Win, draw and score chances for Al Ahli v Al Nassr, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Al Ahli win | 30.7% |
| Draw | 25.7% |
| Al Nassr win | 43.6% |
| Al Ahli or draw (1X) | 56.4% |
| Al Nassr or draw (X2) | 69.3% |
| Al Ahli or Al Nassr (12) | 74.4% |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% |
| Al Ahli clean sheet | 20.3% |
| Al Nassr clean sheet | 27.1% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Al Ahli 1-1 Al Nassr | 12.0% |
| Al Ahli 1-2 Al Nassr | 9.1% |
| Al Ahli 0-1 Al Nassr | 8.2% |
| Al Ahli 2-1 Al Nassr | 7.5% |
| Al Ahli 0-2 Al Nassr | 7.0% |
| Al Ahli 1-0 Al Nassr | 6.6% |
| Al Ahli 0-0 Al Nassr | 6.1% |
| Al Ahli 2-2 Al Nassr | 6.0% |
| Stat | Al Ahli | Al Nassr | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 | 1.59 | 2.90 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 5.1 | 9.3 |
| Shots | 11.5 | 13.4 | 24.9 |
| Shots on target | 4.4 | 4.7 | 9.1 |
| Yellow cards | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3.4 |
| Fouls | 12.3 | 11.8 | 24.1 |
| Tackles | 15.4 | 14.2 | 29.5 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 93.9% | 6.1% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 79.1% | 20.9% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 16.8% | 83.2% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 22.9% | 77.1% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 14.9% | 85.2% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 90.5% | 9.5% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 80.9% | 19.1% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 79.9% | 20.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 68.4% | 31.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 65.8% | 34.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 43.9% | 56.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 25.3% | 74.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 12.8% | 87.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 5.7% | 94.3% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 82.3% | 17.7% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 69.0% | 31.0% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 37.3% | 62.7% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 23.6% | 76.4% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.5% | 0.5% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.4% | 1.6% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 95.8% | 4.2% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 90.7% | 9.3% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 82.2% | 17.8% |
Our model makes Al Nassr favourites in Al Ahli v Al Nassr on Friday 20 November, with a 43% chance of an away win, 26% for the draw and 31% for Al Ahli, from projected goals of 1.59 for Al Nassr and 1.30 for Al Ahli.
The most likely score in Al Ahli v Al Nassr is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 at 9% and 0-1 at 8%, from our model's projection of 1.30 goals for Al Ahli and 1.59 for Al Nassr, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 59% of the outcomes our model gives Al Ahli v Al Nassr, making yes the likelier answer, with Al Ahli keeping a clean sheet 20% of the time and Al Nassr 27%, from projected goals of 1.30 and 1.59.
Our model projects 2.90 goals in Al Ahli v Al Nassr, with over 2.5 goals at 55% and over 3.5 at 33%, and two goals the likeliest total at 24%.
Our model expects 9.3 corners in Al Ahli v Al Nassr on Friday 20 November, 4.3 for Al Ahli and 5.1 for Al Nassr, putting over 8.5 corners at 59% and over 9.5 at 45%.
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards in Al Ahli v Al Nassr on Friday 20 November, 1.6 for Al Ahli and 1.8 for Al Nassr, putting over 2.5 cards at 66% and over 3.5 at 44%.
The Al Ahli v Al Nassr simulation turns our projections of 1.30 goals for Al Ahli and 1.59 for Al Nassr into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.