Win, draw and score chances for Bayern v Koln, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bayern win | 85.6% |
| Draw | 9.6% |
| Koln win | 4.8% |
| Bayern or draw (1X) | 95.2% |
| Koln or draw (X2) | 14.4% |
| Bayern or Koln (12) | 90.4% |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% |
| Bayern clean sheet | 43.7% |
| Koln clean sheet | 3.1% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bayern 3-0 Koln | 9.4% |
| Bayern 4-0 Koln | 8.2% |
| Bayern 2-0 Koln | 8.1% |
| Bayern 3-1 Koln | 7.8% |
| Bayern 4-1 Koln | 6.8% |
| Bayern 2-1 Koln | 6.7% |
| Bayern 5-0 Koln | 5.8% |
| Bayern 5-1 Koln | 4.8% |
| Stat | Bayern | Koln | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.49 | 0.83 | 4.32 |
| Corners | 7.5 | 3.5 | 11.0 |
| Shots | 27.1 | 9.2 | 36.2 |
| Shots on target | 10.6 | 3.1 | 13.6 |
| Yellow cards | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| Fouls | 8.9 | 8.3 | 17.2 |
| Tackles | 14.1 | 16.5 | 30.6 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 98.4% | 1.6% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 93.2% | 6.8% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 80.5% | 19.5% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 85.9% | 14.1% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 99.9% | 0.1% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 99.8% | 0.2% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 99.2% | 0.8% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 97.9% | 2.1% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 95.3% | 4.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 98.2% | 1.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 96.1% | 3.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 92.6% | 7.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 87.2% | 12.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 79.8% | 20.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 64.0% | 36.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 41.9% | 58.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 23.7% | 76.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 11.7% | 88.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 5.1% | 94.9% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 27.6% | 72.4% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 14.7% | 85.3% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 6.8% | 93.2% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 2.8% | 97.2% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 1.0% | 99.0% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.7% | 0.3% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 99.0% | 1.0% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 97.2% | 2.8% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 93.3% | 6.7% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 86.6% | 13.5% |
Our model makes Bayern favourites in Bayern v Koln on Friday 20 November, with a 85% chance of a home win, 10% for the draw and 5% for Koln, from projected goals of 3.49 for Bayern and 0.83 for Koln.
The most likely score in Bayern v Koln is 3-0 at 9%, ahead of 4-0 at 8% and 2-0 at 8%, from our model's projection of 3.49 goals for Bayern and 0.83 for Koln, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 55% of the outcomes our model gives Bayern v Koln, making yes the likelier answer, with Bayern keeping a clean sheet 44% of the time and Koln 3%, from projected goals of 3.49 and 0.83.
Our model projects 4.32 goals in Bayern v Koln, with over 3.5 goals at 63% and over 4.5 at 43%, and four goals the likeliest total at 19%.
Our model expects 11.0 corners in Bayern v Koln on Friday 20 November, 7.5 for Bayern and 3.5 for Koln, putting over 10.5 corners at 54% and over 11.5 at 42%.
Our model expects 3.3 yellow cards in Bayern v Koln on Friday 20 November, 1.6 for Bayern and 1.7 for Koln, putting over 2.5 cards at 64% and over 3.5 at 42%.
The Bayern v Koln simulation turns our projections of 3.49 goals for Bayern and 0.83 for Koln into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.