Win, draw and score chances for Libya v Tunisia, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Libya win | 24.4% |
| Draw | 30.8% |
| Tunisia win | 44.8% |
| Libya or draw (1X) | 55.2% |
| Tunisia or draw (X2) | 75.7% |
| Libya or Tunisia (12) | 69.2% |
| Both teams to score | 36.6% |
| Libya clean sheet | 31.6% |
| Tunisia clean sheet | 46.5% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Libya 0-1 Tunisia | 16.9% |
| Libya 0-0 Tunisia | 14.7% |
| Libya 1-1 Tunisia | 13.0% |
| Libya 1-0 Tunisia | 11.3% |
| Libya 0-2 Tunisia | 9.8% |
| Libya 1-2 Tunisia | 7.5% |
| Libya 2-1 Tunisia | 5.0% |
| Libya 2-0 Tunisia | 4.3% |
| Stat | Libya | Tunisia | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.76 | 1.15 | 1.92 |
| Corners | 3.9 | 5.6 | 9.4 |
| Shots | 6.6 | 8.8 | 15.3 |
| Shots on target | 2.5 | 3.2 | 5.7 |
| Yellow cards | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3.4 |
| Fouls | 12.3 | 14.3 | 26.6 |
| Tackles | 15.7 | 14.8 | 30.5 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 85.3% | 14.7% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 12.8% | 87.2% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 4.6% | 95.5% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 59.8% | 40.3% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 23.9% | 76.1% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 15.6% | 84.4% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 20.4% | 79.6% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 9.7% | 90.3% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 4.0% | 96.0% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 1.4% | 98.6% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 0.4% | 99.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 34.5% | 65.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 21.5% | 78.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 12.3% | 87.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 6.4% | 93.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 3.1% | 96.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 24.6% | 75.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 12.3% | 87.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 5.4% | 94.6% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 92.0% | 8.0% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 71.7% | 28.3% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.7% | 0.3% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.9% | 1.1% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 97.0% | 3.0% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 93.1% | 7.0% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 86.1% | 13.9% |
Our model makes Tunisia favourites in Libya v Tunisia on Tuesday 17 November, with a 45% chance of an away win, 31% for the draw and 24% for Libya, from projected goals of 1.15 for Tunisia and 0.76 for Libya.
The most likely score in Libya v Tunisia is 0-1 at 17%, ahead of 0-0 at 15% and 1-1 at 13%, from our model's projection of 0.76 goals for Libya and 1.15 for Tunisia, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Libya v Tunisia, at 37% yes and 63% no, with Libya keeping a clean sheet 32% of the time and Tunisia 47%, from projected goals of 0.76 and 1.15.
Our model projects 1.92 goals in Libya v Tunisia, with over 1.5 goals at 57% and over 2.5 at 30%, and one goal the likeliest total at 28%.
Our model expects 9.4 corners in Libya v Tunisia on Tuesday 17 November, 3.9 for Libya and 5.6 for Tunisia, putting over 8.5 corners at 60% and over 9.5 at 47%.
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards in Libya v Tunisia on Tuesday 17 November, 1.9 for Libya and 1.4 for Tunisia, putting over 2.5 cards at 65% and over 3.5 at 43%.
The Libya v Tunisia simulation turns our projections of 0.76 goals for Libya and 1.15 for Tunisia into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.