Win, draw and score chances for France v Turkey, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 15 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| France win | 76.5% |
| Draw | 14.4% |
| Turkey win | 9.1% |
| France or draw (1X) | 90.9% |
| Turkey or draw (X2) | 23.5% |
| France or Turkey (12) | 85.6% |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% |
| France clean sheet | 43.7% |
| Turkey clean sheet | 6.9% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| France 2-0 Turkey | 10.8% |
| France 3-0 Turkey | 9.6% |
| France 2-1 Turkey | 8.9% |
| France 1-0 Turkey | 8.1% |
| France 3-1 Turkey | 8.0% |
| France 1-1 Turkey | 6.7% |
| France 4-0 Turkey | 6.4% |
| France 4-1 Turkey | 5.3% |
| Stat | France | Turkey | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.68 | 0.83 | 3.50 |
| Corners | 5.9 | 3.9 | 9.9 |
| Shots | 19.6 | 9.3 | 28.9 |
| Shots on target | 7.4 | 3.2 | 10.5 |
| Yellow cards | 1.6 | 2.3 | 3.8 |
| Fouls | 11.6 | 11.0 | 22.6 |
| Tackles | 14.9 | 16.9 | 31.8 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 97.0% | 3.0% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 86.5% | 13.5% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 19.8% | 80.2% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 98.0% | 2.0% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 94.8% | 5.2% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 88.8% | 11.2% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 79.3% | 20.7% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 89.8% | 10.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 82.2% | 17.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 73.8% | 26.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 19.0% | 81.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 9.5% | 90.5% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 73.3% | 26.7% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 40.8% | 59.3% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 26.0% | 74.0% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 14.9% | 85.1% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.9% | 0.2% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 98.3% | 1.7% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 95.7% | 4.4% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 90.7% | 9.3% |
Our model makes France favourites in France v Turkey on Sunday 15 November, with a 77% chance of a home win, 14% for the draw and 9% for Turkey, from projected goals of 2.68 for France and 0.83 for Turkey.
The most likely score in France v Turkey is 2-0 at 11%, ahead of 3-0 at 10% and 2-1 at 9%, from our model's projection of 2.68 goals for France and 0.83 for Turkey, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 52% of the outcomes our model gives France v Turkey, making yes the likelier answer, with France keeping a clean sheet 44% of the time and Turkey 7%, from projected goals of 2.68 and 0.83.
Our model projects 3.50 goals in France v Turkey, with over 2.5 goals at 68% and over 3.5 at 46%, and three goals the likeliest total at 22%.
Our model expects 9.9 corners in France v Turkey on Sunday 15 November, 5.9 for France and 3.9 for Turkey, putting over 9.5 corners at 53% and over 10.5 at 40%.
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards in France v Turkey on Sunday 15 November, 1.6 for France and 2.3 for Turkey, putting over 3.5 cards at 53% and over 4.5 at 34%.
The France v Turkey simulation turns our projections of 2.68 goals for France and 0.83 for Turkey into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.