Win, draw and score chances for Japan v Paraguay, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Japan win | 58.8% |
| Draw | 23.8% |
| Paraguay win | 17.4% |
| Japan or draw (1X) | 82.6% |
| Paraguay or draw (X2) | 41.2% |
| Japan or Paraguay (12) | 76.2% |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% |
| Japan clean sheet | 44.8% |
| Paraguay clean sheet | 18.2% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Japan 1-0 Paraguay | 13.9% |
| Japan 2-0 Paraguay | 11.8% |
| Japan 1-1 Paraguay | 11.2% |
| Japan 2-1 Paraguay | 9.5% |
| Japan 0-0 Paraguay | 8.2% |
| Japan 3-0 Paraguay | 6.7% |
| Japan 0-1 Paraguay | 6.6% |
| Japan 3-1 Paraguay | 5.4% |
| Stat | Japan | Paraguay | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 | 0.80 | 2.51 |
| Corners | 5.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 |
| Shots | 11.2 | 7.7 | 18.9 |
| Shots on target | 4.2 | 2.7 | 7.0 |
| Yellow cards | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3.2 |
| Fouls | 11.6 | 10.9 | 22.5 |
| Tackles | 13.8 | 16.8 | 30.5 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 91.8% | 8.2% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 24.4% | 75.6% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 11.0% | 89.0% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 29.3% | 70.8% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 19.6% | 80.4% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 12.3% | 87.7% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 10.2% | 89.8% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 4.6% | 95.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 26.5% | 73.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 16.5% | 83.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 9.5% | 90.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 62.2% | 37.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 22.1% | 77.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 10.6% | 89.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 4.5% | 95.5% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 25.9% | 74.2% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.7% | 0.3% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 99.0% | 1.0% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 97.1% | 2.9% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 93.3% | 6.7% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 86.5% | 13.5% |
Our model makes Japan favourites in Japan v Paraguay on Tuesday 17 November, with a 59% chance of a home win, 24% for the draw and 17% for Paraguay, from projected goals of 1.70 for Japan and 0.80 for Paraguay.
The most likely score in Japan v Paraguay is 1-0 at 14%, ahead of 2-0 at 12% and 1-1 at 11%, from our model's projection of 1.70 goals for Japan and 0.80 for Paraguay, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Japan v Paraguay, at 45% yes and 55% no, with Japan keeping a clean sheet 45% of the time and Paraguay 18%, from projected goals of 1.70 and 0.80.
Our model projects 2.51 goals in Japan v Paraguay, with over 2.5 goals at 46% and over 3.5 at 24%, and two goals the likeliest total at 26%.
Our model expects 9.0 corners in Japan v Paraguay on Tuesday 17 November, 5.0 for Japan and 4.0 for Paraguay, putting over 8.5 corners at 54% and over 9.5 at 41%.
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards in Japan v Paraguay on Tuesday 17 November, 1.5 for Japan and 1.7 for Paraguay, putting over 2.5 cards at 62% and over 3.5 at 40%.
The Japan v Paraguay simulation turns our projections of 1.70 goals for Japan and 0.80 for Paraguay into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.