Win, draw and score chances for Villa v Sunderland, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Villa win | 47.6% |
| Draw | 25.5% |
| Sunderland win | 26.9% |
| Villa or draw (1X) | 73.1% |
| Sunderland or draw (X2) | 52.4% |
| Villa or Sunderland (12) | 74.5% |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% |
| Villa clean sheet | 30.6% |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 19.3% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Villa 1-1 Sunderland | 12.1% |
| Villa 2-1 Sunderland | 9.5% |
| Villa 1-0 Sunderland | 9.1% |
| Villa 2-0 Sunderland | 8.0% |
| Villa 1-2 Sunderland | 6.8% |
| Villa 0-0 Sunderland | 6.5% |
| Villa 0-1 Sunderland | 6.4% |
| Villa 2-2 Sunderland | 5.6% |
| Stat | Villa | Sunderland | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 | 1.18 | 2.83 |
| Corners | 4.9 | 4.2 | 9.0 |
| Shots | 15.2 | 11.0 | 26.2 |
| Shots on target | 4.8 | 3.7 | 8.5 |
| Yellow cards | 1.6 | 2.5 | 4.1 |
| Fouls | 10.8 | 11.8 | 22.6 |
| Tackles | 12.8 | 14.7 | 27.5 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 93.5% | 6.5% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 78.0% | 22.0% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 15.7% | 84.3% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 29.9% | 70.1% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 20.1% | 79.9% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 12.7% | 87.3% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 94.0% | 6.0% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 87.0% | 13.0% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 76.1% | 23.9% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 23.2% | 76.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 23.3% | 76.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 12.3% | 87.7% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 26.3% | 73.7% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 15.1% | 84.9% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 98.7% | 1.3% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 96.4% | 3.6% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 91.5% | 8.5% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 83.1% | 16.9% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 71.1% | 28.9% |
Our model makes Villa favourites in Villa v Sunderland on Saturday 21 November, with a 48% chance of a home win, 25% for the draw and 27% for Sunderland, from projected goals of 1.65 for Villa and 1.18 for Sunderland.
The most likely score in Villa v Sunderland is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 at 9% and 1-0 at 9%, from our model's projection of 1.65 goals for Villa and 1.18 for Sunderland, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 57% of the outcomes our model gives Villa v Sunderland, making yes the likelier answer, with Villa keeping a clean sheet 31% of the time and Sunderland 19%, from projected goals of 1.65 and 1.18.
Our model projects 2.83 goals in Villa v Sunderland, with over 2.5 goals at 54% and over 3.5 at 31%, and two goals the likeliest total at 24%.
Our model expects 9.0 corners in Villa v Sunderland on Saturday 21 November, 4.9 for Villa and 4.2 for Sunderland, putting over 8.5 corners at 55% and over 9.5 at 42%.
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards in Villa v Sunderland on Saturday 21 November, 1.6 for Villa and 2.5 for Sunderland, putting over 3.5 cards at 59% and over 4.5 at 39%.
The Villa v Sunderland simulation turns our projections of 1.65 goals for Villa and 1.18 for Sunderland into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.