, 25.1 from ten matches, 2.5 a game against a competition average of 1.8. Sion are next on 22.0.
Lausanne Sport have created the least xG in the Super League in 2026/2027, 9.4 from ten matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.8. Basel are next on 12.7.
Grasshopper have conceded the most xG in the Super League in 2026/2027, 22.1 from ten matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.8. Thun are next on 21.9.
Lugano have conceded the least xG in the Super League in 2026/2027, 13.9 from ten matches, 1.4 a game against a competition average of 1.8. Young Boys are next on 14.4.
Super League teams have averaged 1.76 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 60 matches played, and have scored 1.90 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.62 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Super League teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.91 a game against 1.61 away, a home advantage of +0.30, against +0.22 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Boys | 10 | 33 | 25.1 | +7.9 | 18 | 14.4 | +3.6 | +15 | 10.7 | +4.3 | 22 | 19.2 | +2.8 |
| 2 | St. Gallen | 10 | 17 | 20.2 | -3.2 | 19 | 14.8 | +4.2 | -2 | 5.4 | -7.4 | 16 | 16.9 | -0.9 |
| 3 | Sion | 10 | 23 | 22.0 | +1.0 | 17 | 16.8 | +0.2 | +6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | 19 | 16.8 | +2.2 |
| 4 | Lugano | 10 | 31 | 18.1 | +12.9 | 7 | 13.9 | -6.9 | +24 | 4.2 | +19.8 | 28 | 16.6 | +11.4 |
| 5 | Vaduz | 10 | 21 | 18.9 | +2.1 | 21 | 17.9 | +3.1 | +0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 9 | 14.7 | -5.7 |
| 6 | Servette | 10 | 14 | 16.4 | -2.4 | 13 | 16.0 | -3.0 | +1 | 0.3 | +0.7 | 13 | 14.4 | -1.4 |
| 7 | Luzern | 10 | 17 | 19.2 | -2.2 | 22 | 21.4 | +0.6 | -5 | -2.2 | -2.8 | 12 | 12.9 | -0.9 |
| 8 | Zürich | 10 | 18 | 15.4 | +2.6 | 22 | 19.5 | +2.5 | -4 | -4.1 | +0.1 | 14 | 12.0 | +2.0 |
| 9 | Basel | 10 | 17 | 12.7 | +4.3 | 20 | 16.4 | +3.6 | -3 | -3.7 | +0.7 | 13 | 11.8 | +1.2 |
| 10 | Grasshopper | 10 | 13 | 18.1 | -5.1 | 26 | 22.1 | +3.9 | -13 | -4.0 | -9.0 | 8 | 11.8 | -3.8 |
| 11 | Thun | 10 | 17 | 15.7 | +1.3 | 27 | 21.9 | +5.1 | -10 | -6.2 | -3.8 | 10 | 10.9 | -0.9 |
| 12 | Lausanne Sport | 10 | 7 | 9.4 | -2.4 | 16 | 16.0 | +0.0 | -9 | -6.6 | -2.4 | 6 | 9.3 | -3.3 |