Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 31 March 2026, after the last game
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Syria | 3 | 12 | 7.5 | +4.5 | 2 | 0.7 | +1.3 | +10 | 6.8 | +3.2 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 |
| 2 | Thailand | 3 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | +4 | 5.8 | -1.8 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 |
| 3 | Yemen | 3 | 16 | 10.1 | +5.9 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | +15 | 9.3 | +5.7 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 |
| 4 | Sri Lanka | 4 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 2.4 | +2.6 | -1 | 2.8 | -3.8 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | Philippines | 3 | 9 | 6.1 | +2.9 | 4 | 1.9 | +2.1 | +5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 6 | Vietnam | 3 | 11 | 6.8 | +4.2 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | +9 | 4.8 | +4.2 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 7 | Tajikistan | 3 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | +3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 |
| 8 | Turkmenistan | 3 | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | +5 | 1.6 | +3.4 | 9 | 5.3 | +3.7 |
| 9 | India | 3 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 | +0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 |
| 10 | Lebanon | 2 | 7 | 4.2 | +2.8 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | +7 | 3.4 | +3.6 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 11 | Hong Kong | 3 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | +0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 12 | Singapore | 3 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 | 1 | 3.4 | -2.4 | +1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 |
| 13 | East Timor | 4 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 10 | 6.4 | +3.6 | -4 | -1.8 | -2.2 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 |
| 14 | Myanmar | 3 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
| 15 | Afghanistan | 3 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | -2 | -0.8 | -1.2 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 |
| 16 | Maldives | 3 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 | -4 | -0.9 | -3.1 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| 17 | Malaysia | 1 | 5 | 3.6 | +1.4 | 1 | 0.1 | +0.9 | +4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 |
| 18 | Pakistan | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | -6 | -3.8 | -2.2 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 |
| 19 | Bangladesh | 3 | 5 | 2.8 | +2.2 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | -1 | -1.8 | +0.8 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 20 | Bhutan | 3 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | -3 | -2.3 | -0.7 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 |
| 21 | Chinese Taipei | 3 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7 | 11 | 3.5 | +7.5 | -8 | -2.2 | -5.8 | 0 | 2.6 | -2.6 |
| 22 | Mongolia | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | +2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 |
| 23 | Macao | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 |
| 24 | Brunei Darussalam | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 | -4 | -7.4 | +3.4 | 3 | 1.1 | +1.9 |
| 25 | Nepal | 3 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 3 | 6.5 | -3.5 | -3 | -5.6 | +2.6 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 |
| 26 | Cambodia | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | +1.2 | 2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | +0 | -1.3 | +1.3 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 |
| 27 | Laos | 2 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 | -5 | -5.8 | +0.8 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Syria | 3 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | +9 | 7.3 | +1.7 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 |
| 2 | Malaysia | 3 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7 | +2 | 6.1 | -4.1 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 |
| 3 | Philippines | 3 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.3 | 2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | +5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |
| 4 | Tajikistan | 3 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | +8 | 3.6 | +4.4 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 |
| 5 | Lebanon | 3 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | +7 | 3.6 | +3.4 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 |
| 6 | Vietnam | 2 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | +3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 7 | Thailand | 3 | 11 | 4.7 | +6.3 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | +7 | 2.2 | +4.8 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
| 8 | Yemen | 2 | 2 | 6.3 | -4.3 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | +2 | 6.0 | -4.0 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 |
| 9 | Sri Lanka | 4 | 6 | 3.9 | +2.1 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | +0 | -1.3 | +1.3 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 10 | Bangladesh | 3 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | -1 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 11 | Singapore | 3 | 6 | 3.6 | +2.4 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | +3 | 0.0 | +3.0 | 9 | 4.0 | +5.0 |
| 12 | Hong Kong | 3 | 5 | 3.3 | +1.7 | 5 | 3.4 | +1.6 | +0 | -0.2 | +0.2 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| 13 | India | 3 | 1 | 3.3 | -2.3 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | -2 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 |
| 14 | Myanmar | 3 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 | -2 | -1.1 | -0.9 | 6 | 3.6 | +2.4 |
| 15 | Turkmenistan | 3 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | -1 | -1.4 | +0.4 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
| 16 | Afghanistan | 3 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 3.7 | +3.3 | -5 | -2.6 | -2.4 | 1 | 2.3 | -1.3 |
| 17 | Bhutan | 3 | 2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 11 | 7.7 | +3.3 | -9 | -5.5 | -3.5 | 0 | 2.3 | -2.3 |
| 18 | Brunei Darussalam | 4 | 2 | 1.3 | +0.7 | 16 | 8.3 | +7.7 | -14 | -7.0 | -7.0 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 |
| 19 | Laos | 3 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 | -8 | -5.5 | -2.5 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 |
| 20 | East Timor | 4 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | -6 | -5.3 | -0.7 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| 21 | Chinese Taipei | 3 | 2 | 1.3 | +0.7 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9 | -6 | -3.8 | -2.2 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 |
| 22 | Pakistan | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | -3 | -5.7 | +2.7 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 |
| 23 | Mongolia | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 4 | 0.8 | +3.2 | -3 | -0.2 | -2.8 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 |
| 24 | Maldives | 3 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 | -6 | -7.0 | +1.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| 25 | Nepal | 1 | 1 | 0.1 | +0.9 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 | -2 | -2.2 | +0.2 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| 26 | Cambodia | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0 | 2.6 | -2.6 | +0 | -2.5 | +2.5 | 1 | 0.1 | +0.9 |
The Philippines overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2027, with 16 goals from chances worth 10.7 xG, a gap of 5.3. Syria were next on 5.1.
India underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2027, with 4 goals from chances worth 7.3 xG, a shortfall of 3.3. Pakistan were next on 2.0.
Singapore were the luckiest side in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2027, with 14 points from performances worth 8.4 xPts, 5.6 more than their chances deserved. Myanmar were next on 4.6.
Chinese Taipei were the unluckiest side in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2027, with no points from performances worth 4.2 xPts, 4.2 short of what they deserved. Afghanistan were next on 3.9.
Syria were also top of the Asian Cup Qualification in 2027 on expected points, with 15.9 xPts from 15.9 xG created and 1.7 conceded across six matches. The Philippines were next on 13.4.
Yemen created the most xG in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2027, 16.4 from five matches, 3.3 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Syria were next on 15.9.
Macao created the least xG in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2027, 0.6 from one match, 0.6 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Cambodia were next on 0.9.
Brunei Darussalam conceded the most xG in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2027, 16.6 from seven matches, 2.4 a game against a competition average of 1.2. East Timor were next on 14.1.
Macao conceded the least xG in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2027, 0.7 from one match, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Yemen were next on 1.0.
Asian Cup Qualification teams averaged 1.25 xG a game in 2027, from the 73 matches played, and scored 1.48 goals a game from it. That is down from 1.44 xG a game in 2023.
Asian Cup Qualification teams created more xG at home in 2027, 1.35 a game against 1.14 away, a home advantage of +0.20, against +0.37 in 2023.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Syria | 6 | 21 | 15.9 | +5.1 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | +19 | 14.2 | +4.8 | 18 | 15.9 | +2.1 |
| 2 | Philippines | 6 | 16 | 10.7 | +5.3 | 6 | 2.8 | +3.2 | +10 | 8.0 | +2.0 | 14 | 13.4 | +0.6 |
| 3 | Thailand | 6 | 16 | 11.1 | +4.9 | 5 | 3.1 | +1.9 | +11 | 8.0 | +3.0 | 15 | 13.3 | +1.7 |
| 4 | Yemen | 5 | 18 | 16.4 | +1.6 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.0 | +17 | 15.3 | +1.7 | 11 | 12.5 | -1.5 |
| 5 | Vietnam | 5 | 14 | 11.8 | +2.2 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 | +12 | 9.4 | +2.6 | 15 | 12.2 | +2.8 |
| 6 | Tajikistan | 6 | 14 | 10.0 | +4.0 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | +11 | 6.6 | +4.4 | 14 | 12.1 | +1.9 |
| 7 | Sri Lanka | 8 | 10 | 9.2 | +0.8 | 11 | 7.7 | +3.3 | -1 | 1.5 | -2.5 | 11 | 11.8 | -0.8 |
| 8 | Lebanon | 5 | 14 | 9.0 | +5.0 | 0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | +14 | 7.0 | +7.0 | 13 | 11.2 | +1.8 |
| 9 | Malaysia | 4 | 10 | 11.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 1.4 | +2.6 | +6 | 9.7 | -3.7 | 9 | 10.2 | -1.2 |
| 10 | India | 6 | 4 | 7.3 | -3.3 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | -2 | 0.5 | -2.5 | 5 | 8.7 | -3.7 |
| 11 | Hong Kong | 6 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 | +0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 8 | 8.5 | -0.5 |
| 12 | Singapore | 6 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 | +4 | 0.7 | +3.3 | 14 | 8.4 | +5.6 |
| 13 | Turkmenistan | 6 | 11 | 6.7 | +4.3 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | +4 | 0.2 | +3.8 | 12 | 8.4 | +3.6 |
| 14 | Myanmar | 6 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 11 | 8.5 | +2.5 | -3 | -1.2 | -1.8 | 12 | 7.4 | +4.6 |
| 15 | Bangladesh | 6 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 | -2 | -1.8 | -0.2 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 |
| 16 | East Timor | 8 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | 18 | 14.1 | +3.9 | -10 | -7.1 | -2.9 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 |
| 17 | Afghanistan | 6 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 11 | 7.3 | +3.7 | -7 | -3.4 | -3.6 | 2 | 5.9 | -3.9 |
| 18 | Bhutan | 6 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | 16 | 11.6 | +4.4 | -12 | -7.8 | -4.2 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 |
| 19 | Pakistan | 6 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | 11 | 13.6 | -2.6 | -9 | -9.6 | +0.6 | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 |
| 20 | Chinese Taipei | 6 | 5 | 2.6 | +2.4 | 19 | 8.6 | +10.4 | -14 | -5.9 | -8.1 | 0 | 4.2 | -4.2 |
| 21 | Maldives | 6 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | 13 | 12.5 | +0.5 | -10 | -7.8 | -2.2 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 22 | Brunei Darussalam | 7 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | 22 | 16.6 | +5.4 | -18 | -14.4 | -3.6 | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 |
| 23 | Mongolia | 2 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 | 4 | 2.2 | +1.8 | -1 | 0.4 | -1.4 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 |
| 24 | Laos | 5 | 2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | 15 | 13.4 | +1.6 | -13 | -11.3 | -1.7 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 |
| 25 | Macao | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 |
| 26 | Nepal | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.0 | 6 | 8.7 | -2.7 | -5 | -7.8 | +2.8 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 |
| 27 | Cambodia | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 | +0 | -3.8 | +3.8 | 2 | 0.7 | +1.3 |