Win, draw and score chances for Colchester v Gillingham, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Colchester win | 44.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% |
| Gillingham win | 28.6% |
| Colchester or draw (1X) | 71.4% |
| Gillingham or draw (X2) | 55.1% |
| Colchester or Gillingham (12) | 73.5% |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% |
| Colchester clean sheet | 29.4% |
| Gillingham clean sheet | 20.4% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Colchester 1-1 Gillingham | 12.5% |
| Colchester 2-1 Gillingham | 9.3% |
| Colchester 1-0 Gillingham | 8.6% |
| Colchester 2-0 Gillingham | 7.6% |
| Colchester 1-2 Gillingham | 7.2% |
| Colchester 0-0 Gillingham | 6.9% |
| Colchester 0-1 Gillingham | 6.5% |
| Colchester 2-2 Gillingham | 5.7% |
| Stat | Colchester | Gillingham | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 | 1.23 | 2.82 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 4.0 | 9.2 |
| Shots | 15.2 | 11.1 | 26.2 |
| Shots on target | 4.9 | 3.6 | 8.5 |
| Yellow cards | 1.8 | 2.7 | 4.5 |
| Fouls | 9.9 | 14.5 | 24.5 |
| Tackles | 13.2 | 16.1 | 29.3 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 93.1% | 6.9% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 78.0% | 22.0% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 31.2% | 68.9% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 15.5% | 84.5% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 31.3% | 68.8% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 21.2% | 78.8% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 13.6% | 86.4% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 94.0% | 6.0% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 87.0% | 13.0% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 76.2% | 23.8% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 23.9% | 76.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 82.9% | 17.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 17.2% | 82.8% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 84.3% | 15.8% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 26.2% | 73.8% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.5% | 0.6% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.3% | 1.8% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 95.4% | 4.6% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 89.9% | 10.1% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 81.1% | 18.9% |
Our model makes Colchester favourites in Colchester v Gillingham on Saturday 14 November, with a 45% chance of a home win, 26% for the draw and 29% for Gillingham, from projected goals of 1.59 for Colchester and 1.23 for Gillingham.
The most likely score in Colchester v Gillingham is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 2-1 at 9% and 1-0 at 9%, from our model's projection of 1.59 goals for Colchester and 1.23 for Gillingham, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 57% of the outcomes our model gives Colchester v Gillingham, making yes the likelier answer, with Colchester keeping a clean sheet 29% of the time and Gillingham 20%, from projected goals of 1.59 and 1.23.
Our model projects 2.82 goals in Colchester v Gillingham, with over 2.5 goals at 53% and over 3.5 at 31%, and two goals the likeliest total at 25%.
Our model expects 9.2 corners in Colchester v Gillingham on Saturday 14 November, 5.2 for Colchester and 4.0 for Gillingham, putting over 8.5 corners at 56% and over 9.5 at 43%.
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards in Colchester v Gillingham on Saturday 14 November, 1.8 for Colchester and 2.7 for Gillingham, putting over 4.5 cards at 47% and over 5.5 at 30%.
The Colchester v Gillingham simulation turns our projections of 1.59 goals for Colchester and 1.23 for Gillingham into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.