Win, draw and score chances for Finland v San Marino, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Finland win | 93.2% |
| Draw | 5.4% |
| San Marino win | 1.4% |
| Finland or draw (1X) | 98.6% |
| San Marino or draw (X2) | 6.8% |
| Finland or San Marino (12) | 94.6% |
| Both teams to score | 28.4% |
| Finland clean sheet | 70.8% |
| San Marino clean sheet | 2.9% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Finland 3-0 San Marino | 15.2% |
| Finland 4-0 San Marino | 13.5% |
| Finland 2-0 San Marino | 12.8% |
| Finland 5-0 San Marino | 9.6% |
| Finland 1-0 San Marino | 7.2% |
| Finland 6-0 San Marino | 5.6% |
| Finland 3-1 San Marino | 5.2% |
| Finland 4-1 San Marino | 4.7% |
| Stat | Finland | San Marino | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.55 | 0.35 | 3.89 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 3.4 | 8.6 |
| Shots | 18.2 | 5.2 | 23.5 |
| Shots on target | 6.9 | 1.8 | 8.7 |
| Yellow cards | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3.5 |
| Fouls | 12.3 | 12.1 | 24.4 |
| Tackles | 14.4 | 14.7 | 29.1 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 98.0% | 2.0% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 90.0% | 10.0% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 63.2% | 36.9% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 36.5% | 63.6% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 25.2% | 74.8% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 16.3% | 83.7% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 9.9% | 90.1% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 84.9% | 15.1% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 26.0% | 74.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 26.1% | 73.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 68.3% | 31.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 27.8% | 72.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 14.5% | 85.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 6.7% | 93.3% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 84.0% | 16.0% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 25.9% | 74.1% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.1% | 2.0% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 95.0% | 5.0% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 89.1% | 10.9% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 79.8% | 20.2% |
Our model makes Finland favourites in Finland v San Marino on Sunday 15 November, with a 93% chance of a home win, 5% for the draw and 2% for San Marino, from projected goals of 3.55 for Finland and 0.35 for San Marino.
The most likely score in Finland v San Marino is 3-0 at 15%, ahead of 4-0 at 13% and 2-0 at 13%, from our model's projection of 3.55 goals for Finland and 0.35 for San Marino, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Finland v San Marino, at 28% yes and 72% no, with Finland keeping a clean sheet 71% of the time and San Marino 3%, from projected goals of 3.55 and 0.35.
Our model projects 3.89 goals in Finland v San Marino, with over 3.5 goals at 55% and over 4.5 at 35%, and three and four goals the likeliest totals at 20% each.
Our model expects 8.6 corners in Finland v San Marino on Sunday 15 November, 5.2 for Finland and 3.4 for San Marino, putting over 8.5 corners at 50% and over 9.5 at 36%.
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards in Finland v San Marino on Sunday 15 November, 1.5 for Finland and 2.1 for San Marino, putting over 3.5 cards at 47% and over 4.5 at 28%.
The Finland v San Marino simulation turns our projections of 3.55 goals for Finland and 0.35 for San Marino into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.