Win, draw and score chances for Northern Ireland v Ukraine, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Northern Ireland win | 41.1% |
| Draw | 30.2% |
| Ukraine win | 28.7% |
| Northern Ireland or draw (1X) | 71.3% |
| Ukraine or draw (X2) | 58.9% |
| Northern Ireland or Ukraine (12) | 69.8% |
| Both teams to score | 40.2% |
| Northern Ireland clean sheet | 40.8% |
| Ukraine clean sheet | 32.1% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Northern Ireland 1-0 Ukraine | 14.9% |
| Northern Ireland 1-1 Ukraine | 13.3% |
| Northern Ireland 0-0 Ukraine | 13.1% |
| Northern Ireland 0-1 Ukraine | 11.7% |
| Northern Ireland 2-0 Ukraine | 8.5% |
| Northern Ireland 2-1 Ukraine | 7.6% |
| Northern Ireland 1-2 Ukraine | 6.0% |
| Northern Ireland 0-2 Ukraine | 5.3% |
| Stat | Northern Ireland | Ukraine | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 | 0.90 | 2.03 |
| Corners | 4.2 | 4.1 | 8.3 |
| Shots | 11.2 | 10.2 | 21.5 |
| Shots on target | 3.9 | 3.3 | 7.3 |
| Yellow cards | 1.9 | 2.1 | 4.0 |
| Fouls | 10.9 | 14.3 | 25.3 |
| Tackles | 13.4 | 14.0 | 27.4 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 86.9% | 13.1% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 33.3% | 66.8% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 14.9% | 85.1% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 5.6% | 94.4% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 21.0% | 79.0% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 13.1% | 86.9% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 7.7% | 92.3% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 24.9% | 75.1% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 13.9% | 86.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 43.9% | 56.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 19.6% | 80.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 11.7% | 88.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 76.7% | 23.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 22.0% | 78.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 11.4% | 88.6% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 87.7% | 12.3% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 76.8% | 23.2% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 46.8% | 53.3% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 98.7% | 1.3% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 96.2% | 3.8% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 91.1% | 8.9% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 70.2% | 29.8% |
Our model makes Northern Ireland favourites in Northern Ireland v Ukraine on Saturday 14 November, with a 41% chance of a home win, 30% for the draw and 29% for Ukraine, from projected goals of 1.14 for Northern Ireland and 0.90 for Ukraine.
The most likely score in Northern Ireland v Ukraine is 1-0 at 15%, ahead of 1-1 at 13% and 0-0 at 13%, from our model's projection of 1.14 goals for Northern Ireland and 0.90 for Ukraine, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Northern Ireland v Ukraine, at 40% yes and 60% no, with Northern Ireland keeping a clean sheet 41% of the time and Ukraine 32%, from projected goals of 1.14 and 0.90.
Our model projects 2.03 goals in Northern Ireland v Ukraine, with over 1.5 goals at 60% and over 2.5 at 33%, and one and two goals the likeliest totals at 27% each.
Our model expects 8.3 corners in Northern Ireland v Ukraine on Saturday 14 November, 4.2 for Northern Ireland and 4.1 for Ukraine, putting over 7.5 corners at 58% and over 8.5 at 44%.
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards in Northern Ireland v Ukraine on Saturday 14 November, 1.9 for Northern Ireland and 2.1 for Ukraine, putting over 3.5 cards at 57% and over 4.5 at 38%.
The Northern Ireland v Ukraine simulation turns our projections of 1.14 goals for Northern Ireland and 0.90 for Ukraine into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.