Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 8 November 2026, after the last game
Kalmar have the biggest shortfall in the Allsvenskan: 26 points from chances worth 40.6 xPts, a gap of 14.6. At the other end, Västerås SK have taken 45 points from an xPts figure of 33.6, 11.4 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby | 14 | 40 | 33.1 | +6.9 | 8 | 14.6 | -6.6 | +32 | 18.5 | +13.5 | 34 | 29.0 | +5.0 |
| 2 | Djurgården | 14 | 34 | 30.6 | +3.4 | 17 | 14.8 | +2.2 | +17 | 15.9 | +1.1 | 23 | 27.7 | -4.7 |
| 3 | Sirius | 14 | 30 | 29.8 | +0.2 | 19 | 16.2 | +2.8 | +11 | 13.6 | -2.6 | 27 | 26.2 | +0.8 |
| 4 | Häcken | 14 | 26 | 28.6 | -2.6 | 18 | 17.6 | +0.4 | +8 | 11.0 | -3.0 | 26 | 25.8 | +0.2 |
| 5 | GAIS | 14 | 19 | 25.1 | -6.1 | 7 | 17.0 | -10.0 | +12 | 8.1 | +3.9 | 23 | 24.2 | -1.2 |
| 6 | Elfsborg | 14 | 23 | 23.0 | +0.0 | 10 | 16.5 | -6.5 | +13 | 6.5 | +6.5 | 28 | 23.4 | +4.6 |
| 7 | IFK Göteborg | 14 | 17 | 23.1 | -6.1 | 14 | 17.2 | -3.2 | +3 | 5.9 | -2.9 | 23 | 22.8 | +0.2 |
| 8 | Kalmar | 14 | 15 | 17.5 | -2.5 | 21 | 15.2 | +5.8 | -6 | 2.3 | -8.3 | 20 | 21.2 | -1.2 |
| 9 | Malmö FF | 14 | 26 | 21.4 | +4.6 | 23 | 18.4 | +4.6 | +3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | 16 | 20.9 | -4.9 |
| 10 | AIK | 14 | 24 | 28.3 | -4.3 | 31 | 27.0 | +4.0 | -7 | 1.2 | -8.2 | 18 | 20.6 | -2.6 |
| 11 | Västerås SK | 14 | 20 | 18.0 | +2.0 | 15 | 18.4 | -3.4 | +5 | -0.4 | +5.4 | 22 | 19.1 | +2.9 |
| 12 | Brommapojkarna | 14 | 15 | 18.1 | -3.1 | 15 | 20.2 | -5.2 | +0 | -2.1 | +2.1 | 17 | 18.2 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Mjällby | 14 | 12 | 19.7 | -7.7 | 21 | 22.7 | -1.7 | -9 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 12 | 17.7 | -5.7 |
| 14 | Degerfors | 14 | 13 | 18.4 | -5.4 | 22 | 21.6 | +0.4 | -9 | -3.2 | -5.8 | 11 | 17.2 | -6.2 |
| 15 | Örgryte | 14 | 22 | 17.9 | +4.1 | 24 | 26.7 | -2.7 | -2 | -8.8 | +6.8 | 13 | 15.3 | -2.3 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 14 | 11 | 14.5 | -3.5 | 23 | 27.9 | -4.9 | -12 | -13.4 | +1.4 | 14 | 11.9 | +2.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby | 14 | 20 | 28.6 | -8.6 | 15 | 14.5 | +0.5 | +5 | 14.0 | -9.0 | 24 | 27.5 | -3.5 |
| 2 | Sirius | 14 | 28 | 26.2 | +1.8 | 16 | 16.1 | -0.1 | +12 | 10.0 | +2.0 | 31 | 25.1 | +5.9 |
| 3 | Häcken | 14 | 24 | 23.1 | +0.9 | 15 | 18.3 | -3.3 | +9 | 4.8 | +4.2 | 23 | 22.6 | +0.4 |
| 4 | Djurgården | 14 | 22 | 22.2 | -0.2 | 10 | 17.9 | -7.9 | +12 | 4.3 | +7.7 | 29 | 21.8 | +7.2 |
| 5 | GAIS | 14 | 17 | 22.3 | -5.3 | 21 | 19.9 | +1.1 | -4 | 2.4 | -6.4 | 17 | 20.6 | -3.6 |
| 6 | Kalmar | 14 | 9 | 20.8 | -11.8 | 21 | 22.4 | -1.4 | -12 | -1.6 | -10.4 | 6 | 19.4 | -13.4 |
| 7 | Elfsborg | 14 | 19 | 19.1 | -0.1 | 21 | 19.0 | +2.0 | -2 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 18 | 19.0 | -1.0 |
| 8 | IFK Göteborg | 14 | 19 | 21.2 | -2.2 | 32 | 23.6 | +8.4 | -13 | -2.4 | -10.6 | 16 | 18.1 | -2.1 |
| 9 | Brommapojkarna | 14 | 24 | 18.8 | +5.2 | 29 | 23.0 | +6.0 | -5 | -4.1 | -0.9 | 18 | 16.8 | +1.2 |
| 10 | Malmö FF | 14 | 16 | 17.6 | -1.6 | 13 | 23.0 | -10.0 | +3 | -5.4 | +8.4 | 25 | 16.1 | +8.9 |
| 11 | AIK | 14 | 22 | 16.9 | +5.1 | 18 | 24.5 | -6.5 | +4 | -7.6 | +11.6 | 23 | 15.0 | +8.0 |
| 12 | Västerås SK | 14 | 20 | 19.0 | +1.0 | 23 | 27.8 | -4.8 | -3 | -8.8 | +5.8 | 23 | 14.5 | +8.5 |
| 13 | Mjällby | 14 | 18 | 15.3 | +2.7 | 22 | 24.4 | -2.4 | -4 | -9.1 | +5.1 | 16 | 13.7 | +2.3 |
| 14 | Halmstad | 14 | 9 | 16.6 | -7.6 | 29 | 32.1 | -3.1 | -20 | -15.5 | -4.5 | 6 | 11.4 | -5.4 |
| 15 | Degerfors | 14 | 10 | 12.3 | -2.3 | 26 | 28.4 | -2.4 | -16 | -16.1 | +0.1 | 9 | 10.7 | -1.7 |
| 16 | Örgryte | 14 | 11 | 12.2 | -1.2 | 36 | 32.5 | +3.5 | -25 | -20.2 | -4.8 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby | 5 | 11 | 8.9 | +2.1 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | +9 | 4.1 | +4.9 | 15 | 9.9 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Djurgården | 5 | 8 | 8.4 | -0.4 | 6 | 3.6 | +2.4 | +2 | 4.8 | -2.8 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 |
| 3 | Västerås SK | 5 | 6 | 9.9 | -3.9 | 2 | 5.5 | -3.5 | +4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 |
| 4 | Sirius | 5 | 5 | 10.2 | -5.2 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | -2 | 3.8 | -5.8 | 4 | 9.2 | -5.2 |
| 5 | Elfsborg | 5 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | 9 | 5.3 | +3.7 | -2 | 2.6 | -4.6 | 6 | 8.6 | -2.6 |
| 6 | Häcken | 5 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | 3 | 6.8 | -3.8 | +5 | 2.7 | +2.3 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Kalmar | 5 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | -2 | 0.8 | -2.8 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 |
| 8 | Brommapojkarna | 5 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 | +0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 |
| 9 | GAIS | 5 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | +1 | -0.4 | +1.4 | 10 | 6.6 | +3.4 |
| 10 | AIK | 5 | 10 | 7.6 | +2.4 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 | +1 | -1.0 | +2.0 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 |
| 11 | Mjällby | 5 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | -2 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 |
| 12 | IFK Göteborg | 5 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | -1 | -1.1 | +0.1 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 |
| 13 | Malmö FF | 5 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | 3 | 7.5 | -4.5 | +1 | -2.1 | +3.1 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 |
| 14 | Örgryte | 5 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 | 8 | 10.9 | -2.9 | +0 | -4.9 | +4.9 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 |
| 15 | Degerfors | 5 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 | 13 | 12.7 | +0.3 | -10 | -7.3 | -2.7 | 0 | 3.6 | -3.6 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 5 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | -4 | -5.6 | +1.6 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 |
Västerås SK and Brommapojkarna share the biggest gap between goals and xG in the Allsvenskan in 2026, both on 3.6, Västerås SK 40 goals from 36.4, Brommapojkarna 39 goals from 35.4. Sirius are next on 3.5.
Kalmar are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Allsvenskan in 2026, with 23 goals from chances worth 37.5 xG, a shortfall of 14.5. GAIS are next on 11.4.
Västerås SK are the luckiest side in the Allsvenskan in 2026, with 45 points from performances worth 33.5 xPts, 11.5 more than their chances deserved. Sirius are next on 8.5.
Kalmar are the unluckiest side in the Allsvenskan in 2026, with 23 points from performances worth 39.8 xPts, 16.8 short of what they deserved. Degerfors are next on 7.9.
Hammarby would also be top of the Allsvenskan in 2026 on expected points, with 56.5 xPts from 61.7 xG created and 29.1 conceded across 28 matches. Sirius and Djurgården are next on 49.5.
Hammarby have created the most xG in the Allsvenskan in 2026, 61.7 from 28 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Sirius are next on 54.5.
Örgryte have created the least xG in the Allsvenskan in 2026, 30.2 from 28 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Degerfors are next on 30.7.
Halmstad have conceded the most xG in the Allsvenskan in 2026, 60.0 from 28 matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Örgryte are next on 58.6.
Hammarby have conceded the least xG in the Allsvenskan in 2026, 29.1 from 28 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Sirius are next on 31.5.
Allsvenskan teams have averaged 1.52 xG a game in 2026, from the 221 matches played, and have scored 1.42 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.51 xG a game in 2025.
Allsvenskan teams create more xG at home in 2026, 1.64 a game against 1.39 away, a home advantage of +0.25, against +0.24 in 2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby | 28 | 60 | 61.7 | -1.7 | 23 | 29.1 | -6.1 | +37 | 32.6 | +4.4 | 58 | 56.5 | +1.5 |
| 2 | Sirius | 28 | 58 | 56.0 | +2.0 | 35 | 32.3 | +2.7 | +23 | 23.6 | -0.6 | 58 | 51.4 | +6.6 |
| 3 | Djurgården | 28 | 56 | 52.8 | +3.2 | 27 | 32.7 | -5.7 | +29 | 20.1 | +8.9 | 52 | 49.5 | +2.5 |
| 4 | Häcken | 28 | 50 | 51.7 | -1.7 | 33 | 35.9 | -2.9 | +17 | 15.8 | +1.2 | 49 | 48.4 | +0.6 |
| 5 | GAIS | 28 | 36 | 47.4 | -11.4 | 28 | 36.9 | -8.9 | +8 | 10.6 | -2.6 | 40 | 44.8 | -4.8 |
| 6 | Elfsborg | 28 | 42 | 42.1 | -0.1 | 31 | 35.5 | -4.5 | +11 | 6.6 | +4.4 | 46 | 42.4 | +3.6 |
| 7 | IFK Göteborg | 28 | 36 | 44.3 | -8.3 | 46 | 40.8 | +5.2 | -10 | 3.5 | -13.5 | 39 | 40.8 | -1.8 |
| 8 | Kalmar | 28 | 24 | 38.3 | -14.3 | 42 | 37.6 | +4.4 | -18 | 0.7 | -18.7 | 26 | 40.6 | -14.6 |
| 9 | Malmö FF | 28 | 42 | 39.0 | +3.0 | 36 | 41.4 | -5.4 | +6 | -2.4 | +8.4 | 41 | 37.0 | +4.0 |
| 10 | AIK | 28 | 46 | 45.1 | +0.9 | 49 | 51.5 | -2.5 | -3 | -6.4 | +3.4 | 41 | 35.5 | +5.5 |
| 11 | Brommapojkarna | 28 | 39 | 36.9 | +2.1 | 44 | 43.2 | +0.8 | -5 | -6.2 | +1.2 | 35 | 35.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | Västerås SK | 28 | 40 | 37.0 | +3.0 | 38 | 46.3 | -8.3 | +2 | -9.3 | +11.3 | 45 | 33.6 | +11.4 |
| 13 | Mjällby | 28 | 30 | 35.0 | -5.0 | 43 | 47.1 | -4.1 | -13 | -12.2 | -0.8 | 28 | 31.4 | -3.4 |
| 14 | Degerfors | 28 | 23 | 30.7 | -7.7 | 48 | 50.0 | -2.0 | -25 | -19.2 | -5.8 | 20 | 27.9 | -7.9 |
| 15 | Örgryte | 28 | 33 | 30.2 | +2.8 | 60 | 59.2 | +0.8 | -27 | -29.0 | +2.0 | 20 | 24.2 | -4.2 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 28 | 20 | 31.1 | -11.1 | 52 | 60.0 | -8.0 | -32 | -28.9 | -3.1 | 20 | 23.3 | -3.3 |