Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 10 October 2026, after the last game
Raków Częstochowa have the biggest shortfall in the Ekstraklasa: 3 points from chances worth 9.0 xPts, a gap of 6.0. At the other end, Górnik Zabrze have taken 22 points from an xPts figure of 16.1, 5.9 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznań | 5 | 11 | 12.5 | -1.5 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 | +9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | 13 | 11.0 | +2.0 |
| 2 | Wisła Kraków | 5 | 10 | 10.1 | -0.1 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 | +7 | 4.3 | +2.7 | 15 | 9.5 | +5.5 |
| 3 | Cracovia Kraków | 5 | 8 | 10.6 | -2.6 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | +1 | 4.0 | -3.0 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | Pogoń Szczecin | 5 | 8 | 9.8 | -1.8 | 5 | 8.0 | -3.0 | +3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 |
| 5 | Zagłębie Lubin | 5 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | +2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 |
| 6 | Widzew Lodz | 5 | 7 | 8.5 | -1.5 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 | -2 | 1.0 | -3.0 | 3 | 7.3 | -4.3 |
| 7 | Legia Warszawa | 4 | 10 | 7.3 | +2.7 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | +7 | 2.3 | +4.7 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 8 | Motor Lublin | 5 | 4 | 8.2 | -4.2 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 | -3 | -0.2 | -2.8 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 5 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 |
| 10 | Radomiak Radom | 5 | 5 | 8.8 | -3.8 | 7 | 9.9 | -2.9 | -2 | -1.1 | -0.9 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 |
| 11 | Górnik Zabrze | 4 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | +2 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 9 | 6.1 | +2.9 |
| 12 | Katowice | 3 | 11 | 7.6 | +3.4 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | +8 | 3.2 | +4.8 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 13 | Raków Częstochowa | 6 | 9 | 8.5 | +0.5 | 17 | 14.0 | +3.0 | -8 | -5.5 | -2.5 | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 |
| 14 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 4 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | -2 | -0.1 | -1.9 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 15 | Piast Gliwice | 5 | 12 | 6.6 | +5.4 | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 | +2 | -3.2 | +5.2 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 |
| 16 | Wisła Płock | 3 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | +0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 17 | Śląsk Wrocław | 4 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 | +0 | -1.6 | +1.6 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 3 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | +2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Górnik Zabrze | 5 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | +6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | 13 | 10.1 | +2.9 |
| 2 | Wieczysta Kraków | 6 | 9 | 10.0 | -1.0 | 14 | 10.4 | +3.6 | -5 | -0.4 | -4.6 | 4 | 8.3 | -4.3 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 5 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 7.4 | -2.4 | +4 | 1.4 | +2.6 | 11 | 7.5 | +3.5 |
| 4 | Katowice | 6 | 9 | 9.4 | -0.4 | 11 | 11.5 | -0.5 | -2 | -2.1 | +0.1 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 |
| 5 | Wisła Kraków | 4 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 | 9 | 5.7 | +3.3 | -2 | 2.7 | -4.7 | 2 | 6.7 | -4.7 |
| 6 | Wisła Płock | 6 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 | 12 | 11.0 | +1.0 | -6 | -2.7 | -3.3 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 |
| 7 | Cracovia Kraków | 5 | 4 | 7.6 | -3.6 | 8 | 8.5 | -0.5 | -4 | -0.9 | -3.1 | 2 | 6.3 | -4.3 |
| 8 | Śląsk Wrocław | 5 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | -4 | -1.6 | -2.4 | 1 | 6.2 | -5.2 |
| 9 | Widzew Lodz | 4 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | +2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Zagłębie Lubin | 5 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | -3 | -2.2 | -0.8 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 |
| 11 | Piast Gliwice | 4 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
| 12 | Korona Kielce | 4 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | 3 | 7.1 | -4.1 | +3 | -1.0 | +4.0 | 9 | 4.9 | +4.1 |
| 13 | Motor Lublin | 4 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | -3 | -2.1 | -0.9 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 |
| 14 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 4 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | +1 | -0.7 | +1.7 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 |
| 15 | Lech Poznań | 3 | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | +1 | -0.4 | +1.4 | 6 | 3.9 | +2.1 |
| 16 | Pogoń Szczecin | 3 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | +3 | -0.7 | +3.7 | 7 | 3.6 | +3.4 |
| 17 | Raków Częstochowa | 4 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | 8 | 12.0 | -4.0 | -4 | -5.5 | +1.5 | 0 | 3.1 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Radomiak Radom | 4 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | 13 | 9.7 | +3.3 | -11 | -5.5 | -5.5 | 1 | 2.7 | -1.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Górnik Zabrze | 5 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | +5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 13 | 10.6 | +2.4 |
| 2 | Lech Poznań | 5 | 12 | 10.4 | +1.6 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | +6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | 12 | 9.3 | +2.7 |
| 3 | Wisła Kraków | 5 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | +5 | 2.7 | +2.3 | 11 | 8.4 | +2.6 |
| 4 | Pogoń Szczecin | 5 | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | +3 | 1.6 | +1.4 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 |
| 5 | Wieczysta Kraków | 5 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | -1 | 1.1 | -2.1 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 5 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 | +6 | 0.9 | +5.1 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 |
| 7 | Katowice | 5 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4 | 10 | 9.0 | +1.0 | +1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 |
| 8 | Legia Warszawa | 5 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 | +3 | 0.5 | +2.5 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 |
| 9 | Wisła Płock | 5 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | Cracovia Kraków | 5 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 | -3 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 |
| 11 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 5 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | 10 | 8.6 | +1.4 | -1 | 0.7 | -1.7 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 |
| 12 | Zagłębie Lubin | 5 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 | -2 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |
| 13 | Widzew Lodz | 5 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce | 5 | 8 | 8.1 | -0.1 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | +2 | -0.7 | +2.7 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 |
| 15 | Motor Lublin | 5 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | 8 | 8.1 | -0.1 | -4 | -1.9 | -2.1 | 2 | 5.7 | -3.7 |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 5 | 3 | 7.9 | -4.9 | 8 | 10.8 | -2.8 | -5 | -2.9 | -2.1 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 |
| 17 | Śląsk Wrocław | 5 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 10 | 10.3 | -0.3 | -3 | -2.9 | -0.1 | 2 | 5.5 | -3.5 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 5 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 12 | 12.7 | -0.7 | -5 | -5.3 | +0.3 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 |
Piast Gliwice are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Ekstraklasa in 2026/2027, with 16 goals from chances worth 12.8 xG, a gap of 3.2. Legia Warszawa and Katowice are next on 3.0.
Cracovia Kraków are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Ekstraklasa in 2026/2027, with 9 goals from chances worth 15.9 xG, a shortfall of 6.9. Radomiak Radom are next on 6.0.
Górnik Zabrze are the luckiest side in the Ekstraklasa in 2026/2027, with 22 points from performances worth 16.1 xPts, 5.9 more than their chances deserved. Legia Warszawa are next on 4.5.
Raków Częstochowa are the unluckiest side in the Ekstraklasa in 2026/2027, with 3 points from performances worth 9.0 xPts, 6.0 short of what they deserved. Cracovia Kraków and Motor Lublin are next on 5.2.
Wisła Kraków would be top of the Ekstraklasa in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 16.2 xPts from 18.5 xG created and 11.5 conceded across nine matches. Górnik Zabrze are next on 16.1.
Wisła Kraków have created the most xG in the Ekstraklasa in 2026/2027, 18.5 from nine matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Katowice are next on 17.0.
Zagłębie Lubin have created the least xG in the Ekstraklasa in 2026/2027, 12.6 from nine matches, 1.4 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Korona Kielce, Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia Białystok are next on 12.8.
Raków Częstochowa have conceded the most xG in the Ekstraklasa in 2026/2027, 26.0 from ten matches, 2.6 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Radomiak Radom are next on 19.6.
Lech Poznań have conceded the least xG in the Ekstraklasa in 2026/2027, 8.2 from eight matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Górnik Zabrze are next on 9.4.
Ekstraklasa teams have averaged 1.62 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 80 matches played, and have scored 1.48 goals a game from it.
Ekstraklasa teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.72 a game against 1.53 away, a home advantage of +0.19.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wisła Kraków | 9 | 17 | 18.5 | -1.5 | 12 | 11.5 | +0.5 | +5 | 7.1 | -2.1 | 17 | 16.2 | +0.8 |
| 2 | Górnik Zabrze | 9 | 16 | 15.2 | +0.8 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 | +8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | 22 | 16.1 | +5.9 |
| 3 | Cracovia Kraków | 10 | 12 | 18.2 | -6.2 | 15 | 15.1 | -0.1 | -3 | 3.1 | -6.1 | 11 | 15.2 | -4.2 |
| 4 | Lech Poznań | 8 | 17 | 15.8 | +1.2 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 | +10 | 7.6 | +2.4 | 19 | 14.9 | +4.1 |
| 5 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 19 | 16.0 | +3.0 | 8 | 12.3 | -4.3 | +11 | 3.7 | +7.3 | 19 | 14.5 | +4.5 |
| 6 | Widzew Lodz | 9 | 13 | 14.5 | -1.5 | 13 | 12.7 | +0.3 | +0 | 1.9 | -1.9 | 9 | 13.5 | -4.5 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin | 10 | 12 | 13.7 | -1.7 | 13 | 14.4 | -1.4 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 15 | 13.5 | +1.5 |
| 8 | Katowice | 9 | 20 | 17.0 | +3.0 | 14 | 15.9 | -1.9 | +6 | 1.0 | +5.0 | 15 | 13.2 | +1.8 |
| 9 | Wieczysta Kraków | 9 | 14 | 14.7 | -0.7 | 17 | 14.5 | +2.5 | -3 | 0.2 | -3.2 | 8 | 12.8 | -4.8 |
| 10 | Pogoń Szczecin | 8 | 12 | 13.0 | -1.0 | 6 | 11.9 | -5.9 | +6 | 1.1 | +4.9 | 15 | 11.8 | +3.2 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 9 | 12 | 12.8 | -0.8 | 10 | 14.1 | -4.1 | +2 | -1.3 | +3.3 | 15 | 11.3 | +3.7 |
| 12 | Wisła Płock | 9 | 9 | 13.2 | -4.2 | 15 | 15.0 | +0.0 | -6 | -1.8 | -4.2 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 9 | 13.3 | -4.3 | 15 | 15.6 | -0.6 | -6 | -2.3 | -3.7 | 6 | 11.2 | -5.2 |
| 14 | Śląsk Wrocław | 9 | 11 | 13.0 | -2.0 | 15 | 16.2 | -1.2 | -4 | -3.2 | -0.8 | 6 | 10.9 | -4.9 |
| 15 | Piast Gliwice | 9 | 16 | 12.8 | +3.2 | 15 | 16.6 | -1.6 | +1 | -3.8 | +4.8 | 13 | 10.6 | +2.4 |
| 16 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 8 | 12 | 12.8 | -0.8 | 13 | 13.6 | -0.6 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 12 | 9.8 | +2.2 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 7 | 13.0 | -6.0 | 20 | 19.6 | +0.4 | -13 | -6.6 | -6.4 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 10 | 13 | 15.0 | -2.0 | 25 | 26.0 | -1.0 | -12 | -11.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 9.0 | -6.0 |