Updated 15 November 2026.
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | Villa win | 9.5% |
| 1-0 | Villa win | 9.1% |
| 2-0 | Villa win | 8.0% |
| 1-2 | Sunderland win | 6.8% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 6.5% |
| 0-1 | Sunderland win | 6.4% |
| 2-2 | Draw | 5.6% |
| 3-1 | Villa win | 5.2% |
| 3-0 | Villa win | 4.4% |
| Market | Chance |
|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Villa clean sheet | 31% |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 19% |
The most likely score in Villa vs Sunderland is 1-1, a 12% chance in the Statz model, ahead of 2-1 at 9%. The Premier League game kicks off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 November 2026, and the projection refreshes as the team news lands.
The Statz model projects Villa 1.65 - 1.18 Sunderland in goals for Villa vs Sunderland, with over 2.5 goals 54% likely and both teams to score 57%.
Statz projects 22 players for Villa vs Sunderland on Saturday 21 November 2026, across 9 markets from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes. The projections cover the XI the Lineups tab shows, and refresh as the team news lands before the 15:00 UK time kick-off.
Villa host Sunderland at Villa Park, Birmingham on 21 November 2026 at 15:00 in the Premier League. Villa's last five results: W L D L D (1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses). Sunderland's last five: D W L L W (2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses). In their last 2 meetings, Villa have won 1, Sunderland 0, with 1 draw.
Villa vs Sunderland kicks off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 November 2026 in the Premier League, at Villa Park, Birmingham. Villa Park holds 42,640 people. The confirmed lineups replace the predicted XIs on this page about an hour before kick-off, and the live score and match stats follow from 15:00.
Villa vs Sunderland is being played at Villa Park in Birmingham on Saturday 21 November 2026, the home ground of Villa, which holds 42,640 people. Kick-off is at 15:00 UK time, and the match is part of the Premier League.
Villa have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 games, scoring 10 and conceding 8, with results reading D W W D D from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 4-4 draw away to Man Utd in the Premier League on 8 November.
Sunderland have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 2 and conceding 7, with results reading L L D L W from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 1-0 win at home to Chelsea in the Premier League on 8 November.
Across the last 2 meetings Villa have won 1, Sunderland have won 0 and 1 was drawn, with Villa scoring 5 goals to Sunderland's 4. The most recent was Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland on 19 April 2026 in the Premier League.
Nicolas Jackson leads Villa with 6 goals across their last 10 games, 0.6 a game, the most of any Villa player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Villa player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Brian Brobbey leads Sunderland with 17 shots across their last 10 games, 1.7 a game, the most of any Sunderland player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Sunderland player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Statz predicts Villa vs Sunderland with 11 starters a side: Villa line up 4-2-3-1 and Sunderland 4-2-3-1, ahead of the 15:00 UK time kick-off on Saturday 21 November 2026. The predicted XIs are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Villa the favourite with a 48% chance of winning, against 27% for Sunderland and 26% for the draw. Projected goals are Villa 1.7 - 1.2 Sunderland.
The most likely score in Villa vs Sunderland is 1-1, a draw, at 12%, from Statz's projection model. Both teams to score is 57% likely and over 2.5 goals 54%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz projects 9 player markets for Villa vs Sunderland, from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes, for every starter on the Projections tab of this page. The Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365, and the match projection gives each side's chance of winning.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | Premier League | Aston Villa vs Sunderland | 4-3 |
| 21 Sep 2025 | Premier League | Sunderland vs Aston Villa | 1-1 |
Statz's projection model expects Villa 1.7 - 1.2 Sunderland in goals. It gives Villa a 48% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sunderland 27%. Both teams to score is 57% likely, over 1.5 goals 78% and over 2.5 goals 54%. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%), 2-0 (8%), 1-2 (7%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 12% |
| 2-1 | Villa win | 9% |
| 1-0 | Villa win | 9% |
| 2-0 | Villa win | 8% |
| 1-2 | Sunderland win | 7% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Villa vs Sunderland, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Villa | Fouls committed | Sunderland | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B. Kamara | 20 | B. Brobbey | 13 |
| 2 | M. Cash | 16 | T. Hume | 11 |
| 3 | J. McGinn | 10 | R. Mandava | 10 |
| 4 | J. Gomes | 8 | D. Ballard | 10 |
| 5 | Alysson | 8 | N. Angulo | 9 |
| # | Villa | Shots | Sunderland | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N. Jackson | 23 | B. Brobbey | 17 |
| 2 | J. Manzambi | 18 | E. Fée | 17 |
| 3 | E. Buendía | 15 | W. Isidor | 10 |
| 4 | R. Barkley | 11 | N. Mukiele | 9 |
| 5 | J. McGinn | 9 | N. Angulo | 8 |
| # | Villa | Shots on target | Sunderland | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N. Jackson | 10 | B. Brobbey | 7 |
| 2 | J. Manzambi | 5 | E. Fée | 5 |
| 3 | J. McGinn | 4 | N. Angulo | 4 |
| 4 | R. Barkley | 3 | M. Fofana | 4 |
| 5 | Alysson | 3 | T. Meunier | 4 |
| # | Villa | Goals | Sunderland | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N. Jackson | 6 | E. Fée | 3 |
| 2 | J. McGinn | 2 | B. Brobbey | 3 |
| 3 | Alysson | 2 | W. Isidor | 1 |
| 4 | J. Manzambi | 2 | N. Angulo | 1 |
| 5 | L. Goretzka | 1 |
| # | Villa | Yellow cards | Sunderland | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | M. Cash | 5 | B. Brobbey | 2 |
| 2 | E. Buendía | 2 | N. Angulo | 2 |
| 3 | J. Gomes | 2 | L. O'Nien | 2 |
| 4 | Alysson | 2 | O. Alderete | 2 |
| 5 | N. Jackson | 2 | R. Mandava | 2 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Villa vs Sunderland: Enzo Le Fée 1+ shots (100% hit rate at 1.25); Nicolas Jackson 1+ shots on target (80% hit rate at 1.25); Leon Goretzka 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.33). Combined odds 2.08 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.6 | 7 of 20 |
| Goals against | 1.7 | 16 of 20 |
| Shots | 11.9 | 16 of 20 |
| Shots on target | 3.3 | 18 of 20 |
| Fouls | 11.1 | 12 of 20 |
| Tackles | 18.1 | 3 of 20 |
| Passes | 402.3 | 13 of 20 |
| Corners | 3.4 | 18 of 20 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 0.9 | 20 of 20 |
| Goals against | 1.7 | 15 of 20 |
| Shots | 12.2 | 13 of 20 |
| Shots on target | 3.6 | 14 of 20 |
| Fouls | 11.6 | 10 of 20 |
| Tackles | 15 | 14 of 20 |
| Passes | 394.1 | 14 of 20 |
| Corners | 4 | 15 of 20 |