Win, draw and score chances for Germany v Netherlands, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 15 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Germany win | 53.6% |
| Draw | 21.9% |
| Netherlands win | 24.5% |
| Germany or draw (1X) | 75.5% |
| Netherlands or draw (X2) | 46.4% |
| Germany or Netherlands (12) | 78.1% |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% |
| Germany clean sheet | 28.2% |
| Netherlands clean sheet | 14.0% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Germany 1-1 Netherlands | 9.8% |
| Germany 2-1 Netherlands | 9.7% |
| Germany 1-0 Netherlands | 7.8% |
| Germany 2-0 Netherlands | 7.6% |
| Germany 3-1 Netherlands | 6.3% |
| Germany 1-2 Netherlands | 6.2% |
| Germany 2-2 Netherlands | 6.1% |
| Germany 0-1 Netherlands | 5.0% |
| Stat | Germany | Netherlands | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.96 | 1.27 | 3.23 |
| Corners | 5.6 | 4.3 | 9.9 |
| Shots | 17.1 | 12.2 | 29.3 |
| Shots on target | 6.0 | 4.7 | 10.7 |
| Yellow cards | 1.8 | 1.8 | 3.6 |
| Fouls | 12.2 | 10.9 | 23.1 |
| Tackles | 14.5 | 15.1 | 29.6 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 96.1% | 4.0% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 83.3% | 16.7% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 62.7% | 37.4% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 28.6% | 71.4% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 19.4% | 80.6% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 98.2% | 1.8% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 95.3% | 4.7% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 89.8% | 10.2% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 80.9% | 19.2% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 90.9% | 9.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 74.2% | 25.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 69.8% | 30.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 15.7% | 84.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 7.4% | 92.6% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 18.0% | 82.0% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.5% | 0.5% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.5% | 1.5% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 96.0% | 4.1% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 90.9% | 9.1% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 82.7% | 17.4% |
Our model makes Germany favourites in Germany v Netherlands on Monday 16 November, with a 54% chance of a home win, 22% for the draw and 24% for Netherlands, from projected goals of 1.96 for Germany and 1.27 for Netherlands.
The most likely score in Germany v Netherlands is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 at 10% and 1-0 at 8%, from our model's projection of 1.96 goals for Germany and 1.27 for Netherlands, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 62% of the outcomes our model gives Germany v Netherlands, making yes the likelier answer, with Germany keeping a clean sheet 28% of the time and Netherlands 14%, from projected goals of 1.96 and 1.27.
Our model projects 3.23 goals in Germany v Netherlands, with over 2.5 goals at 63% and over 3.5 at 40%, and three goals the likeliest total at 22%.
Our model expects 9.9 corners in Germany v Netherlands on Monday 16 November, 5.6 for Germany and 4.3 for Netherlands, putting over 9.5 corners at 52% and over 10.5 at 40%.
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards in Germany v Netherlands on Monday 16 November, 1.8 for Germany and 1.8 for Netherlands, putting over 3.5 cards at 49% and over 4.5 at 29%.
The Germany v Netherlands simulation turns our projections of 1.96 goals for Germany and 1.27 for Netherlands into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.