Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications xG Table 2025

Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.

Updated 19 November 2024, after the last game

How these xG numbers are calculated

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications 2025 xG table, Home

#	Team	Played	Goals	xG	Goals minus xG	Goals against	xGA	Goals against minus xGA	Goal difference	xGD	Goal difference minus xGD	Points	xPts	Points minus xPts
1	Algeria	3	12	11.0	+1.0	2	2.2	-0.2	+10	8.8	+1.2	9	8.0	+1.0
2	Côte d'Ivoire	3	10	9.1	+0.9	1	1.1	-0.1	+9	8.0	+1.0	9	8.0	+1.0
3	South Africa	3	10	8.1	+1.9	2	1.4	+0.6	+8	6.7	+1.3	7	7.7	-0.7
4	Angola	3	5	6.4	-1.4	2	1.5	+0.5	+3	4.9	-1.9	7	7.4	-0.4
5	Mali	3	8	6.2	+1.8	1	0.5	+0.5	+7	5.7	+1.3	7	7.0	+0.0
6	Nigeria	3	5	4.1	+0.9	2	0.8	+1.2	+3	3.4	-0.4	6	6.8	-0.8
7	Senegal	3	7	6.6	+0.4	1	1.3	-0.3	+6	5.3	+0.7	7	6.6	+0.4
8	Morocco	3	16	10.2	+5.8	1	5.8	-4.8	+15	4.4	+10.6	9	6.4	+2.6
9	Guinea	3	6	6.4	-0.4	3	3.0	+0.0	+3	3.4	-0.4	6	6.4	-0.4
10	Togo	3	4	5.8	-1.8	2	2.5	-0.5	+2	3.3	-1.3	4	6.4	-2.4
11	Gambia	3	3	7.4	-4.4	4	3.0	+1.0	-1	4.3	-5.3	3	6.3	-3.3
12	Burkina Faso	3	7	6.9	+0.1	3	3.3	-0.3	+4	3.6	+0.4	6	6.2	-0.2
13	Egypt	3	6	5.0	+1.0	1	2.1	-1.1	+5	3.0	+2.0	7	6.1	+0.9
14	Cameroon	3	7	4.6	+2.4	2	1.8	+0.2	+5	2.9	+2.1	9	6.1	+2.9
15	Benin	3	6	3.9	+2.1	2	1.8	+0.2	+4	2.1	+1.9	7	5.6	+1.4
16	Sudan	3	3	3.8	-0.8	0	1.5	-1.5	+3	2.4	+0.6	7	5.5	+1.5
17	Ghana	3	1	5.4	-4.4	3	2.9	+0.1	-2	2.5	-4.5	1	5.3	-4.3
18	Cape Verde Islands	3	3	4.0	-1.0	2	2.5	-0.5	+1	1.5	-0.5	4	5.3	-1.3
19	Equatorial Guinea	3	3	3.3	-0.3	2	1.8	+0.2	+1	1.5	-0.5	5	5.2	-0.2
20	Rwanda	3	2	4.7	-2.7	2	3.5	-1.5	+0	1.1	-1.1	4	5.1	-1.1
21	Uganda	3	3	2.3	+0.7	2	0.9	+1.1	+1	1.4	-0.4	6	5.0	+1.0
22	Congo DR	3	3	3.3	-0.3	2	2.0	+0.0	+1	1.3	-0.3	6	5.0	+1.0
23	Niger	3	5	3.3	+1.7	2	2.1	-0.1	+3	1.2	+1.8	4	4.9	-0.9
24	Tanzania	3	1	2.6	-1.6	2	1.5	+0.5	-1	1.1	-2.1	4	4.9	-0.9
25	Gabon	3	3	4.2	-1.2	5	3.7	+1.3	-2	0.5	-2.5	4	4.9	-0.9
26	Mauritania	3	2	2.1	-0.1	1	1.1	-0.1	+1	1.0	+0.0	6	4.8	+1.2
27	Mozambique	3	3	3.0	+0.0	3	2.0	+1.0	+0	1.0	-1.0	4	4.8	-0.8
28	Tunisia	3	1	3.2	-2.2	2	2.3	-0.3	-1	0.9	-1.9	3	4.8	-1.8
29	Sierra Leone	3	1	2.2	-1.2	2	1.5	+0.5	-1	0.7	-1.7	4	4.6	-0.6
30	Zambia	2	3	2.5	+0.5	2	0.7	+1.3	+1	1.8	-0.8	4	4.1	-0.1
31	Namibia	3	1	3.0	-2.0	3	2.9	+0.1	-2	0.1	-2.1	1	4.1	-3.1
32	Guinea-Bissau	3	2	3.6	-1.6	2	3.2	-1.2	+0	0.3	-0.3	4	4.0	+0.0
33	Kenya	3	0	1.6	-1.6	1	1.8	-0.8	-1	-0.2	-0.8	2	3.7	-1.7
34	Zimbabwe	3	4	3.0	+1.0	2	3.5	-1.5	+2	-0.5	+2.5	5	3.7	+1.3
35	Comoros	3	3	3.1	-0.1	2	3.6	-1.6	+1	-0.5	+1.5	5	3.5	+1.5
36	Ethiopia	3	0	2.9	-2.9	7	3.8	+3.2	-7	-0.9	-6.1	0	3.4	-3.4
37	Malawi	3	5	2.6	+2.4	4	3.9	+0.1	+1	-1.4	+2.4	3	3.2	-0.2
38	Liberia	3	2	3.5	-1.5	5	5.0	+0.0	-3	-1.5	-1.5	3	3.2	-0.2
39	South Sudan	3	6	3.9	+2.1	7	6.4	+0.6	-1	-2.5	+1.5	3	2.9	+0.1
40	Madagascar	3	4	2.2	+1.8	5	3.9	+1.1	-1	-1.7	+0.7	2	2.8	-0.8
41	Libya	2	1	1.4	-0.4	1	1.4	-0.4	+0	0.1	-0.1	2	2.7	-0.7
42	Chad	3	1	2.8	-1.8	4	5.3	-1.3	-3	-2.5	-0.5	1	2.7	-1.7
43	Burundi	3	0	1.8	-1.8	3	5.5	-2.5	-3	-3.7	+0.7	1	2.6	-1.6
44	Central African Republic	3	3	2.9	+0.1	6	6.5	-0.5	-3	-3.6	+0.6	3	2.5	+0.5
45	Eswatini	3	1	2.0	-1.0	5	4.6	+0.4	-4	-2.6	-1.4	1	2.1	-1.1
46	Botswana	3	2	2.0	+0.0	5	5.0	+0.0	-3	-3.0	+0.0	4	2.1	+1.9
47	Lesotho	3	1	1.7	-0.7	3	6.2	-3.2	-2	-4.5	+2.5	3	1.3	+1.7
48	Congo	1	1	1.0	+0.0	1	1.5	-0.5	+0	-0.4	+0.4	1	1.1	-0.1

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications 2025 xG table, Away

#	Team	Played	Goals	xG	Goals minus xG	Goals against	xGA	Goals against minus xGA	Goal difference	xGD	Goal difference minus xGD	Points	xPts	Points minus xPts
1	Morocco	3	10	7.1	+2.9	1	1.3	-0.3	+9	5.8	+3.2	9	7.6	+1.4
2	Gabon	3	4	9.4	-5.4	4	5.4	-1.4	+0	4.1	-4.1	6	6.4	-0.4
3	Senegal	3	3	6.1	-3.1	0	2.2	-2.2	+3	3.9	-0.9	9	6.3	+2.7
4	Mali	3	2	3.5	-1.5	0	1.2	-1.2	+2	2.3	-0.3	7	5.8	+1.2
5	Gambia	3	3	4.1	-1.1	2	2.1	-0.1	+1	2.0	-1.0	5	5.6	-0.6
6	Tunisia	3	6	3.9	+2.1	4	2.1	+1.9	+2	1.8	+0.2	7	5.5	+1.5
7	South Africa	3	6	5.3	+0.7	3	2.8	+0.2	+3	2.5	+0.5	7	5.3	+1.7
8	Burkina Faso	3	3	3.7	-0.7	4	2.1	+1.9	-1	1.6	-2.6	4	4.9	-0.9
9	Angola	3	2	2.4	-0.4	0	1.5	-1.5	+2	1.0	+1.0	7	4.7	+2.3
10	Egypt	3	6	3.9	+2.1	1	2.4	-1.4	+5	1.5	+3.5	7	4.6	+2.4
11	Cameroon	3	1	3.1	-2.1	0	2.4	-2.4	+1	0.7	+0.3	5	4.6	+0.4
12	Algeria	3	4	3.9	+0.1	0	3.3	-3.3	+4	0.6	+3.4	7	4.2	+2.8
13	Zimbabwe	3	2	2.9	-0.9	2	2.8	-0.8	+0	0.1	-0.1	4	4.2	-0.2
14	Guinea-Bissau	3	2	3.4	-1.4	4	3.6	+0.4	-2	-0.2	-1.8	1	3.9	-2.9
15	Zambia	3	3	2.7	+0.3	2	3.0	-1.0	+1	-0.4	+1.4	6	3.9	+2.1
16	Kenya	3	4	2.8	+1.2	6	3.5	+2.5	-2	-0.7	-1.3	4	3.8	+0.2
17	Mauritania	3	1	3.1	-2.1	5	3.5	+1.5	-4	-0.4	-3.6	1	3.7	-2.7
18	Tanzania	3	4	2.6	+1.4	2	3.3	-1.3	+2	-0.6	+2.6	6	3.5	+2.5
19	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	2.2	-2.2	5	3.2	+1.8	-5	-1.0	-4.0	0	3.5	-3.5
20	Mozambique	3	6	2.6	+3.4	2	3.7	-1.7	+4	-1.2	+5.2	7	3.5	+3.5
21	Nigeria	2	1	3.2	-2.2	1	1.8	-0.8	+0	1.4	-1.4	2	3.4	-1.4
22	Congo DR	3	4	1.9	+2.1	1	3.0	-2.0	+3	-1.1	+4.1	6	3.3	+2.7
23	Côte d'Ivoire	2	2	2.4	-0.4	1	1.0	+0.0	+1	1.5	-0.5	3	3.2	-0.2
24	Guinea	3	3	2.9	+0.1	2	4.1	-2.1	+1	-1.3	+2.3	3	3.1	-0.1
25	Central African Republic	3	0	4.0	-4.0	8	6.3	+1.7	-8	-2.3	-5.7	0	3.0	-3.0
26	Rwanda	3	3	1.6	+1.4	5	3.3	+1.7	-2	-1.6	-0.4	4	2.8	+1.2
27	Ethiopia	3	3	2.8	+0.2	5	4.8	+0.2	-2	-1.9	-0.1	4	2.7	+1.3
28	Togo	3	3	4.1	-1.1	8	7.0	+1.0	-5	-3.0	-2.0	1	2.7	-1.7
29	Uganda	2	4	1.9	+2.1	3	2.9	+0.1	+1	-1.0	+2.0	4	2.5	+1.5
30	Comoros	3	4	2.9	+1.1	2	6.0	-4.0	+2	-3.2	+5.2	7	2.5	+4.5
31	Congo	3	2	2.2	-0.2	10	4.5	+5.5	-8	-2.4	-5.6	0	2.4	-2.4
32	Burundi	3	4	2.6	+1.4	8	5.9	+2.1	-4	-3.3	-0.7	3	2.3	+0.7
33	Benin	3	1	1.5	-0.5	5	3.8	+1.2	-4	-2.3	-1.7	1	2.2	-1.2
34	Botswana	3	2	1.5	+0.5	2	4.0	-2.0	+0	-2.5	+2.5	4	2.2	+1.8
35	Sierra Leone	3	4	2.8	+1.2	8	6.4	+1.6	-4	-3.7	-0.3	1	2.2	-1.2
36	Namibia	3	1	1.1	-0.1	4	3.4	+0.6	-3	-2.3	-0.7	1	2.1	-1.1
37	Niger	3	2	2.0	+0.0	4	5.1	-1.1	-2	-3.1	+1.1	3	2.0	+1.0
38	Ghana	3	2	1.8	+0.2	4	5.3	-1.3	-2	-3.5	+1.5	2	2.0	+0.0
39	Equatorial Guinea	3	2	2.4	-0.4	6	6.7	-0.7	-4	-4.3	+0.3	3	2.0	+1.0
40	Madagascar	3	0	2.0	-2.0	3	5.6	-2.6	-3	-3.6	+0.6	0	1.9	-1.9
41	Eswatini	3	1	0.9	+0.1	8	6.3	+1.7	-7	-5.4	-1.6	1	1.8	-0.8
42	Lesotho	3	1	1.6	-0.6	10	6.0	+4.0	-9	-4.4	-4.6	1	1.7	-0.7
43	Liberia	3	2	1.3	+0.7	7	6.6	+0.4	-5	-5.3	+0.3	1	1.4	-0.4
44	Libya	3	2	1.1	+0.9	3	5.2	-2.2	-1	-4.1	+3.1	3	1.3	+1.7
45	Chad	3	0	0.7	-0.7	4	6.2	-2.2	-4	-5.5	+1.5	2	1.3	+0.7
46	Malawi	3	1	1.7	-0.7	7	7.6	-0.6	-6	-6.0	+0.0	1	1.3	-0.3
47	Sudan	3	1	1.7	-0.7	6	7.0	-1.0	-5	-5.3	+0.3	1	1.2	-0.2
48	South Sudan	2	0	0.8	-0.8	4	5.0	-1.0	-4	-4.2	+0.2	0	0.6	-0.6

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications xG Table Questions

Which Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications team is overperforming their xG the most in 2025?

Morocco overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2025, with 26 goals from chances worth 17.3 xG, a gap of 8.7. Mozambique were next on 3.4.

Which Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications team is underperforming their xG the most in 2025?

Gabon underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2025, with 7 goals from chances worth 13.6 xG, a shortfall of 6.6. The Gambia were next on 5.4.

Which Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications team has been the luckiest on expected points in 2025?

The Comoros were the luckiest side in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2025, with 12 points from performances worth 6.1 xPts, 5.9 more than their chances deserved. Morocco were next on 4.0.

Which Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications team has been the unluckiest on expected points in 2025?

The Cape Verde Islands were the unluckiest side in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2025, with 4 points from performances worth 8.7 xPts, 4.7 short of what they deserved. Ghana were next on 4.3.

Who would be top of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications on xG in 2025?

Morocco were also top of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2025 on expected points, with 14.0 xPts from 17.3 xG created and 7.1 conceded across six matches. South Africa were next on 13.0.

Which Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications team has the most xG in 2025?

Morocco created the most xG in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2025, 17.3 from six matches, 2.9 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Algeria were next on 14.9.

Which Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications team has the least xG in 2025?

Libya created the least xG in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2025, 2.6 from five matches, 0.5 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Eswatini were next on 2.9.

Which Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications team has conceded the most xG in 2025?

The Central African Republic conceded the most xG in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2025, 12.7 from six matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Lesotho were next on 12.2.

Which Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications team has conceded the least xG in 2025?

Mali conceded the least xG in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2025, 1.7 from six matches, 0.3 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Côte d'Ivoire were next on 2.1.

What is the average xG per game in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2025?

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications teams averaged 1.19 xG a game in 2025, from the 140 matches played, and scored 1.12 goals a game from it. That is down from 1.25 xG a game in 2023.

Did Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications teams create more xG at home or away in 2025?

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications teams created more xG at home in 2025, 1.40 a game against 0.97 away, a home advantage of +0.43, against +0.30 in 2023.

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Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications 2025 xG table

#	Team	Played	Goals	xG	Goals minus xG	Goals against	xGA	Goals against minus xGA	Goal difference	xGD	Goal difference minus xGD	Points	xPts	Points minus xPts
1	Morocco	6	26	17.3	+8.7	2	7.1	-5.1	+24	10.2	+13.8	18	14.0	+4.0
2	South Africa	6	16	13.4	+2.6	5	4.2	+0.8	+11	9.1	+1.9	14	13.0	+1.0
3	Senegal	6	10	12.6	-2.6	1	3.5	-2.5	+9	9.2	-0.2	16	12.9	+3.1
4	Mali	6	10	9.7	+0.3	1	1.7	-0.7	+9	8.0	+1.0	14	12.8	+1.2
5	Algeria	6	16	14.9	+1.1	2	5.5	-3.5	+14	9.4	+4.6	16	12.2	+3.8
6	Angola	6	7	8.8	-1.8	2	2.9	-0.9	+5	5.9	-0.9	14	12.1	+1.9
7	Gambia	6	6	11.4	-5.4	6	5.1	+0.9	+0	6.3	-6.3	8	11.8	-3.8
8	Côte d'Ivoire	5	12	11.6	+0.4	2	2.1	-0.1	+10	9.5	+0.5	12	11.2	+0.8
9	Burkina Faso	6	10	10.6	-0.6	7	5.4	+1.6	+3	5.2	-2.2	10	11.2	-1.2
10	Gabon	6	7	13.6	-6.6	9	9.1	-0.1	-2	4.6	-6.6	10	11.2	-1.2
11	Egypt	6	12	8.9	+3.1	2	4.4	-2.4	+10	4.4	+5.6	14	10.7	+3.3
12	Cameroon	6	8	7.7	+0.3	2	4.1	-2.1	+6	3.6	+2.4	14	10.7	+3.3
13	Tunisia	6	7	7.1	-0.1	6	4.4	+1.6	+1	2.7	-1.7	10	10.3	-0.3
14	Nigeria	5	6	7.3	-1.3	3	2.5	+0.5	+3	4.8	-1.8	8	10.2	-2.2
15	Guinea	6	9	9.3	-0.3	5	7.2	-2.2	+4	2.1	+1.9	9	9.5	-0.5
16	Togo	6	7	9.8	-2.8	10	9.5	+0.5	-3	0.3	-3.3	5	9.1	-4.1
17	Cape Verde Islands	6	3	6.2	-3.2	7	5.7	+1.3	-4	0.5	-4.5	4	8.7	-4.7
18	Mauritania	6	3	5.2	-2.2	6	4.6	+1.4	-3	0.5	-3.5	7	8.5	-1.5
19	Tanzania	6	5	5.2	-0.2	4	4.7	-0.7	+1	0.5	+0.5	10	8.4	+1.6
20	Congo DR	6	7	5.2	+1.8	3	5.0	-2.0	+4	0.2	+3.8	12	8.3	+3.7
21	Mozambique	6	9	5.6	+3.4	5	5.8	-0.8	+4	-0.2	+4.2	11	8.2	+2.8
22	Zambia	5	6	5.2	+0.8	4	3.7	+0.3	+2	1.5	+0.5	10	8.0	+2.0
23	Guinea-Bissau	6	4	7.0	-3.0	6	6.8	-0.8	-2	0.1	-2.1	5	7.9	-2.9
24	Benin	6	7	5.4	+1.6	7	5.6	+1.4	+0	-0.2	+0.2	8	7.9	+0.1
25	Zimbabwe	6	6	5.9	+0.1	4	6.3	-2.3	+2	-0.4	+2.4	9	7.9	+1.1
26	Rwanda	6	5	6.3	-1.3	7	6.8	+0.2	-2	-0.5	-1.5	8	7.9	+0.1
27	Uganda	5	7	4.2	+2.8	5	3.8	+1.2	+2	0.4	+1.6	10	7.5	+2.5
28	Kenya	6	4	4.5	-0.5	7	5.4	+1.6	-3	-0.9	-2.1	6	7.5	-1.5
29	Ghana	6	3	7.3	-4.3	7	8.3	-1.3	-4	-1.0	-3.0	3	7.3	-4.3
30	Equatorial Guinea	6	5	5.7	-0.7	8	8.5	-0.5	-3	-2.8	-0.2	8	7.3	+0.7
31	Niger	6	7	5.3	+1.7	6	7.2	-1.2	+1	-2.0	+3.0	7	6.9	+0.1
32	Sierra Leone	6	5	5.0	+0.0	10	7.9	+2.1	-5	-2.9	-2.1	5	6.8	-1.8
33	Sudan	6	4	5.5	-1.5	6	8.5	-2.5	-2	-2.9	+0.9	8	6.6	+1.4
34	Namibia	6	2	4.1	-2.1	7	6.3	+0.7	-5	-2.3	-2.7	2	6.2	-4.2
35	Ethiopia	6	3	5.7	-2.7	12	8.5	+3.5	-9	-2.8	-6.2	4	6.1	-2.1
36	Comoros	6	7	5.9	+1.1	4	9.6	-5.6	+3	-3.7	+6.7	12	6.1	+5.9
37	Central African Republic	6	3	6.9	-3.9	14	12.7	+1.3	-11	-5.9	-5.1	3	5.5	-2.5
38	Burundi	6	4	4.4	-0.4	11	11.4	-0.4	-7	-7.0	+0.0	4	4.9	-0.9
39	Madagascar	6	4	4.2	-0.2	8	9.5	-1.5	-4	-5.3	+1.3	2	4.7	-2.7
40	Liberia	6	4	4.8	-0.8	12	11.6	+0.4	-8	-6.9	-1.1	4	4.6	-0.6
41	Malawi	6	6	4.2	+1.8	11	11.6	-0.6	-5	-7.4	+2.4	4	4.5	-0.5
42	Botswana	6	4	3.5	+0.5	7	9.0	-2.0	-3	-5.5	+2.5	8	4.3	+3.7
43	Libya	5	3	2.6	+0.4	4	6.6	-2.6	-1	-4.0	+3.0	5	4.0	+1.0
44	Chad	6	1	3.5	-2.5	8	11.5	-3.5	-7	-8.0	+1.0	3	4.0	-1.0
45	Eswatini	6	2	2.9	-0.9	13	10.9	+2.1	-11	-8.0	-3.0	2	3.9	-1.9
46	South Sudan	5	6	4.7	+1.3	11	11.4	-0.4	-5	-6.7	+1.7	3	3.5	-0.5
47	Congo	4	3	3.2	-0.2	11	6.0	+5.0	-8	-2.8	-5.2	1	3.4	-2.4
48	Lesotho	6	2	3.3	-1.3	13	12.2	+0.8	-11	-8.9	-2.1	4	3.0	+1.0