Win, draw and score chances for Leeds v Coventry, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Leeds win | 57.0% |
| Draw | 24.4% |
| Coventry win | 18.6% |
| Leeds or draw (1X) | 81.4% |
| Coventry or draw (X2) | 43.0% |
| Leeds or Coventry (12) | 75.6% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% |
| Leeds clean sheet | 40.3% |
| Coventry clean sheet | 17.2% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Leeds 1-0 Coventry | 11.6% |
| Leeds 1-1 Coventry | 11.6% |
| Leeds 2-0 Coventry | 10.8% |
| Leeds 2-1 Coventry | 9.8% |
| Leeds 0-0 Coventry | 7.5% |
| Leeds 3-0 Coventry | 6.3% |
| Leeds 3-1 Coventry | 5.7% |
| Leeds 0-1 Coventry | 5.7% |
| Stat | Leeds | Coventry | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 | 0.91 | 2.67 |
| Corners | 5.5 | 3.8 | 9.3 |
| Shots | 17.1 | 9.5 | 26.6 |
| Shots on target | 5.1 | 3.1 | 8.2 |
| Yellow cards | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| Fouls | 9.9 | 10.3 | 20.2 |
| Tackles | 14.5 | 14.1 | 28.6 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 92.5% | 7.5% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 28.0% | 72.0% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 13.3% | 86.7% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 71.2% | 28.9% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 22.8% | 77.2% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 94.9% | 5.1% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 88.6% | 11.4% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 78.5% | 21.5% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 70.5% | 29.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 20.0% | 80.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 24.1% | 75.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 12.0% | 88.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 5.2% | 94.8% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 22.8% | 77.2% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 12.3% | 87.7% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 5.9% | 94.2% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.2% | 0.8% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 97.6% | 2.4% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 94.0% | 6.0% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 87.4% | 12.6% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 77.2% | 22.8% |
Our model makes Leeds favourites in Leeds v Coventry on Saturday 28 November, with a 57% chance of a home win, 24% for the draw and 19% for Coventry, from projected goals of 1.76 for Leeds and 0.91 for Coventry.
The most likely score in Leeds v Coventry is 1-0 at 12%, ahead of 1-1 at 12% and 2-0 at 11%, from our model's projection of 1.76 goals for Leeds and 0.91 for Coventry, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Leeds v Coventry, at 50% yes and 50% no, with Leeds keeping a clean sheet 40% of the time and Coventry 17%, from projected goals of 1.76 and 0.91.
Our model projects 2.67 goals in Leeds v Coventry, with over 2.5 goals at 50% and over 3.5 at 28%, and two goals the likeliest total at 25%.
Our model expects 9.3 corners in Leeds v Coventry on Saturday 28 November, 5.5 for Leeds and 3.8 for Coventry, putting over 8.5 corners at 58% and over 9.5 at 45%.
Our model expects 3.3 yellow cards in Leeds v Coventry on Saturday 28 November, 1.6 for Leeds and 1.7 for Coventry, putting over 2.5 cards at 64% and over 3.5 at 42%.
The Leeds v Coventry simulation turns our projections of 1.76 goals for Leeds and 0.91 for Coventry into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.