Värnamo have the biggest shortfall in the Allsvenskan: 16 points from chances worth 27.5 xPts, a gap of 11.5. At the other end, Mjällby have taken 75 points from an xPts figure of 49.8, 25.2 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby | 15 | 34 | 30.1 | +3.9 | 10 | 12.6 | -2.6 | +24 | 17.5 | +6.5 | 37 | 31.2 | +5.8 |
| 2 | GAIS | 15 | 22 | 30.4 | -8.4 | 14 | 16.8 | -2.8 | +8 | 13.6 | -5.6 | 28 | 27.9 | +0.1 |
| 3 | Malmö FF | 15 | 23 | 29.5 | -6.5 | 16 | 17.7 | -1.7 | +7 | 11.8 | -4.8 | 25 | 27.8 | -2.8 |
| 4 | Djurgården | 15 | 30 | 29.5 | +0.5 | 16 | 18.4 | -2.4 | +14 | 11.0 | +3.0 | 25 | 26.9 | -1.9 |
| 5 | Mjällby | 15 | 25 | 25.9 | -0.9 | 8 | 17.3 | -9.3 | +17 | 8.5 | +8.5 | 37 | 26.1 | +10.9 |
| 6 | Sirius | 15 | 28 | 30.2 | -2.2 | 18 | 20.2 | -2.2 | +10 | 10.0 | +0.0 | 23 | 25.7 | -2.7 |
| 7 | Häcken | 15 | 23 | 26.4 | -3.4 | 29 | 20.2 | +8.8 | -6 | 6.3 | -12.3 | 16 | 24.5 | -8.5 |
| 8 | AIK | 15 | 23 | 22.1 | +0.9 | 14 | 17.9 | -3.9 | +9 | 4.2 | +4.8 | 27 | 24.4 | +2.6 |
| 9 | Elfsborg | 15 | 33 | 26.5 | +6.5 | 27 | 22.7 | +4.3 | +6 | 3.8 | +2.2 | 24 | 23.3 | +0.7 |
| 10 | IFK Göteborg | 15 | 19 | 21.5 | -2.5 | 16 | 20.4 | -4.4 | +3 | 1.1 | +1.9 | 22 | 21.3 | +0.7 |
| 11 | Degerfors | 15 | 7 | 20.7 | -13.7 | 22 | 20.3 | +1.7 | -15 | 0.4 | -15.4 | 8 | 21.0 | -13.0 |
| 12 | Öster | 15 | 16 | 22.6 | -6.6 | 24 | 25.8 | -1.8 | -8 | -3.2 | -4.8 | 12 | 18.9 | -6.9 |
| 13 | Brommapojkarna | 15 | 21 | 19.7 | +1.3 | 30 | 23.1 | +6.9 | -9 | -3.3 | -5.7 | 12 | 18.9 | -6.9 |
| 14 | Norrköping | 15 | 20 | 20.5 | -0.5 | 28 | 23.9 | +4.1 | -8 | -3.4 | -4.6 | 16 | 18.6 | -2.6 |
| 15 | Halmstad | 15 | 13 | 18.2 | -5.2 | 26 | 24.9 | +1.1 | -13 | -6.7 | -6.3 | 18 | 18.2 | -0.2 |
| 16 | Värnamo | 15 | 17 | 16.9 | +0.1 | 31 | 32.0 | -1.0 | -14 | -15.0 | +1.0 | 11 | 13.8 | -2.8 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mjällby | 15 | 32 | 26.1 | +5.9 | 10 | 19.8 | -9.8 | +22 | 6.4 | +15.6 | 38 | 23.7 | +14.3 |
| 2 | GAIS | 15 | 23 | 21.0 | +2.0 | 16 | 19.0 | -3.0 | +7 | 2.0 | +5.0 | 24 | 22.3 | +1.7 |
| 3 | Hammarby | 15 | 26 | 22.7 | +3.3 | 19 | 20.8 | -1.8 | +7 | 1.9 | +5.1 | 25 | 22.2 | +2.8 |
| 4 | Malmö FF | 15 | 23 | 23.8 | -0.8 | 17 | 21.8 | -4.8 | +6 | 2.0 | +4.0 | 24 | 22.1 | +1.9 |
| 5 | Sirius | 15 | 25 | 25.1 | -0.1 | 33 | 24.4 | +8.6 | -8 | 0.7 | -8.7 | 16 | 21.6 | -5.6 |
| 6 | AIK | 15 | 17 | 18.5 | -1.5 | 19 | 16.9 | +2.1 | -2 | 1.6 | -3.6 | 21 | 21.3 | -0.3 |
| 7 | Häcken | 15 | 19 | 25.3 | -6.3 | 21 | 25.3 | -4.3 | -2 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 19 | 20.2 | -1.2 |
| 8 | Djurgården | 15 | 22 | 19.2 | +2.8 | 16 | 20.2 | -4.2 | +6 | -1.1 | +7.1 | 24 | 19.8 | +4.2 |
| 9 | Brommapojkarna | 15 | 19 | 20.2 | -1.2 | 17 | 23.7 | -6.7 | +2 | -3.5 | +5.5 | 19 | 18.4 | +0.6 |
| 10 | IFK Göteborg | 15 | 22 | 22.8 | -0.8 | 17 | 27.2 | -10.2 | +5 | -4.4 | +9.4 | 29 | 18.2 | +10.8 |
| 11 | Elfsborg | 15 | 12 | 22.3 | -10.3 | 24 | 26.4 | -2.4 | -12 | -4.1 | -7.9 | 16 | 17.8 | -1.8 |
| 12 | Degerfors | 15 | 26 | 20.4 | +5.6 | 30 | 24.5 | +5.5 | -4 | -4.2 | +0.2 | 22 | 17.3 | +4.7 |
| 13 | Halmstad | 15 | 11 | 17.2 | -6.2 | 24 | 28.2 | -4.2 | -13 | -11.0 | -2.0 | 17 | 14.4 | +2.6 |
| 14 | Värnamo | 15 | 19 | 18.4 | +0.6 | 38 | 32.8 | +5.2 | -19 | -14.4 | -4.6 | 5 | 13.7 | -8.7 |
| 15 | Öster | 15 | 13 | 15.6 | -2.6 | 24 | 29.0 | -5.0 | -11 | -13.4 | +2.4 | 14 | 12.7 | +1.3 |
| 16 | Norrköping | 15 | 20 | 15.7 | +4.3 | 29 | 30.4 | -1.4 | -9 | -14.8 | +5.8 | 13 | 12.3 | +0.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mjällby | 5 | 12 | 13.5 | -1.5 | 1 | 4.6 | -3.6 | +11 | 8.9 | +2.1 | 15 | 11.7 | +3.3 |
| 2 | Sirius | 5 | 15 | 11.1 | +3.9 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | +11 | 5.7 | +5.3 | 13 | 9.9 | +3.1 |
| 3 | Hammarby | 5 | 11 | 8.7 | +2.3 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | +7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | 13 | 9.7 | +3.3 |
| 4 | GAIS | 5 | 9 | 9.8 | -0.8 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | +3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 10 | 9.2 | +0.8 |
| 5 | Degerfors | 5 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | +2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 8.8 | -0.8 |
| 6 | Häcken | 5 | 7 | 10.5 | -3.5 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 | +1 | 2.4 | -1.4 | 6 | 8.2 | -2.2 |
| 7 | Djurgården | 5 | 12 | 10.0 | +2.0 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 | +5 | 2.4 | +2.6 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| 8 | Öster | 5 | 7 | 9.5 | -2.5 | 11 | 9.4 | +1.6 | -4 | 0.1 | -4.1 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 |
| 9 | IFK Göteborg | 5 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | 4 | 9.2 | -5.2 | +2 | -1.5 | +3.5 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 10 | Halmstad | 5 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | -3 | -1.3 | -1.7 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 |
| 11 | AIK | 5 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 | -1 | -1.3 | +0.3 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 12 | Malmö FF | 5 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 | -3 | -3.2 | +0.2 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 |
| 13 | Elfsborg | 5 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 13 | 9.1 | +3.9 | -8 | -2.8 | -5.2 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 |
| 14 | Brommapojkarna | 5 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 | -6 | -4.1 | -1.9 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 |
| 15 | Norrköping | 5 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 10 | 10.1 | -0.1 | -7 | -6.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 3.5 | -3.5 |
| 16 | Värnamo | 5 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | 17 | 15.7 | +1.3 | -10 | -10.8 | +0.8 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 |
Hammarby overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Allsvenskan in 2025, with 60 goals from chances worth 52.8 xG, a gap of 7.2. Mjällby were next on 5.0.
Halmstad underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Allsvenskan in 2025, with 24 goals from chances worth 35.3 xG, a shortfall of 11.3. Häcken were next on 9.8.
Mjällby were the luckiest side in the Allsvenskan in 2025, with 75 points from performances worth 49.8 xPts, 25.2 more than their chances deserved. IFK Göteborg were next on 11.5.
Värnamo were the unluckiest side in the Allsvenskan in 2025, with 16 points from performances worth 27.5 xPts, 11.5 short of what they deserved. Häcken were next on 9.7.
Hammarby would be top of the Allsvenskan in 2025 on expected points, with 53.4 xPts from 52.8 xG created and 33.4 conceded across 30 matches. GAIS were next on 50.1.
Sirius created the most xG in the Allsvenskan in 2025, 55.2 from 30 matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Malmö FF were next on 53.3.
Halmstad and Värnamo shared the least xG in the Allsvenskan in 2025, both on 35.3 from 30 matches, 1.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Norrköping were next on 36.2.
Värnamo conceded the most xG in the Allsvenskan in 2025, 64.7 from 30 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Öster were next on 54.8.
Hammarby conceded the least xG in the Allsvenskan in 2025, 33.4 from 30 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. AIK were next on 34.8.
Allsvenskan teams averaged 1.51 xG a game in 2025, from the 240 matches played, and scored 1.42 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.37 xG a game in 2024.
Allsvenskan teams created more xG at home in 2025, 1.63 a game against 1.39 away, a home advantage of +0.24, against +0.20 in 2024.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby | 30 | 60 | 52.8 | +7.2 | 29 | 33.4 | -4.4 | +31 | 19.4 | +11.6 | 62 | 53.4 | +8.6 |
| 2 | GAIS | 30 | 45 | 51.3 | -6.3 | 30 | 35.8 | -5.8 | +15 | 15.5 | -0.5 | 52 | 50.1 | +1.9 |
| 3 | Mjällby | 30 | 57 | 52.0 | +5.0 | 18 | 37.1 | -19.1 | +39 | 14.9 | +24.1 | 75 | 49.8 | +25.2 |
| 4 | Malmö FF | 30 | 46 | 53.3 | -7.3 | 33 | 39.6 | -6.6 | +13 | 13.8 | -0.8 | 49 | 49.8 | -0.8 |
| 5 | Sirius | 30 | 53 | 55.2 | -2.2 | 51 | 44.5 | +6.5 | +2 | 10.7 | -8.7 | 39 | 47.3 | -8.3 |
| 6 | Djurgården | 30 | 52 | 48.6 | +3.4 | 32 | 38.7 | -6.7 | +20 | 9.9 | +10.1 | 49 | 46.7 | +2.3 |
| 7 | AIK | 30 | 40 | 40.6 | -0.6 | 33 | 34.8 | -1.8 | +7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | 48 | 45.7 | +2.3 |
| 8 | Häcken | 30 | 42 | 51.8 | -9.8 | 50 | 45.5 | +4.5 | -8 | 6.3 | -14.3 | 35 | 44.7 | -9.7 |
| 9 | Elfsborg | 30 | 45 | 48.8 | -3.8 | 51 | 49.2 | +1.8 | -6 | -0.4 | -5.6 | 40 | 41.1 | -1.1 |
| 10 | IFK Göteborg | 30 | 41 | 44.3 | -3.3 | 33 | 47.6 | -14.6 | +8 | -3.3 | +11.3 | 51 | 39.5 | +11.5 |
| 11 | Degerfors | 30 | 33 | 41.0 | -8.0 | 52 | 44.8 | +7.2 | -19 | -3.8 | -15.2 | 30 | 38.3 | -8.3 |
| 12 | Brommapojkarna | 30 | 40 | 39.9 | +0.1 | 47 | 46.8 | +0.2 | -7 | -6.9 | -0.1 | 31 | 37.2 | -6.2 |
| 13 | Halmstad | 30 | 24 | 35.3 | -11.3 | 50 | 53.1 | -3.1 | -26 | -17.8 | -8.2 | 35 | 32.6 | +2.4 |
| 14 | Öster | 30 | 29 | 38.2 | -9.2 | 48 | 54.8 | -6.8 | -19 | -16.6 | -2.4 | 26 | 31.6 | -5.6 |
| 15 | Norrköping | 30 | 40 | 36.2 | +3.8 | 57 | 54.4 | +2.6 | -17 | -18.2 | +1.2 | 29 | 30.9 | -1.9 |
| 16 | Värnamo | 30 | 36 | 35.3 | +0.7 | 69 | 64.7 | +4.3 | -33 | -29.4 | -3.6 | 16 | 27.5 | -11.5 |