Updated 15 November 2026.
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Portugal win | 10.6% |
| 0-2 | Portugal win | 10.3% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 10.2% |
| 1-2 | Portugal win | 9.9% |
| 0-3 | Portugal win | 6.7% |
| 1-3 | Portugal win | 6.5% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 5.4% |
| 1-0 | Wales win | 5.2% |
| 2-1 | Wales win | 4.9% |
| 2-2 | Draw | 4.8% |
| Market | Chance |
|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% |
| Wales clean sheet | 14% |
| Portugal clean sheet | 38% |
The most likely score in Wales vs Portugal is 0-1, a 11% chance in the Statz model, ahead of 0-2 at 10%. The UEFA Nations League game kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 17 November 2026, and the projection refreshes as the team news lands.
The Statz model projects Wales 0.96 - 1.95 Portugal in goals for Wales vs Portugal, with over 2.5 goals 56% likely and both teams to score 53%.
Statz projects 22 players for Wales vs Portugal on Tuesday 17 November 2026, across 9 markets from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes. The projections cover the XI the Lineups tab shows, and refresh as the team news lands before the 19:45 UK time kick-off.
Wales host Portugal at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff on 17 November 2026 at 19:45 in the UEFA Nations League. Wales's last five results: L L W L L (1 win and 4 losses). Portugal's last five: W W W W L (4 wins and 1 loss). In their last 1 meetings, Wales have won 0, Portugal 1, with 0 draws.
Wales vs Portugal kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 17 November 2026 in the UEFA Nations League, at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff. Cardiff City Stadium holds 33,280 people. The confirmed lineups replace the predicted XIs on this page about an hour before kick-off, and the live score and match stats follow from 19:45.
Wales vs Portugal is being played at Cardiff City Stadium in Cardiff on Tuesday 17 November 2026, the home ground of Wales, which holds 33,280 people. Kick-off is at 19:45 UK time, and the match is part of the UEFA Nations League.
Wales have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 3 and conceding 8, with results reading L L W L L from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 1-3 defeat away to Norway in the UEFA Nations League on 14 November.
Portugal have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 10 and conceding 8, with results reading W W W W L from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 1-4 defeat at home to Denmark in the UEFA Nations League on 14 November.
Across the last 1 meetings Wales have won 0, Portugal have won 1 and 0 were drawn, with Wales scoring 0 goals to Portugal's 1. The most recent was Portugal 1-0 Wales on 24 September 2026 in the UEFA Nations League.
Ethan Ampadu leads Wales with 15 fouls committed across their last 10 games, 1.5 a game, the most of any Wales player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Wales player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Gonçalo Ramos leads Portugal with 4 goals across their last 10 games, 0.4 a game, the most of any Portugal player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Portugal player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Until the team news for Wales vs Portugal is in, the Lineups tab shows the XI each side last started with: Wales's XI from their 1-3 defeat at Norway on Sat 14 Nov 2026, and Portugal's XI from their 1-4 defeat v Denmark at home on Sat 14 Nov 2026. Predicted lineups replace them once the team news is in, and the confirmed XIs about an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Portugal the favourite with a 60% chance of winning, against 18% for Wales and 22% for the draw. Projected goals are Wales 1.0 - 2.0 Portugal.
The most likely score in Wales vs Portugal is 0-1, a Portugal win, at 11%, from Statz's projection model. Both teams to score is 53% likely and over 2.5 goals 56%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz projects 9 player markets for Wales vs Portugal, from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes, for every starter on the Projections tab of this page. The Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365, and the match projection gives each side's chance of winning.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | UEFA Nations League | Portugal vs Wales | 1-0 |
Statz's projection model expects Wales 1.0 - 2.0 Portugal in goals. It gives Wales a 18% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Portugal 60%. Both teams to score is 53% likely, over 1.5 goals 79% and over 2.5 goals 56%. The most likely scorelines are 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (7%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Portugal win | 11% |
| 0-2 | Portugal win | 10% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 10% |
| 1-2 | Portugal win | 10% |
| 0-3 | Portugal win | 7% |
Predicted lineups for Wales vs Portugal are not in yet, so these are the XIs each side last started with: Wales's XI from their 1-3 defeat at Norway on Sat 14 Nov 2026, and Portugal's XI from their 1-4 defeat v Denmark at home on Sat 14 Nov 2026.
| # | Wales | Fouls committed | Portugal | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Ampadu | 15 | R. Veiga | 15 |
| 2 | N. Williams | 12 | R. Dias | 12 |
| 3 | L. Koumas | 11 | J. Cancelo | 12 |
| 4 | L. Cullen | 8 | P. Neto | 12 |
| 5 | D. Brooks | 5 | Vitinha | 9 |
| # | Wales | Shots | Portugal | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D. James | 19 | C. Ronaldo | 25 |
| 2 | H. Wilson | 14 | J. Félix | 16 |
| 3 | D. Brooks | 13 | B. Fernandes | 14 |
| 4 | B. Johnson | 11 | G. Ramos | 13 |
| 5 | N. Williams | 10 | Vitinha | 13 |
| # | Wales | Shots on target | Portugal | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D. James | 8 | C. Ronaldo | 11 |
| 2 | L. Koumas | 6 | G. Ramos | 7 |
| 3 | D. Brooks | 5 | B. Fernandes | 6 |
| 4 | N. Williams | 4 | J. Félix | 6 |
| 5 | H. Wilson | 4 | Vitinha | 5 |
| # | Wales | Goals | Portugal | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D. Brooks | 3 | G. Ramos | 4 |
| 2 | H. Wilson | 3 | C. Ronaldo | 3 |
| 3 | D. James | 3 | J. Félix | 3 |
| 4 | B. Johnson | 1 | J. Cancelo | 2 |
| 5 | N. Broadhead | 1 | R. Leão | 1 |
| # | Wales | Yellow cards | Portugal | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L. Cullen | 2 | R. Dias | 3 |
| 2 | E. Ampadu | 2 | B. Silva | 3 |
| 3 | B. Cabango | 2 | R. Veiga | 3 |
| 4 | S. Thomas | 2 | J. Palhinha | 2 |
| 5 | H. Wilson | 1 | J. Cancelo | 2 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Wales vs Portugal: Rúben Neves 1+ shots (100% hit rate at 1.29); Francisco Trincão 2+ shots (100% hit rate at 1.29); Rodrigo Mora 1+ shots on target (80% hit rate at 1.44). Combined odds 2.4 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 0.6 | 46 of 54 |
| Goals against | 1.6 | 39 of 54 |
| Shots | 9 | 47 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 3.2 | 44 of 54 |
| Fouls | 11.6 | 30 of 54 |
| Tackles | 11.2 | 52 of 54 |
| Passes | 466.8 | 27 of 54 |
| Corners | 2.8 | 47 of 54 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2 | 16 of 54 |
| Goals against | 1.6 | 38 of 54 |
| Shots | 17.8 | 8 of 54 |
| Shots on target | 6.8 | 4 of 54 |
| Fouls | 12.6 | 22 of 54 |
| Tackles | 11 | 53 of 54 |
| Passes | 481 | 26 of 54 |
| Corners | 6.2 | 6 of 54 |