Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 14 June 2022, after the last game
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan | 2 | 5 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | +5 | 8.1 | -3.1 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 |
| 2 | Indonesia | 3 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | +7 | 4.3 | +2.7 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 3 | Palestine | 2 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | +5 | 3.4 | +1.6 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 2 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | +5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 |
| 5 | Kyrgyz Republic | 2 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | +1 | 3.5 | -2.5 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 |
| 6 | Bahrain | 2 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | +3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 |
| 7 | Malaysia | 2 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | +2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 |
| 8 | India | 2 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | +6 | 2.5 | +3.5 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
| 9 | Tajikistan | 1 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | +4 | 2.4 | +1.6 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 10 | Thailand | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | +3 | 1.7 | +1.3 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Myanmar | 2 | 2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 8 | 3.2 | +4.8 | -6 | -1.0 | -5.0 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| 12 | Cambodia | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 | -2 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 13 | Afghanistan | 2 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | -1 | -1.2 | +0.2 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | Philippines | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | +0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 |
| 15 | Hong Kong | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | +1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 |
| 16 | Yemen | 2 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.3 | -7 | -3.4 | -3.6 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 |
| 17 | Turkmenistan | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 | -2 | -0.1 | -1.9 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 |
| 18 | Guam | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | -1 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 |
| 19 | Maldives | 2 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | -3 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 3 | 0.9 | +2.1 |
| 20 | Bangladesh | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | -1 | -1.1 | +0.1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| 21 | Singapore | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | -1 | -1.5 | +0.5 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| 22 | Chinese Taipei | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 | -3 | -1.4 | -1.6 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| 23 | Mongolia | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | -1 | -1.5 | +0.5 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| 24 | Kuwait | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | -1 | -1.9 | +0.9 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| 25 | Sri Lanka | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | -2 | -1.8 | -0.2 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| 26 | Nepal | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | -3 | -3.5 | +0.5 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indonesia | 2 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | +4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
| 2 | Cambodia | 3 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | -1 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| 3 | Thailand | 2 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | +0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 |
| 4 | Palestine | 1 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | +5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 |
| 5 | Jordan | 1 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | +1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 6 | Uzbekistan | 1 | 4 | 2.1 | +1.9 | 0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | +4 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 7 | Kuwait | 2 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | +0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 8 | Philippines | 2 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | -3 | -0.4 | -2.6 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 9 | Hong Kong | 2 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | -1 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 10 | Tajikistan | 2 | 1 | 2.7 | -1.7 | 0 | 2.6 | -2.6 | +1 | 0.1 | +0.9 | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 |
| 11 | Turkmenistan | 2 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | +0 | -0.2 | +0.2 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 12 | Kyrgyz Republic | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | +2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 |
| 13 | Sri Lanka | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | -4 | -2.2 | -1.8 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| 14 | India | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | +1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Malaysia | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | +2 | 0.1 | +1.9 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| 16 | Guam | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 2 | 1.2 | +0.8 | -1 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 |
| 17 | Singapore | 2 | 7 | 2.2 | +4.8 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | +3 | -2.6 | +5.6 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6 |
| 18 | Mongolia | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | +1.3 | 1 | 2.7 | -1.7 | +1 | -2.1 | +3.1 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8 |
| 19 | Afghanistan | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | -1 | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 |
| 20 | Bahrain | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | +0.7 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | +1 | -0.8 | +1.8 | 3 | 0.9 | +2.1 |
| 21 | Yemen | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | +0 | -0.5 | +0.5 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 |
| 22 | Bangladesh | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | -5 | -4.3 | -0.7 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| 23 | Chinese Taipei | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 | -1 | -1.8 | +0.8 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| 24 | Maldives | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 | -3 | -1.7 | -1.3 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| 25 | Myanmar | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | -4 | -2.4 | -1.6 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| 26 | Nepal | 2 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 9 | 10.1 | -1.1 | -9 | -9.9 | +0.9 | 0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Singapore overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2023, with 7 goals from chances worth 3.2 xG, a gap of 3.8. India were next on 2.5.
Jordan underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2023, with 6 goals from chances worth 10.9 xG, a shortfall of 4.9. The Kyrgyz Republic were next on 2.6.
Bahrain were the luckiest side in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2023, with 9 points from performances worth 5.5 xPts, 3.5 more than their chances deserved. India were next on 2.7.
Guam, Myanmar and Sri Lanka were the unluckiest sides in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2023, all 2.3 short of their expected points, each taking no points from performances worth 2.3 xPts. Afghanistan were next on 1.8.
Indonesia were also top of the Asian Cup Qualification in 2023 on expected points, with 10.3 xPts from 12.4 xG created and 4.7 conceded across five matches. Jordan were next on 8.3.
Indonesia created the most xG in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2023, 12.4 from five matches, 2.5 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Jordan were next on 10.9.
Mongolia, the Maldives and Chinese Taipei shared the least xG in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2023, all on 1.1 from three matches and 1.1 from three matches and 1.1 from two matches against a competition average of 1.4. Nepal were next on 1.5.
Nepal conceded the most xG in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2023, 14.9 from three matches, 5.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Bangladesh were next on 7.7.
Jordan conceded the least xG in the Asian Cup Qualification in 2023, 0.6 from three matches, 0.2 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Uzbekistan were next on 0.7.
Asian Cup Qualification teams averaged 1.44 xG a game in 2023, from the 40 matches played, and scored 1.43 goals a game from it.
Asian Cup Qualification teams created more xG at home in 2023, 1.63 a game against 1.26 away, a home advantage of +0.37.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indonesia | 5 | 14 | 12.4 | +1.6 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | +11 | 7.7 | +3.3 | 12 | 10.3 | +1.7 |
| 2 | Jordan | 3 | 6 | 10.9 | -4.9 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | +6 | 10.3 | -4.3 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 |
| 3 | Palestine | 3 | 10 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | +10 | 7.3 | +2.7 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 3 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | +9 | 5.8 | +3.2 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 |
| 5 | Kyrgyz Republic | 3 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 | +3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 |
| 6 | India | 3 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | +7 | 3.3 | +3.7 | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 |
| 7 | Malaysia | 3 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | +4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | Thailand | 3 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | +3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 |
| 9 | Cambodia | 5 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | -3 | -1.3 | -1.7 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 |
| 10 | Bahrain | 3 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 | +4 | 1.8 | +2.2 | 9 | 5.5 | +3.5 |
| 11 | Tajikistan | 3 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | +5 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 |
| 12 | Philippines | 3 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | -3 | 0.2 | -3.2 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 13 | Hong Kong | 3 | 5 | 3.4 | +1.6 | 5 | 3.3 | +1.7 | +0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 |
| 14 | Turkmenistan | 3 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | -2 | -0.3 | -1.7 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 |
| 15 | Kuwait | 3 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | -1 | -1.4 | +0.4 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 16 | Afghanistan | 3 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | -2 | -1.8 | -0.2 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 |
| 17 | Yemen | 3 | 0 | 1.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | -7 | -3.9 | -3.1 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 |
| 18 | Guam | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 | -2 | -0.4 | -1.6 | 0 | 2.3 | -2.3 |
| 19 | Myanmar | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 12 | 5.9 | +6.1 | -10 | -3.4 | -6.6 | 0 | 2.3 | -2.3 |
| 20 | Sri Lanka | 3 | 0 | 1.7 | -1.7 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | -6 | -4.0 | -2.0 | 0 | 2.3 | -2.3 |
| 21 | Singapore | 3 | 7 | 3.2 | +3.8 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 | +2 | -4.1 | +6.1 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 22 | Mongolia | 3 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | +0 | -3.6 | +3.6 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
| 23 | Bangladesh | 3 | 2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | -6 | -5.4 | -0.6 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 |
| 24 | Maldives | 3 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | -6 | -4.5 | -1.5 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8 |
| 25 | Chinese Taipei | 2 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | -4 | -3.2 | -0.8 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| 26 | Nepal | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 13 | 14.9 | -1.9 | -12 | -13.4 | +1.4 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 |