Win, draw and score chances for Rochdale v York, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rochdale win | 23.6% |
| Draw | 24.8% |
| York win | 51.7% |
| Rochdale or draw (1X) | 48.3% |
| York or draw (X2) | 76.4% |
| Rochdale or York (12) | 75.3% |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% |
| Rochdale clean sheet | 16.5% |
| York clean sheet | 31.4% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rochdale 1-1 York | 11.6% |
| Rochdale 1-2 York | 9.7% |
| Rochdale 0-1 York | 8.5% |
| Rochdale 0-2 York | 8.4% |
| Rochdale 2-1 York | 6.3% |
| Rochdale 0-0 York | 6.0% |
| Rochdale 1-3 York | 5.9% |
| Rochdale 2-2 York | 5.6% |
| Stat | Rochdale | York | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 | 1.80 | 2.96 |
| Corners | 4.7 | 4.8 | 9.5 |
| Shots | 12.0 | 16.7 | 28.7 |
| Shots on target | 4.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 |
| Yellow cards | 1.8 | 2.2 | 4.0 |
| Fouls | 10.9 | 9.7 | 20.6 |
| Tackles | 12.7 | 14.8 | 27.5 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 94.0% | 6.0% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 80.3% | 19.7% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 17.8% | 82.2% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 24.8% | 75.2% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 16.4% | 83.7% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 97.8% | 2.2% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 94.4% | 5.6% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 88.1% | 11.9% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 78.2% | 21.8% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 79.4% | 20.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 29.5% | 70.6% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 76.0% | 24.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 21.3% | 78.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 11.0% | 89.0% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 58.3% | 41.8% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 14.1% | 85.9% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 7.0% | 93.1% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 98.7% | 1.3% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 96.3% | 3.7% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 91.2% | 8.8% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 82.7% | 17.3% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 70.6% | 29.4% |
Our model makes York favourites in Rochdale v York on Saturday 14 November, with a 52% chance of an away win, 25% for the draw and 23% for Rochdale, from projected goals of 1.80 for York and 1.16 for Rochdale.
The most likely score in Rochdale v York is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 at 10% and 0-1 at 9%, from our model's projection of 1.16 goals for Rochdale and 1.80 for York, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 58% of the outcomes our model gives Rochdale v York, making yes the likelier answer, with Rochdale keeping a clean sheet 16% of the time and York 31%, from projected goals of 1.16 and 1.80.
Our model projects 2.96 goals in Rochdale v York, with over 2.5 goals at 57% and over 3.5 at 34%, and two goals the likeliest total at 24%.
Our model expects 9.5 corners in Rochdale v York on Saturday 14 November, 4.7 for Rochdale and 4.8 for York, putting over 8.5 corners at 61% and over 9.5 at 48%.
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards in Rochdale v York on Saturday 14 November, 1.8 for Rochdale and 2.2 for York, putting over 3.5 cards at 56% and over 4.5 at 37%.
The Rochdale v York simulation turns our projections of 1.16 goals for Rochdale and 1.80 for York into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.