Win, draw and score chances for Ukraine v Georgia, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 13 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ukraine win | 40.1% |
| Draw | 26.4% |
| Georgia win | 33.5% |
| Ukraine or draw (1X) | 66.5% |
| Georgia or draw (X2) | 59.9% |
| Ukraine or Georgia (12) | 73.6% |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% |
| Ukraine clean sheet | 29.5% |
| Georgia clean sheet | 25.6% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ukraine 1-1 Georgia | 12.6% |
| Ukraine 1-0 Georgia | 10.3% |
| Ukraine 0-1 Georgia | 9.2% |
| Ukraine 2-1 Georgia | 8.6% |
| Ukraine 1-2 Georgia | 7.7% |
| Ukraine 0-0 Georgia | 7.5% |
| Ukraine 2-0 Georgia | 7.0% |
| Ukraine 0-2 Georgia | 5.6% |
| Stat | Ukraine | Georgia | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 | 1.22 | 2.59 |
| Corners | 4.6 | 4.3 | 8.9 |
| Shots | 10.3 | 9.6 | 19.9 |
| Shots on target | 3.8 | 3.4 | 7.2 |
| Yellow cards | 2.2 | 1.7 | 3.9 |
| Fouls | 11.5 | 9.8 | 21.3 |
| Tackles | 16.5 | 13.2 | 29.7 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 92.5% | 7.5% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 26.1% | 73.9% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 12.1% | 88.0% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 53.0% | 47.1% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 28.1% | 71.9% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 18.6% | 81.4% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 11.6% | 88.4% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 61.0% | 39.1% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 27.1% | 72.9% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 15.1% | 84.9% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 7.4% | 92.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 57.4% | 42.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 18.6% | 81.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 11.0% | 89.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 20.3% | 79.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 10.3% | 89.7% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 17.8% | 82.2% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 9.3% | 90.8% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.6% | 0.5% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.5% | 1.5% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 96.1% | 3.9% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 91.2% | 8.9% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 83.0% | 17.0% |
Our model makes Ukraine favourites in Ukraine v Georgia on Tuesday 17 November, with a 40% chance of a home win, 26% for the draw and 34% for Georgia, from projected goals of 1.36 for Ukraine and 1.22 for Georgia.
The most likely score in Ukraine v Georgia is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 at 10% and 0-1 at 9%, from our model's projection of 1.36 goals for Ukraine and 1.22 for Georgia, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 53% of the outcomes our model gives Ukraine v Georgia, making yes the likelier answer, with Ukraine keeping a clean sheet 29% of the time and Georgia 26%, from projected goals of 1.36 and 1.22.
Our model projects 2.59 goals in Ukraine v Georgia, with over 2.5 goals at 48% and over 3.5 at 26%, and two goals the likeliest total at 25%.
Our model expects 8.9 corners in Ukraine v Georgia on Tuesday 17 November, 4.6 for Ukraine and 4.3 for Georgia, putting over 8.5 corners at 53% and over 9.5 at 40%.
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards in Ukraine v Georgia on Tuesday 17 November, 2.2 for Ukraine and 1.7 for Georgia, putting over 3.5 cards at 55% and over 4.5 at 36%.
The Ukraine v Georgia simulation turns our projections of 1.36 goals for Ukraine and 1.22 for Georgia into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.