Win, draw and score chances for Kenya v South Africa, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 13 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Kenya win | 25.2% |
| Draw | 31.1% |
| South Africa win | 43.7% |
| Kenya or draw (1X) | 56.3% |
| South Africa or draw (X2) | 74.8% |
| Kenya or South Africa (12) | 68.9% |
| Both teams to score | 36.4% |
| Kenya clean sheet | 32.5% |
| South Africa clean sheet | 46.0% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Kenya 0-1 South Africa | 16.8% |
| Kenya 0-0 South Africa | 15.0% |
| Kenya 1-1 South Africa | 13.1% |
| Kenya 1-0 South Africa | 11.6% |
| Kenya 0-2 South Africa | 9.5% |
| Kenya 1-2 South Africa | 7.3% |
| Kenya 2-1 South Africa | 5.1% |
| Kenya 2-0 South Africa | 4.5% |
| Stat | Kenya | South Africa | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.78 | 1.12 | 1.90 |
| Corners | 3.9 | 4.1 | 8.0 |
| Shots | 6.9 | 8.9 | 15.8 |
| Shots on target | 2.4 | 3.5 | 5.9 |
| Yellow cards | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Fouls | 13.2 | 10.7 | 23.9 |
| Tackles | 13.5 | 15.1 | 28.5 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 85.0% | 15.0% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 29.6% | 70.4% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 4.4% | 95.6% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 28.3% | 71.7% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 18.4% | 81.6% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 11.2% | 88.8% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 6.4% | 93.6% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 23.9% | 76.1% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 11.9% | 88.1% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 5.1% | 94.9% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 1.9% | 98.1% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 0.6% | 99.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 38.4% | 61.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 24.8% | 75.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 14.7% | 85.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 8.0% | 92.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 4.0% | 96.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 18.9% | 81.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 8.7% | 91.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 3.5% | 96.5% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 81.3% | 18.7% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 35.8% | 64.2% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 22.4% | 77.6% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.2% | 0.8% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 97.6% | 2.4% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 94.0% | 6.0% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 87.3% | 12.7% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 77.1% | 22.9% |
Our model makes South Africa favourites in Kenya v South Africa on Tuesday 17 November, with a 44% chance of an away win, 31% for the draw and 25% for Kenya, from projected goals of 1.12 for South Africa and 0.78 for Kenya.
The most likely score in Kenya v South Africa is 0-1 at 17%, ahead of 0-0 at 15% and 1-1 at 13%, from our model's projection of 0.78 goals for Kenya and 1.12 for South Africa, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Kenya v South Africa, at 36% yes and 64% no, with Kenya keeping a clean sheet 33% of the time and South Africa 46%, from projected goals of 0.78 and 1.12.
Our model projects 1.90 goals in Kenya v South Africa, with over 1.5 goals at 57% and over 2.5 at 30%, and one goal the likeliest total at 28%.
Our model expects 8.0 corners in Kenya v South Africa on Tuesday 17 November, 3.9 for Kenya and 4.1 for South Africa, putting over 7.5 corners at 55% and over 8.5 at 41%.
Our model expects 3.0 yellow cards in Kenya v South Africa on Tuesday 17 November, 1.5 for Kenya and 1.5 for South Africa, putting over 2.5 cards at 58% and over 3.5 at 36%.
The Kenya v South Africa simulation turns our projections of 0.78 goals for Kenya and 1.12 for South Africa into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.