Win, draw and score chances for Malawi v Egypt, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Malawi win | 12.2% |
| Draw | 23.0% |
| Egypt win | 64.8% |
| Malawi or draw (1X) | 35.2% |
| Egypt or draw (X2) | 87.8% |
| Malawi or Egypt (12) | 77.0% |
| Both teams to score | 36.2% |
| Malawi clean sheet | 18.1% |
| Egypt clean sheet | 55.8% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Malawi 0-1 Egypt | 17.3% |
| Malawi 0-2 Egypt | 14.8% |
| Malawi 0-0 Egypt | 10.1% |
| Malawi 1-1 Egypt | 10.1% |
| Malawi 1-2 Egypt | 8.6% |
| Malawi 0-3 Egypt | 8.4% |
| Malawi 1-0 Egypt | 5.9% |
| Malawi 1-3 Egypt | 4.9% |
| Stat | Malawi | Egypt | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.58 | 1.71 | 2.29 |
| Corners | 4.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 |
| Shots | 6.3 | 11.6 | 17.9 |
| Shots on target | 2.1 | 4.4 | 6.5 |
| Yellow cards | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3.2 |
| Fouls | 11.9 | 10.7 | 22.6 |
| Tackles | 14.9 | 14.2 | 29.1 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 89.9% | 10.1% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 19.9% | 80.1% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 8.3% | 91.7% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 19.4% | 80.6% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 12.2% | 87.8% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 26.3% | 73.7% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 14.0% | 86.0% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 6.6% | 93.4% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 2.7% | 97.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 32.2% | 67.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 20.4% | 79.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 12.0% | 88.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 6.5% | 93.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 38.6% | 61.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 21.0% | 79.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 9.9% | 90.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 4.1% | 95.9% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 57.7% | 42.4% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 26.2% | 73.8% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 15.0% | 85.0% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.1% | 1.9% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 95.1% | 4.9% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 89.4% | 10.6% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 80.2% | 19.8% |
Our model makes Egypt favourites in Malawi v Egypt on Tuesday 17 November, with a 65% chance of an away win, 23% for the draw and 12% for Malawi, from projected goals of 1.71 for Egypt and 0.58 for Malawi.
The most likely score in Malawi v Egypt is 0-1 at 17%, ahead of 0-2 at 15% and 0-0 at 10%, from our model's projection of 0.58 goals for Malawi and 1.71 for Egypt, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Malawi v Egypt, at 36% yes and 64% no, with Malawi keeping a clean sheet 18% of the time and Egypt 56%, from projected goals of 0.58 and 1.71.
Our model projects 2.29 goals in Malawi v Egypt, with over 1.5 goals at 67% and over 2.5 at 40%, and two goals the likeliest total at 27%.
Our model expects 9.0 corners in Malawi v Egypt on Tuesday 17 November, 4.0 for Malawi and 5.0 for Egypt, putting over 8.5 corners at 54% and over 9.5 at 41%.
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards in Malawi v Egypt on Tuesday 17 November, 1.7 for Malawi and 1.5 for Egypt, putting over 2.5 cards at 61% and over 3.5 at 39%.
The Malawi v Egypt simulation turns our projections of 0.58 goals for Malawi and 1.71 for Egypt into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.