Win, draw and score chances for Spain v England, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Spain win | 56.5% |
| Draw | 23.6% |
| England win | 19.9% |
| Spain or draw (1X) | 80.1% |
| England or draw (X2) | 43.5% |
| Spain or England (12) | 76.4% |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% |
| Spain clean sheet | 39.6% |
| England clean sheet | 17.6% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Spain 1-0 England | 12.1% |
| Spain 1-1 England | 11.2% |
| Spain 2-0 England | 10.5% |
| Spain 2-1 England | 9.7% |
| Spain 0-0 England | 7.0% |
| Spain 0-1 England | 6.5% |
| Spain 3-0 England | 6.1% |
| Spain 3-1 England | 5.7% |
| Stat | Spain | England | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.74 | 0.93 | 2.66 |
| Corners | 5.4 | 4.0 | 9.4 |
| Shots | 15.2 | 9.8 | 25.1 |
| Shots on target | 5.7 | 3.8 | 9.5 |
| Yellow cards | 1.4 | 1.9 | 3.4 |
| Fouls | 12.6 | 10.8 | 23.3 |
| Tackles | 14.6 | 13.9 | 28.6 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 93.0% | 7.0% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 27.8% | 72.2% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 13.2% | 86.8% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 24.0% | 76.0% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 15.7% | 84.3% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 91.0% | 9.0% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 81.8% | 18.3% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 68.7% | 31.3% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 83.3% | 16.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 35.2% | 64.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 12.6% | 87.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 5.6% | 94.4% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 19.0% | 81.0% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.2% | 0.8% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 97.6% | 2.4% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 94.0% | 6.0% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 87.4% | 12.6% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 77.3% | 22.7% |
Our model makes Spain favourites in Spain v England on Sunday 15 November, with a 56% chance of a home win, 24% for the draw and 20% for England, from projected goals of 1.74 for Spain and 0.93 for England.
The most likely score in Spain v England is 1-0 at 12%, ahead of 1-1 at 11% and 2-0 at 11%, from our model's projection of 1.74 goals for Spain and 0.93 for England, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Spain v England, at 50% yes and 50% no, with Spain keeping a clean sheet 40% of the time and England 18%, from projected goals of 1.74 and 0.93.
Our model projects 2.66 goals in Spain v England, with over 2.5 goals at 50% and over 3.5 at 28%, and two goals the likeliest total at 25%.
Our model expects 9.4 corners in Spain v England on Sunday 15 November, 5.4 for Spain and 4.0 for England, putting over 8.5 corners at 60% and over 9.5 at 47%.
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards in Spain v England on Sunday 15 November, 1.4 for Spain and 1.9 for England, putting over 2.5 cards at 65% and over 3.5 at 43%.
The Spain v England simulation turns our projections of 1.74 goals for Spain and 0.93 for England into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.