Win, draw and score chances for Tanzania v Nigeria, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 13 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Tanzania win | 14.3% |
| Draw | 27.4% |
| Nigeria win | 58.3% |
| Tanzania or draw (1X) | 41.7% |
| Nigeria or draw (X2) | 85.7% |
| Tanzania or Nigeria (12) | 72.6% |
| Both teams to score | 31.7% |
| Tanzania clean sheet | 24.5% |
| Nigeria clean sheet | 58.0% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Tanzania 0-1 Nigeria | 20.0% |
| Tanzania 0-0 Nigeria | 14.2% |
| Tanzania 0-2 Nigeria | 14.1% |
| Tanzania 1-1 Nigeria | 10.9% |
| Tanzania 1-0 Nigeria | 7.7% |
| Tanzania 1-2 Nigeria | 7.7% |
| Tanzania 0-3 Nigeria | 6.6% |
| Tanzania 1-3 Nigeria | 3.6% |
| Stat | Tanzania | Nigeria | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.54 | 1.41 | 1.95 |
| Corners | 3.6 | 4.1 | 7.7 |
| Shots | 5.7 | 9.4 | 15.2 |
| Shots on target | 1.9 | 3.8 | 5.7 |
| Yellow cards | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3.3 |
| Fouls | 12.9 | 17.0 | 29.9 |
| Tackles | 15.6 | 13.7 | 29.3 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 85.8% | 14.2% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 13.4% | 86.6% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 4.8% | 95.2% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 24.3% | 75.7% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 15.3% | 84.7% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 9.0% | 91.1% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 4.9% | 95.1% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 19.2% | 80.8% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 9.0% | 91.0% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 3.6% | 96.4% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 1.3% | 98.8% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 0.4% | 99.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 21.2% | 78.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 12.0% | 88.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 6.3% | 93.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 3.0% | 97.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 23.5% | 76.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 11.6% | 88.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 5.0% | 95.0% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 97.7% | 2.3% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 94.3% | 5.7% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 88.2% | 11.8% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.5% | 0.6% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.2% | 1.8% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 95.4% | 4.6% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 89.9% | 10.1% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 81.0% | 19.0% |
Our model makes Nigeria favourites in Tanzania v Nigeria on Tuesday 17 November, with a 58% chance of an away win, 28% for the draw and 14% for Tanzania, from projected goals of 1.41 for Nigeria and 0.54 for Tanzania.
The most likely score in Tanzania v Nigeria is 0-1 at 20%, ahead of 0-0 at 14% and 0-2 at 14%, from our model's projection of 0.54 goals for Tanzania and 1.41 for Nigeria, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Tanzania v Nigeria, at 32% yes and 68% no, with Tanzania keeping a clean sheet 25% of the time and Nigeria 58%, from projected goals of 0.54 and 1.41.
Our model projects 1.95 goals in Tanzania v Nigeria, with over 1.5 goals at 58% and over 2.5 at 31%, and one goal the likeliest total at 28%.
Our model expects 7.7 corners in Tanzania v Nigeria on Tuesday 17 November, 3.6 for Tanzania and 4.1 for Nigeria, putting over 7.5 corners at 50% and over 8.5 at 36%.
Our model expects 3.3 yellow cards in Tanzania v Nigeria on Tuesday 17 November, 1.7 for Tanzania and 1.6 for Nigeria, putting over 2.5 cards at 64% and over 3.5 at 42%.
The Tanzania v Nigeria simulation turns our projections of 0.54 goals for Tanzania and 1.41 for Nigeria into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.