Win, draw and score chances for Sierra Leone v DR Congo, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sierra Leone win | 13.1% |
| Draw | 25.6% |
| DR Congo win | 61.3% |
| Sierra Leone or draw (1X) | 38.7% |
| DR Congo or draw (X2) | 86.9% |
| Sierra Leone or DR Congo (12) | 74.5% |
| Both teams to score | 32.8% |
| Sierra Leone clean sheet | 21.8% |
| DR Congo clean sheet | 58.0% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sierra Leone 0-1 DR Congo | 19.3% |
| Sierra Leone 0-2 DR Congo | 14.7% |
| Sierra Leone 0-0 DR Congo | 12.7% |
| Sierra Leone 1-1 DR Congo | 10.5% |
| Sierra Leone 1-2 DR Congo | 8.0% |
| Sierra Leone 0-3 DR Congo | 7.4% |
| Sierra Leone 1-0 DR Congo | 6.9% |
| Sierra Leone 1-3 DR Congo | 4.1% |
| Stat | Sierra Leone | DR Congo | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.55 | 1.52 | 2.07 |
| Corners | 3.8 | 4.2 | 8.0 |
| Shots | 5.7 | 10.2 | 15.9 |
| Shots on target | 2.1 | 3.6 | 5.7 |
| Yellow cards | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.9 |
| Fouls | 13.3 | 14.8 | 28.0 |
| Tackles | 15.0 | 16.1 | 31.1 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 87.3% | 12.7% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 34.1% | 65.9% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 15.5% | 84.5% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 5.9% | 94.1% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 28.2% | 71.8% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 18.3% | 81.7% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 11.1% | 88.9% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 6.3% | 93.7% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 24.7% | 75.3% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 5.4% | 94.6% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 2.1% | 97.9% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 0.7% | 99.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 20.9% | 79.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 11.9% | 88.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 6.2% | 93.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 3.0% | 97.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 16.3% | 83.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 7.1% | 92.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 2.7% | 97.3% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 95.2% | 4.8% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 89.5% | 10.6% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 80.1% | 19.9% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.8% | 0.2% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 99.2% | 0.8% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 97.7% | 2.3% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 94.4% | 5.6% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 88.4% | 11.6% |
Our model makes DR Congo favourites in Sierra Leone v DR Congo on Tuesday 17 November, with a 61% chance of an away win, 26% for the draw and 13% for Sierra Leone, from projected goals of 1.52 for DR Congo and 0.55 for Sierra Leone.
The most likely score in Sierra Leone v DR Congo is 0-1 at 19%, ahead of 0-2 at 15% and 0-0 at 13%, from our model's projection of 0.55 goals for Sierra Leone and 1.52 for DR Congo, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Sierra Leone v DR Congo, at 33% yes and 67% no, with Sierra Leone keeping a clean sheet 22% of the time and DR Congo 58%, from projected goals of 0.55 and 1.52.
Our model projects 2.07 goals in Sierra Leone v DR Congo, with over 1.5 goals at 61% and over 2.5 at 34%, and two goals the likeliest total at 27%.
Our model expects 8.0 corners in Sierra Leone v DR Congo on Tuesday 17 November, 3.8 for Sierra Leone and 4.2 for DR Congo, putting over 7.5 corners at 55% and over 8.5 at 41%.
Our model expects 2.9 yellow cards in Sierra Leone v DR Congo on Tuesday 17 November, 1.6 for Sierra Leone and 1.3 for DR Congo, putting over 2.5 cards at 55% and over 3.5 at 32%.
The Sierra Leone v DR Congo simulation turns our projections of 0.55 goals for Sierra Leone and 1.52 for DR Congo into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.