Win, draw and score chances for Orlando City v Cincinnati, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Orlando City win | 40.9% |
| Draw | 21.7% |
| Cincinnati win | 37.4% |
| Orlando City or draw (1X) | 62.6% |
| Cincinnati or draw (X2) | 59.1% |
| Orlando City or Cincinnati (12) | 78.3% |
| Both teams to score | 76.9% |
| Orlando City clean sheet | 13.3% |
| Cincinnati clean sheet | 12.1% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Orlando City 1-1 Cincinnati | 7.5% |
| Orlando City 2-2 Cincinnati | 7.3% |
| Orlando City 2-1 Cincinnati | 7.2% |
| Orlando City 1-2 Cincinnati | 6.9% |
| Orlando City 3-2 Cincinnati | 5.1% |
| Orlando City 3-1 Cincinnati | 5.1% |
| Orlando City 2-3 Cincinnati | 4.9% |
| Orlando City 1-3 Cincinnati | 4.7% |
| Stat | Orlando City | Cincinnati | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.11 | 2.02 | 4.13 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 5.1 | 9.9 |
| Shots | 16.6 | 15.4 | 32.1 |
| Shots on target | 6.1 | 5.8 | 11.9 |
| Yellow cards | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3.3 |
| Fouls | 10.0 | 10.7 | 20.7 |
| Tackles | 14.6 | 14.5 | 29.1 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 97.7% | 2.3% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 92.4% | 7.6% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 78.0% | 22.0% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 29.4% | 70.7% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 99.5% | 0.5% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 98.5% | 1.6% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 96.0% | 4.0% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 91.4% | 8.6% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 95.1% | 4.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 90.5% | 9.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 74.7% | 25.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 24.2% | 75.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 12.0% | 88.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 5.3% | 94.7% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 26.4% | 73.6% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 7.4% | 92.6% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.1% | 1.9% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 95.0% | 5.0% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 89.2% | 10.8% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 79.9% | 20.1% |
Our model makes Orlando City favourites in Orlando City v Cincinnati on Friday 20 November, with a 41% chance of a home win, 22% for the draw and 37% for Cincinnati, from projected goals of 2.11 for Orlando City and 2.02 for Cincinnati.
The most likely score in Orlando City v Cincinnati is 1-1 at 8%, ahead of 2-2 at 7% and 2-1 at 7%, from our model's projection of 2.11 goals for Orlando City and 2.02 for Cincinnati, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 77% of the outcomes our model gives Orlando City v Cincinnati, making yes the likelier answer, with Orlando City keeping a clean sheet 13% of the time and Cincinnati 12%, from projected goals of 2.11 and 2.02.
Our model projects 4.13 goals in Orlando City v Cincinnati, with over 3.5 goals at 59% and over 4.5 at 40%, and four goals the likeliest total at 20%.
Our model expects 9.9 corners in Orlando City v Cincinnati on Friday 20 November, 4.8 for Orlando City and 5.1 for Cincinnati, putting over 9.5 corners at 53% and over 10.5 at 41%.
Our model expects 3.3 yellow cards in Orlando City v Cincinnati on Friday 20 November, 1.7 for Orlando City and 1.6 for Cincinnati, putting over 2.5 cards at 65% and over 3.5 at 43%.
The Orlando City v Cincinnati simulation turns our projections of 2.11 goals for Orlando City and 2.02 for Cincinnati into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.