Win, draw and score chances for Gambia v Ivory Coast, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 13 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Gambia win | 19.4% |
| Draw | 26.3% |
| Ivory Coast win | 54.3% |
| Gambia or draw (1X) | 45.7% |
| Ivory Coast or draw (X2) | 80.6% |
| Gambia or Ivory Coast (12) | 73.7% |
| Both teams to score | 41.7% |
| Gambia clean sheet | 22.5% |
| Ivory Coast clean sheet | 46.2% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Gambia 0-1 Ivory Coast | 15.5% |
| Gambia 1-1 Ivory Coast | 12.0% |
| Gambia 0-2 Ivory Coast | 11.6% |
| Gambia 0-0 Ivory Coast | 10.4% |
| Gambia 1-2 Ivory Coast | 8.9% |
| Gambia 1-0 Ivory Coast | 8.0% |
| Gambia 0-3 Ivory Coast | 5.8% |
| Gambia 2-1 Ivory Coast | 4.6% |
| Stat | Gambia | Ivory Coast | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.77 | 1.49 | 2.26 |
| Corners | 3.8 | 6.1 | 9.9 |
| Shots | 6.9 | 10.9 | 17.7 |
| Shots on target | 2.6 | 3.8 | 6.4 |
| Yellow cards | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3.2 |
| Fouls | 12.9 | 12.1 | 25.1 |
| Tackles | 15.6 | 15.0 | 30.5 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 89.6% | 10.4% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 19.3% | 80.7% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 8.0% | 92.0% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 76.8% | 23.3% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 28.8% | 71.2% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 19.6% | 80.4% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 24.6% | 75.4% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 12.9% | 87.1% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 5.9% | 94.1% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 2.4% | 97.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 20.1% | 79.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 11.7% | 88.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 6.3% | 93.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 21.9% | 78.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 10.5% | 89.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 4.4% | 95.6% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 86.8% | 13.2% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 75.6% | 24.4% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 30.3% | 69.7% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.7% | 0.3% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 99.0% | 1.0% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 97.1% | 2.9% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 93.2% | 6.8% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 86.4% | 13.6% |
Our model makes Ivory Coast favourites in Gambia v Ivory Coast on Tuesday 17 November, with a 54% chance of an away win, 26% for the draw and 20% for Gambia, from projected goals of 1.49 for Ivory Coast and 0.77 for Gambia.
The most likely score in Gambia v Ivory Coast is 0-1 at 16%, ahead of 1-1 at 12% and 0-2 at 12%, from our model's projection of 0.77 goals for Gambia and 1.49 for Ivory Coast, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Gambia v Ivory Coast, at 42% yes and 58% no, with Gambia keeping a clean sheet 23% of the time and Ivory Coast 46%, from projected goals of 0.77 and 1.49.
Our model projects 2.26 goals in Gambia v Ivory Coast, with over 1.5 goals at 66% and over 2.5 at 39%, and two goals the likeliest total at 27%.
Our model expects 9.9 corners in Gambia v Ivory Coast on Tuesday 17 November, 3.8 for Gambia and 6.1 for Ivory Coast, putting over 9.5 corners at 53% and over 10.5 at 40%.
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards in Gambia v Ivory Coast on Tuesday 17 November, 1.5 for Gambia and 1.7 for Ivory Coast, putting over 2.5 cards at 62% and over 3.5 at 40%.
The Gambia v Ivory Coast simulation turns our projections of 0.77 goals for Gambia and 1.49 for Ivory Coast into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.