Win, draw and score chances for Somalia v Ghana, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 13 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Somalia win | 2.5% |
| Draw | 10.2% |
| Ghana win | 87.3% |
| Somalia or draw (1X) | 12.7% |
| Ghana or draw (X2) | 97.5% |
| Somalia or Ghana (12) | 89.8% |
| Both teams to score | 23.5% |
| Somalia clean sheet | 7.0% |
| Ghana clean sheet | 74.8% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Somalia 0-2 Ghana | 18.5% |
| Somalia 0-3 Ghana | 16.4% |
| Somalia 0-1 Ghana | 14.0% |
| Somalia 0-4 Ghana | 10.9% |
| Somalia 0-5 Ghana | 5.8% |
| Somalia 1-2 Ghana | 5.4% |
| Somalia 0-0 Ghana | 5.3% |
| Somalia 1-3 Ghana | 4.8% |
| Stat | Somalia | Ghana | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.29 | 2.65 | 2.94 |
| Corners | 3.3 | 5.4 | 8.6 |
| Shots | 4.6 | 13.5 | 18.1 |
| Shots on target | 1.6 | 5.2 | 6.8 |
| Yellow cards | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.8 |
| Fouls | 11.3 | 13.7 | 25.0 |
| Tackles | 18.2 | 13.1 | 31.2 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 94.7% | 5.3% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 79.2% | 20.8% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 17.6% | 82.5% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 25.3% | 74.8% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 16.4% | 83.6% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 10.0% | 90.0% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 27.8% | 72.2% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 15.1% | 84.9% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 7.2% | 92.8% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 3.0% | 97.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 24.6% | 75.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 15.0% | 85.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 8.5% | 91.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 15.5% | 84.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 6.7% | 93.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 2.5% | 97.5% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 86.6% | 13.4% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 29.9% | 70.1% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.8% | 0.2% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 99.3% | 0.8% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 97.8% | 2.2% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 94.7% | 5.3% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 88.9% | 11.1% |
Our model makes Ghana favourites in Somalia v Ghana on Monday 16 November, with a 87% chance of an away win, 10% for the draw and 3% for Somalia, from projected goals of 2.65 for Ghana and 0.29 for Somalia.
The most likely score in Somalia v Ghana is 0-2 at 19%, ahead of 0-3 at 16% and 0-1 at 14%, from our model's projection of 0.29 goals for Somalia and 2.65 for Ghana, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Somalia v Ghana, at 23% yes and 77% no, with Somalia keeping a clean sheet 7% of the time and Ghana 75%, from projected goals of 0.29 and 2.65.
Our model projects 2.94 goals in Somalia v Ghana, with over 2.5 goals at 56% and over 3.5 at 34%, and two goals the likeliest total at 23%.
Our model expects 8.6 corners in Somalia v Ghana on Monday 16 November, 3.3 for Somalia and 5.4 for Ghana, putting over 8.5 corners at 50% and over 9.5 at 37%.
Our model expects 2.8 yellow cards in Somalia v Ghana on Monday 16 November, 1.5 for Somalia and 1.3 for Ghana, putting over 2.5 cards at 54% and over 3.5 at 31%.
The Somalia v Ghana simulation turns our projections of 0.29 goals for Somalia and 2.65 for Ghana into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.