Win, draw and score chances for Crewe v Newport, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Crewe win | 40.6% |
| Draw | 29.2% |
| Newport win | 30.2% |
| Crewe or draw (1X) | 69.8% |
| Newport or draw (X2) | 59.4% |
| Crewe or Newport (12) | 70.8% |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% |
| Crewe clean sheet | 33.0% |
| Newport clean sheet | 26.6% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Crewe 1-1 Newport | 13.9% |
| Crewe 1-0 Newport | 10.7% |
| Crewe 0-0 Newport | 9.7% |
| Crewe 0-1 Newport | 8.8% |
| Crewe 2-1 Newport | 8.5% |
| Crewe 2-0 Newport | 7.7% |
| Crewe 1-2 Newport | 7.2% |
| Crewe 0-2 Newport | 5.4% |
| Stat | Crewe | Newport | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 | 1.11 | 2.44 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 4.0 | 8.8 |
| Shots | 13.5 | 11.8 | 25.3 |
| Shots on target | 4.3 | 3.7 | 7.9 |
| Yellow cards | 2.0 | 2.2 | 4.2 |
| Fouls | 11.3 | 13.5 | 24.8 |
| Tackles | 14.1 | 15.7 | 29.8 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 90.3% | 9.7% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 70.9% | 29.1% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 22.9% | 77.1% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 10.0% | 90.0% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 65.6% | 34.4% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 39.1% | 61.0% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 27.4% | 72.6% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 18.1% | 81.9% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 11.2% | 88.8% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 91.7% | 8.3% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 83.0% | 17.0% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 67.9% | 32.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 53.9% | 46.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 27.6% | 72.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 17.8% | 82.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 79.0% | 21.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 24.7% | 75.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 13.3% | 86.7% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 85.7% | 14.3% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.6% | 0.4% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.6% | 1.4% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 96.2% | 3.8% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 91.4% | 8.6% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 83.3% | 16.7% |
Our model makes Crewe favourites in Crewe v Newport on Saturday 14 November, with a 41% chance of a home win, 29% for the draw and 30% for Newport, from projected goals of 1.33 for Crewe and 1.11 for Newport.
The most likely score in Crewe v Newport is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 at 11% and 0-0 at 10%, from our model's projection of 1.33 goals for Crewe and 1.11 for Newport, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 50% of the outcomes our model gives Crewe v Newport, making yes the likelier answer, with Crewe keeping a clean sheet 33% of the time and Newport 27%, from projected goals of 1.33 and 1.11.
Our model projects 2.44 goals in Crewe v Newport, with over 1.5 goals at 71% and over 2.5 at 44%, and two goals the likeliest total at 27%.
Our model expects 8.8 corners in Crewe v Newport on Saturday 14 November, 4.8 for Crewe and 4.0 for Newport, putting over 8.5 corners at 52% and over 9.5 at 39%.
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards in Crewe v Newport on Saturday 14 November, 2.0 for Crewe and 2.2 for Newport, putting over 3.5 cards at 60% and over 4.5 at 41%.
The Crewe v Newport simulation turns our projections of 1.33 goals for Crewe and 1.11 for Newport into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.