Win, draw and score chances for Greece v Serbia, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Greece win | 63.5% |
| Draw | 21.5% |
| Serbia win | 15.1% |
| Greece or draw (1X) | 84.9% |
| Serbia or draw (X2) | 36.5% |
| Greece or Serbia (12) | 78.6% |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% |
| Greece clean sheet | 44.9% |
| Serbia clean sheet | 14.8% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Greece 1-0 Serbia | 12.7% |
| Greece 2-0 Serbia | 12.1% |
| Greece 1-1 Serbia | 10.2% |
| Greece 2-1 Serbia | 9.7% |
| Greece 3-0 Serbia | 7.7% |
| Greece 0-0 Serbia | 6.7% |
| Greece 3-1 Serbia | 6.2% |
| Greece 0-1 Serbia | 5.3% |
| Stat | Greece | Serbia | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.91 | 0.80 | 2.71 |
| Corners | 4.6 | 4.4 | 9.0 |
| Shots | 12.8 | 8.1 | 20.9 |
| Shots on target | 4.7 | 2.8 | 7.5 |
| Yellow cards | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3.5 |
| Fouls | 10.6 | 10.9 | 21.5 |
| Tackles | 14.0 | 13.9 | 27.8 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 93.4% | 6.7% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 28.8% | 71.2% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 13.9% | 86.1% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 29.3% | 70.7% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 19.6% | 80.4% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 12.4% | 87.7% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 20.9% | 79.1% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 11.2% | 88.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 33.6% | 66.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 22.2% | 77.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 13.7% | 86.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 26.6% | 73.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 13.7% | 86.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 6.2% | 93.8% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 19.2% | 80.8% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 10.2% | 89.8% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 98.9% | 1.1% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 96.8% | 3.2% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 92.3% | 7.7% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 84.5% | 15.5% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 73.0% | 27.0% |
Our model makes Greece favourites in Greece v Serbia on Monday 16 November, with a 64% chance of a home win, 21% for the draw and 15% for Serbia, from projected goals of 1.91 for Greece and 0.80 for Serbia.
The most likely score in Greece v Serbia is 1-0 at 13%, ahead of 2-0 at 12% and 1-1 at 10%, from our model's projection of 1.91 goals for Greece and 0.80 for Serbia, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Greece v Serbia, at 47% yes and 53% no, with Greece keeping a clean sheet 45% of the time and Serbia 15%, from projected goals of 1.91 and 0.80.
Our model projects 2.71 goals in Greece v Serbia, with over 2.5 goals at 51% and over 3.5 at 29%, and two goals the likeliest total at 24%.
Our model expects 9.0 corners in Greece v Serbia on Monday 16 November, 4.6 for Greece and 4.4 for Serbia, putting over 8.5 corners at 54% and over 9.5 at 41%.
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards in Greece v Serbia on Monday 16 November, 1.8 for Greece and 1.7 for Serbia, putting over 2.5 cards at 67% and over 3.5 at 45%.
The Greece v Serbia simulation turns our projections of 1.91 goals for Greece and 0.80 for Serbia into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.