Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 17 October 2023, after the last game
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tunisia | 3 | 10 | 6.3 | +3.7 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | +10 | 4.9 | +5.1 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 |
| 2 | Mali | 3 | 10 | 5.3 | +4.7 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | +10 | 3.5 | +6.5 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 |
| 3 | Algeria | 3 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | +3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |
| 4 | Ghana | 3 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | +5 | 3.6 | +1.4 | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 |
| 5 | Egypt | 3 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 | +4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 |
| 6 | Congo DR | 3 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | +3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 |
| 7 | Senegal | 3 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | +6 | 2.8 | +3.2 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 |
| 8 | Nigeria | 3 | 8 | 4.3 | +3.7 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | +6 | 2.3 | +3.7 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 |
| 9 | Gabon | 3 | 1 | 4.8 | -3.8 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 | -1 | 2.4 | -3.4 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 |
| 10 | Guinea | 3 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | +2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Togo | 3 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 | +1 | 2.1 | -1.1 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| 12 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 5 | 3.6 | +1.4 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9 | +5 | 1.7 | +3.3 | 9 | 5.5 | +3.5 |
| 13 | Benin | 3 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | -1 | 2.4 | -3.4 | 2 | 5.4 | -3.4 |
| 14 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | 0 | 2.8 | -2.8 | +3 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 |
| 15 | Mauritania | 3 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | +4 | 1.7 | +2.3 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 |
| 16 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | +1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 17 | Morocco | 2 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | +4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 |
| 18 | Zambia | 3 | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | +6 | 1.0 | +5.0 | 9 | 4.8 | +4.2 |
| 19 | Côte d'Ivoire | 3 | 7 | 3.8 | +3.2 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | +5 | 0.8 | +4.2 | 9 | 4.8 | +4.2 |
| 20 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | +4 | 0.7 | +3.3 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 |
| 21 | Libya | 3 | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | +0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 22 | Malawi | 3 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 7 | 3.2 | +3.8 | -3 | 0.5 | -3.5 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 23 | Botswana | 3 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | +0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 24 | Gambia | 3 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | +2 | 0.3 | +1.7 | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 |
| 25 | Eswatini | 3 | 1 | 4.9 | -3.9 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | -5 | 0.3 | -5.3 | 0 | 4.3 | -4.3 |
| 26 | Ethiopia | 3 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | +1 | 0.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 27 | Rwanda | 3 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | -3 | -0.2 | -2.8 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 |
| 28 | Uganda | 3 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | -2 | -0.3 | -1.7 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 |
| 29 | Tanzania | 3 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | -2 | -0.3 | -1.7 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 |
| 30 | Mozambique | 3 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | +0 | -0.6 | +0.6 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| 31 | Cameroon | 2 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | +3 | 1.2 | +1.8 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
| 32 | Congo | 3 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | -2 | -0.7 | -1.3 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 |
| 33 | Niger | 3 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | -3 | -0.6 | -2.4 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 |
| 34 | South Africa | 2 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 | +1 | 0.3 | +0.7 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 |
| 35 | South Sudan | 3 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 | -4 | -1.8 | -2.2 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 |
| 36 | Lesotho | 3 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | -3 | -1.9 | -1.1 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 |
| 37 | Sudan | 2 | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 | -2 | -0.1 | -1.9 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 38 | Sierra Leone | 2 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | 5 | 2.8 | +2.2 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 |
| 39 | Burundi | 2 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | +0 | -0.3 | +0.3 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 |
| 40 | Namibia | 2 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | +1 | -0.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 |
| 41 | Cape Verde Islands | 2 | 5 | 2.0 | +3.0 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | +4 | -0.6 | +4.6 | 6 | 2.3 | +3.7 |
| 42 | Liberia | 2 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 | 4 | 2.4 | +1.6 | -3 | -0.8 | -2.2 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| 43 | Madagascar | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 | +0 | -0.9 | +0.9 | 2 | 2.1 | -0.1 |
| 44 | Central African Republic | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | -1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 |
| 45 | São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | 13 | 6.6 | +6.4 | -13 | -4.6 | -8.4 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9 |
| 46 | Comoros | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | +0 | -0.1 | +0.1 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 14 | 7.5 | +6.5 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 | +12 | 5.1 | +6.9 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 2 | Senegal | 3 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | +2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 |
| 3 | Mali | 3 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | +3 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | 5 | 3.6 | +1.4 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | +4 | 1.0 | +3.0 | 9 | 4.8 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Zambia | 3 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | +0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 6 | Togo | 3 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | -1 | 0.8 | -1.8 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 |
| 7 | Ghana | 3 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | +0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 |
| 8 | Côte d'Ivoire | 2 | 0 | 3.4 | -3.4 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 | -3 | 2.0 | -5.0 | 1 | 4.1 | -3.1 |
| 9 | Sierra Leone | 3 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | +0 | -0.1 | +0.1 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 10 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | +0 | -0.4 | +0.4 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | Tunisia | 3 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 1 | 3.3 | -2.3 | +0 | -0.1 | +0.1 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| 12 | South Sudan | 3 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | -4 | -0.4 | -3.6 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 |
| 13 | Egypt | 3 | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | +3 | -0.2 | +3.2 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
| 14 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 5 | 3.3 | +1.7 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | +0 | -0.4 | +0.4 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| 15 | Cameroon | 2 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | +0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 |
| 16 | Guinea | 3 | 5 | 3.1 | +1.9 | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 | +0 | -0.4 | +0.4 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| 17 | Mauritania | 3 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | +1 | -0.6 | +1.6 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
| 18 | Morocco | 2 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | +1 | 1.0 | +0.0 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| 19 | Tanzania | 3 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 | +1 | -0.8 | +1.8 | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 |
| 20 | Uganda | 3 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | +1 | -1.0 | +2.0 | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 |
| 21 | Congo | 3 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 | -3 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| 22 | Comoros | 3 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | -2 | -1.4 | -0.6 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 |
| 23 | Gabon | 3 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | -1 | -1.4 | +0.4 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 |
| 24 | Benin | 3 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | -3 | -1.6 | -1.4 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 |
| 25 | Niger | 3 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | -2 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 1 | 3.1 | -2.1 |
| 26 | Guinea-Bissau | 2 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 | 0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | +2 | 0.4 | +1.6 | 6 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| 27 | Burundi | 2 | 1 | 3.4 | -2.4 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | -3 | 0.2 | -3.2 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 |
| 28 | Rwanda | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 6.0 | -3.0 | +0 | -2.5 | +2.5 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 |
| 29 | Gambia | 3 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | -2 | -2.0 | +0.0 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 30 | Malawi | 3 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | -3 | -2.0 | -1.0 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 |
| 31 | Libya | 3 | 0 | 2.6 | -2.6 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | -6 | -2.4 | -3.6 | 0 | 2.7 | -2.7 |
| 32 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 4 | 2.4 | +1.6 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.3 | -3 | -2.3 | -0.7 | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 |
| 33 | Cape Verde Islands | 3 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 | -2 | -2.4 | +0.4 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 34 | Sudan | 3 | 0 | 2.3 | -2.3 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 | -6 | -2.4 | -3.6 | 0 | 2.4 | -2.4 |
| 35 | Mozambique | 3 | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | -1 | -2.5 | +1.5 | 6 | 2.4 | +3.6 |
| 36 | Botswana | 3 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | -6 | -2.9 | -3.1 | 0 | 2.3 | -2.3 |
| 37 | Ethiopia | 3 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 | -4 | -3.5 | -0.5 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| 38 | Central African Republic | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | -2 | -1.1 | -0.9 | 0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 39 | Lesotho | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | -3 | -1.3 | -1.7 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 |
| 40 | Eswatini | 2 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 | +0 | -1.7 | +1.7 | 2 | 1.8 | +0.2 |
| 41 | Liberia | 2 | 2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | -3 | -1.7 | -1.3 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 |
| 42 | São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 3 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | 13 | 5.5 | +7.5 | -10 | -3.6 | -6.4 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 |
| 43 | Madagascar | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | -3 | -2.1 | -0.9 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 |
| 44 | South Africa | 2 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | +0 | -2.6 | +2.6 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
| 45 | Namibia | 2 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | -1 | -1.9 | +0.9 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 |
| 46 | Congo DR | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | +2 | -2.5 | +4.5 | 4 | 1.2 | +2.8 |
Nigeria overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2023, with 22 goals from chances worth 11.7 xG, a gap of 10.3. Mali were next on 4.9.
Gabon and Eswatini shared the biggest shortfall against their xG in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2023, both on 4.6, each scoring 3 goals from chances worth 7.6 xG. Libya were next on 4.5.
Equatorial Guinea were the luckiest side in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2023, with 13 points from performances worth 8.0 xPts, 5.0 more than their chances deserved. Egypt were next on 4.9.
Benin were the unluckiest side in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2023, with 3 points from performances worth 8.6 xPts, 5.6 short of what they deserved. Niger were next on 4.6.
Nigeria would be top of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2023 on expected points, with 12.6 xPts from 11.7 xG created and 4.3 conceded across six matches. Mali were next on 12.0.
Nigeria created the most xG in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2023, 11.7 from six matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Mali were next on 10.1.
Madagascar created the least xG in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2023, 3.5 from four matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Liberia were next on 3.7.
São Tomé and PrÃncipe conceded the most xG in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2023, 12.1 from six matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Rwanda were next on 9.8.
Morocco conceded the least xG in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications in 2023, 3.2 from four matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Cameroon were next on 4.2.
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications teams averaged 1.25 xG a game in 2023, from the 125 matches played, and scored 1.21 goals a game from it.
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications teams created more xG at home in 2023, 1.40 a game against 1.10 away, a home advantage of +0.30.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nigeria | 6 | 22 | 11.7 | +10.3 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | +18 | 7.4 | +10.6 | 15 | 12.6 | +2.4 |
| 2 | Mali | 6 | 15 | 10.1 | +4.9 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | +13 | 5.5 | +7.5 | 15 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
| 3 | Senegal | 6 | 12 | 10.0 | +2.0 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | +8 | 4.9 | +3.1 | 14 | 11.6 | +2.4 |
| 4 | Algeria | 6 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 | +7 | 4.3 | +2.7 | 16 | 11.3 | +4.7 |
| 5 | Tunisia | 6 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 | 1 | 4.7 | -3.7 | +10 | 4.8 | +5.2 | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9 |
| 6 | Ghana | 6 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | +5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 12 | 10.7 | +1.3 |
| 7 | Egypt | 6 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 | +7 | 3.2 | +3.8 | 15 | 10.1 | +4.9 |
| 8 | Togo | 6 | 8 | 9.7 | -1.7 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | +0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 |
| 9 | Zambia | 6 | 12 | 9.3 | +2.7 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | +6 | 1.9 | +4.1 | 13 | 9.5 | +3.5 |
| 10 | Guinea | 6 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | +2 | 1.8 | +0.2 | 10 | 9.2 | +0.8 |
| 11 | Burkina Faso | 6 | 8 | 8.1 | -0.1 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 | +3 | 1.6 | +1.4 | 11 | 9.2 | +1.8 |
| 12 | Angola | 6 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | Côte d'Ivoire | 5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 | +2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 |
| 14 | Mauritania | 6 | 10 | 7.6 | +2.4 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | +5 | 1.1 | +3.9 | 11 | 8.9 | +2.1 |
| 15 | Gabon | 6 | 3 | 7.6 | -4.6 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 | -2 | 1.0 | -3.0 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 |
| 16 | Benin | 6 | 6 | 8.6 | -2.6 | 10 | 7.7 | +2.3 | -4 | 0.8 | -4.8 | 3 | 8.6 | -5.6 |
| 17 | Morocco | 4 | 8 | 8.1 | -0.1 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | +5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 |
| 18 | Equatorial Guinea | 6 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | +2 | -0.6 | +2.6 | 13 | 8.0 | +5.0 |
| 19 | Guinea-Bissau | 5 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 | +6 | 1.1 | +4.9 | 12 | 7.6 | +4.4 |
| 20 | Congo DR | 5 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | +5 | 0.4 | +4.6 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 |
| 21 | Tanzania | 6 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 | -1 | -1.0 | +0.0 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| 22 | Cameroon | 4 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | +3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 |
| 23 | Malawi | 6 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | 10 | 7.3 | +2.7 | -6 | -1.5 | -4.5 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 |
| 24 | Uganda | 6 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | -1 | -1.3 | +0.3 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 |
| 25 | Libya | 6 | 2 | 6.5 | -4.5 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 | -6 | -1.8 | -4.2 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 |
| 26 | Gambia | 6 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 | +0 | -1.7 | +1.7 | 10 | 7.1 | +2.9 |
| 27 | Congo | 6 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | 10 | 7.0 | +3.0 | -5 | -1.7 | -3.3 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 28 | Sierra Leone | 5 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 |
| 29 | South Sudan | 6 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 13 | 8.6 | +4.4 | -8 | -2.2 | -5.8 | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 |
| 30 | Botswana | 6 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 | -6 | -2.4 | -3.6 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 |
| 31 | Rwanda | 6 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | 7 | 9.8 | -2.8 | -3 | -2.6 | -0.4 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 |
| 32 | Niger | 6 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | -5 | -2.0 | -3.0 | 2 | 6.6 | -4.6 |
| 33 | Eswatini | 5 | 3 | 7.6 | -4.6 | 8 | 8.9 | -0.9 | -5 | -1.4 | -3.6 | 2 | 6.1 | -4.1 |
| 34 | Mozambique | 6 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | 9 | 9.4 | -0.4 | -1 | -3.1 | +2.1 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 |
| 35 | Ethiopia | 6 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | -3 | -3.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 |
| 36 | Burundi | 4 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | -3 | -0.2 | -2.8 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 |
| 37 | Sudan | 5 | 1 | 4.5 | -3.5 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 | -8 | -2.5 | -5.5 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 |
| 38 | Cape Verde Islands | 5 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | +2 | -3.1 | +5.1 | 9 | 4.9 | +4.1 |
| 39 | Lesotho | 5 | 1 | 4.4 | -3.4 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 | -6 | -3.2 | -2.8 | 1 | 4.6 | -3.6 |
| 40 | Comoros | 4 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | -2 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 41 | South Africa | 4 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.3 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 | +1 | -2.4 | +3.4 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 |
| 42 | Central African Republic | 4 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | -3 | -2.0 | -1.0 | 1 | 4.0 | -3.0 |
| 43 | Namibia | 4 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | +0 | -2.3 | +2.3 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| 44 | Liberia | 4 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 | -6 | -2.5 | -3.5 | 1 | 3.8 | -2.8 |
| 45 | Madagascar | 4 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 | -3 | -2.9 | -0.1 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 |
| 46 | São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 6 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 26 | 12.1 | +13.9 | -23 | -8.2 | -14.8 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 |