Win, draw and score chances for Iceland v Luxembourg, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Iceland win | 67.7% |
| Draw | 20.1% |
| Luxembourg win | 12.2% |
| Iceland or draw (1X) | 87.8% |
| Luxembourg or draw (X2) | 32.3% |
| Iceland or Luxembourg (12) | 79.9% |
| Both teams to score | 43.5% |
| Iceland clean sheet | 49.6% |
| Luxembourg clean sheet | 13.7% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Iceland 1-0 Luxembourg | 13.5% |
| Iceland 2-0 Luxembourg | 13.4% |
| Iceland 1-1 Luxembourg | 9.5% |
| Iceland 2-1 Luxembourg | 9.4% |
| Iceland 3-0 Luxembourg | 8.9% |
| Iceland 0-0 Luxembourg | 6.8% |
| Iceland 3-1 Luxembourg | 6.2% |
| Iceland 0-1 Luxembourg | 4.8% |
| Stat | Iceland | Luxembourg | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.99 | 0.70 | 2.69 |
| Corners | 4.4 | 4.0 | 8.4 |
| Shots | 11.8 | 7.3 | 19.2 |
| Shots on target | 4.6 | 2.6 | 7.3 |
| Yellow cards | 1.9 | 2.4 | 4.3 |
| Fouls | 11.9 | 12.2 | 24.1 |
| Tackles | 14.7 | 12.0 | 26.8 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 93.2% | 6.8% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 28.4% | 71.6% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 13.6% | 86.5% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 60.1% | 40.0% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 14.2% | 85.8% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 8.5% | 91.5% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 36.6% | 63.5% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 21.7% | 78.3% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 11.3% | 88.7% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 5.2% | 94.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 19.7% | 80.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 11.8% | 88.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 80.6% | 19.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 82.7% | 17.3% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 53.9% | 46.2% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 24.1% | 75.9% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 98.2% | 1.8% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 95.2% | 4.8% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 89.1% | 10.9% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 79.4% | 20.7% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
Our model makes Iceland favourites in Iceland v Luxembourg on Monday 16 November, with a 68% chance of a home win, 20% for the draw and 12% for Luxembourg, from projected goals of 1.99 for Iceland and 0.70 for Luxembourg.
The most likely score in Iceland v Luxembourg is 1-0 at 14%, ahead of 2-0 at 13% and 1-1 at 9%, from our model's projection of 1.99 goals for Iceland and 0.70 for Luxembourg, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Iceland v Luxembourg, at 44% yes and 56% no, with Iceland keeping a clean sheet 50% of the time and Luxembourg 14%, from projected goals of 1.99 and 0.70.
Our model projects 2.69 goals in Iceland v Luxembourg, with over 2.5 goals at 50% and over 3.5 at 28%, and two goals the likeliest total at 25%.
Our model expects 8.4 corners in Iceland v Luxembourg on Monday 16 November, 4.4 for Iceland and 4.0 for Luxembourg, putting over 7.5 corners at 60% and over 8.5 at 46%.
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards in Iceland v Luxembourg on Monday 16 November, 1.9 for Iceland and 2.4 for Luxembourg, putting over 3.5 cards at 63% and over 4.5 at 44%.
The Iceland v Luxembourg simulation turns our projections of 1.99 goals for Iceland and 0.70 for Luxembourg into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.