Win, draw and score chances for Liverpool v Man Utd, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 51.9% |
| Draw | 23.4% |
| Man Utd win | 24.7% |
| Liverpool or draw (1X) | 75.3% |
| Man Utd or draw (X2) | 48.1% |
| Liverpool or Man Utd (12) | 76.6% |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 28.6% |
| Man Utd clean sheet | 15.1% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Liverpool 1-1 Man Utd | 10.7% |
| Liverpool 2-1 Man Utd | 9.7% |
| Liverpool 2-0 Man Utd | 7.7% |
| Liverpool 1-0 Man Utd | 7.7% |
| Liverpool 1-2 Man Utd | 6.4% |
| Liverpool 3-1 Man Utd | 6.1% |
| Liverpool 2-2 Man Utd | 6.1% |
| Liverpool 0-1 Man Utd | 4.9% |
| Stat | Liverpool | Man Utd | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.89 | 1.25 | 3.14 |
| Corners | 5.1 | 4.7 | 9.8 |
| Shots | 16.7 | 12.6 | 29.3 |
| Shots on target | 5.2 | 3.9 | 9.1 |
| Yellow cards | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3.4 |
| Fouls | 10.8 | 9.8 | 20.6 |
| Tackles | 13.1 | 14.7 | 27.9 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 95.2% | 4.8% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 82.7% | 17.4% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 21.0% | 79.1% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 76.2% | 23.8% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 51.8% | 48.3% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 28.1% | 71.9% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 19.0% | 81.0% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 98.3% | 1.8% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 95.4% | 4.6% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 89.9% | 10.1% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 81.1% | 18.9% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 68.7% | 31.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 25.8% | 74.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 13.1% | 86.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 5.9% | 94.1% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 25.4% | 74.6% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 14.1% | 85.9% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 6.9% | 93.1% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 98.9% | 1.1% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 96.8% | 3.2% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 92.4% | 7.6% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 84.6% | 15.4% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 73.2% | 26.8% |
Our model makes Liverpool favourites in Liverpool v Man Utd on Sunday 22 November, with a 52% chance of a home win, 23% for the draw and 25% for Man Utd, from projected goals of 1.89 for Liverpool and 1.25 for Man Utd.
The most likely score in Liverpool v Man Utd is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 at 10% and 2-0 at 8%, from our model's projection of 1.89 goals for Liverpool and 1.25 for Man Utd, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 61% of the outcomes our model gives Liverpool v Man Utd, making yes the likelier answer, with Liverpool keeping a clean sheet 29% of the time and Man Utd 15%, from projected goals of 1.89 and 1.25.
Our model projects 3.14 goals in Liverpool v Man Utd, with over 2.5 goals at 61% and over 3.5 at 39%, and two and three goals the likeliest totals at 22% each.
Our model expects 9.8 corners in Liverpool v Man Utd on Sunday 22 November, 5.1 for Liverpool and 4.7 for Man Utd, putting over 9.5 corners at 52% and over 10.5 at 39%.
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards in Liverpool v Man Utd on Sunday 22 November, 1.5 for Liverpool and 1.9 for Man Utd, putting over 2.5 cards at 66% and over 3.5 at 44%.
The Liverpool v Man Utd simulation turns our projections of 1.89 goals for Liverpool and 1.25 for Man Utd into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.