Win, draw and score chances for Vélez Sarsfield v Belgrano, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Vélez Sarsfield win | 43.5% |
| Draw | 28.4% |
| Belgrano win | 28.2% |
| Vélez Sarsfield or draw (1X) | 71.8% |
| Belgrano or draw (X2) | 56.6% |
| Vélez Sarsfield or Belgrano (12) | 71.6% |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% |
| Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet | 35.0% |
| Belgrano clean sheet | 25.5% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Vélez Sarsfield 1-1 Belgrano | 13.4% |
| Vélez Sarsfield 1-0 Belgrano | 11.5% |
| Vélez Sarsfield 0-0 Belgrano | 9.5% |
| Vélez Sarsfield 2-1 Belgrano | 8.8% |
| Vélez Sarsfield 0-1 Belgrano | 8.7% |
| Vélez Sarsfield 2-0 Belgrano | 8.3% |
| Vélez Sarsfield 1-2 Belgrano | 6.7% |
| Vélez Sarsfield 0-2 Belgrano | 4.9% |
| Stat | Vélez Sarsfield | Belgrano | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 | 1.05 | 2.42 |
| Corners | 5.1 | 3.9 | 9.0 |
| Shots | 15.5 | 11.9 | 27.4 |
| Shots on target | 5.0 | 3.8 | 8.8 |
| Yellow cards | 1.9 | 2.6 | 4.6 |
| Fouls | 10.2 | 12.3 | 22.5 |
| Tackles | 19.4 | 19.6 | 38.9 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 90.5% | 9.5% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 70.2% | 29.8% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 43.6% | 56.5% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 9.8% | 90.2% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 29.1% | 70.9% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 19.5% | 80.6% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 12.2% | 87.8% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 96.2% | 3.9% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 91.0% | 9.0% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 82.3% | 17.7% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 65.7% | 34.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 52.3% | 47.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 83.3% | 16.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 66.8% | 33.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 30.7% | 69.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 17.7% | 82.3% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 25.6% | 74.4% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 14.6% | 85.4% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 99.9% | 0.1% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 99.8% | 0.2% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 99.3% | 0.7% |
Our model makes Vélez Sarsfield favourites in Vélez Sarsfield v Belgrano on Friday 20 November, with a 44% chance of a home win, 28% for the draw and 28% for Belgrano, from projected goals of 1.37 for Vélez Sarsfield and 1.05 for Belgrano.
The most likely score in Vélez Sarsfield v Belgrano is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 at 12% and 0-0 at 10%, from our model's projection of 1.37 goals for Vélez Sarsfield and 1.05 for Belgrano, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Vélez Sarsfield v Belgrano, at 49% yes and 51% no, with Vélez Sarsfield keeping a clean sheet 35% of the time and Belgrano 25%, from projected goals of 1.37 and 1.05.
Our model projects 2.42 goals in Vélez Sarsfield v Belgrano, with over 1.5 goals at 70% and over 2.5 at 44%, and two goals the likeliest total at 27%.
Our model expects 9.0 corners in Vélez Sarsfield v Belgrano on Friday 20 November, 5.1 for Vélez Sarsfield and 3.9 for Belgrano, putting over 8.5 corners at 54% and over 9.5 at 41%.
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards in Vélez Sarsfield v Belgrano on Friday 20 November, 1.9 for Vélez Sarsfield and 2.6 for Belgrano, putting over 4.5 cards at 48% and over 5.5 at 31%.
The Vélez Sarsfield v Belgrano simulation turns our projections of 1.37 goals for Vélez Sarsfield and 1.05 for Belgrano into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.