Win, draw and score chances for Wales v Portugal, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 13 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Wales win | 16.9% |
| Draw | 21.0% |
| Portugal win | 62.1% |
| Wales or draw (1X) | 37.9% |
| Portugal or draw (X2) | 83.1% |
| Wales or Portugal (12) | 79.0% |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% |
| Wales clean sheet | 13.5% |
| Portugal clean sheet | 39.2% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Wales 0-2 Portugal | 10.6% |
| Wales 0-1 Portugal | 10.6% |
| Wales 1-2 Portugal | 9.9% |
| Wales 1-1 Portugal | 9.9% |
| Wales 0-3 Portugal | 7.1% |
| Wales 1-3 Portugal | 6.6% |
| Wales 0-0 Portugal | 5.3% |
| Wales 1-0 Portugal | 5.0% |
| Stat | Wales | Portugal | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.94 | 2.00 | 2.94 |
| Corners | 4.2 | 5.7 | 9.9 |
| Shots | 8.5 | 15.1 | 23.6 |
| Shots on target | 3.2 | 5.2 | 8.4 |
| Yellow cards | 1.7 | 1.8 | 3.5 |
| Fouls | 10.2 | 10.1 | 20.3 |
| Tackles | 13.9 | 12.6 | 26.6 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 94.7% | 5.3% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 79.1% | 20.9% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 17.4% | 82.6% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 77.3% | 22.7% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 20.2% | 79.8% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 85.5% | 14.5% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 73.3% | 26.7% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 26.9% | 73.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 33.6% | 66.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 22.7% | 77.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 28.1% | 71.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 14.7% | 85.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 6.8% | 93.2% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 23.0% | 77.0% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 12.4% | 87.6% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 5.9% | 94.1% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 98.1% | 2.0% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 94.7% | 5.3% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 88.3% | 11.7% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 64.5% | 35.5% |
Our model makes Portugal favourites in Wales v Portugal on Tuesday 17 November, with a 62% chance of an away win, 21% for the draw and 17% for Wales, from projected goals of 2.00 for Portugal and 0.94 for Wales.
The most likely score in Wales v Portugal is 0-2 at 11%, ahead of 0-1 at 11% and 1-2 at 10%, from our model's projection of 0.94 goals for Wales and 2.00 for Portugal, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 53% of the outcomes our model gives Wales v Portugal, making yes the likelier answer, with Wales keeping a clean sheet 14% of the time and Portugal 39%, from projected goals of 0.94 and 2.00.
Our model projects 2.94 goals in Wales v Portugal, with over 2.5 goals at 56% and over 3.5 at 34%, and two goals the likeliest total at 23%.
Our model expects 9.9 corners in Wales v Portugal on Tuesday 17 November, 4.2 for Wales and 5.7 for Portugal, putting over 9.5 corners at 53% and over 10.5 at 41%.
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards in Wales v Portugal on Tuesday 17 November, 1.7 for Wales and 1.8 for Portugal, putting over 3.5 cards at 47% and over 4.5 at 28%.
The Wales v Portugal simulation turns our projections of 0.94 goals for Wales and 2.00 for Portugal into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.