Win, draw and score chances for São Paulo v Fluminense, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| São Paulo win | 42.8% |
| Draw | 28.3% |
| Fluminense win | 28.9% |
| São Paulo or draw (1X) | 71.1% |
| Fluminense or draw (X2) | 57.2% |
| São Paulo or Fluminense (12) | 71.7% |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% |
| São Paulo clean sheet | 31.0% |
| Fluminense clean sheet | 23.0% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| São Paulo 1-1 Fluminense | 13.5% |
| São Paulo 1-0 Fluminense | 9.3% |
| São Paulo 2-1 Fluminense | 9.0% |
| São Paulo 0-0 Fluminense | 8.4% |
| São Paulo 2-0 Fluminense | 7.7% |
| São Paulo 1-2 Fluminense | 7.2% |
| São Paulo 0-1 Fluminense | 7.1% |
| São Paulo 2-2 Fluminense | 5.3% |
| Stat | São Paulo | Fluminense | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 | 1.17 | 2.64 |
| Corners | 6.1 | 4.3 | 10.4 |
| Shots | 15.7 | 12.0 | 27.6 |
| Shots on target | 5.1 | 4.0 | 9.1 |
| Yellow cards | 2.3 | 2.4 | 4.7 |
| Fouls | 14.0 | 14.3 | 28.3 |
| Tackles | 15.6 | 15.0 | 30.6 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 91.7% | 8.4% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 27.3% | 72.7% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 12.9% | 87.2% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 81.1% | 18.9% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 24.5% | 75.6% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 96.5% | 3.5% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 91.8% | 8.3% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 83.5% | 16.5% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 71.7% | 28.3% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 68.7% | 31.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 30.6% | 69.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 84.4% | 15.6% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 68.4% | 31.6% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 19.0% | 81.0% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 95.7% | 4.3% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 90.3% | 9.7% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 81.4% | 18.6% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 54.6% | 45.5% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.7% | 0.3% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 99.0% | 1.0% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 97.3% | 2.8% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 93.5% | 6.5% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 86.9% | 13.2% |
Our model makes São Paulo favourites in São Paulo v Fluminense on Friday 20 November, with a 43% chance of a home win, 28% for the draw and 29% for Fluminense, from projected goals of 1.47 for São Paulo and 1.17 for Fluminense.
The most likely score in São Paulo v Fluminense is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 at 9% and 2-1 at 9%, from our model's projection of 1.47 goals for São Paulo and 1.17 for Fluminense, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 54% of the outcomes our model gives São Paulo v Fluminense, making yes the likelier answer, with São Paulo keeping a clean sheet 31% of the time and Fluminense 23%, from projected goals of 1.47 and 1.17.
Our model projects 2.64 goals in São Paulo v Fluminense, with over 2.5 goals at 49% and over 3.5 at 27%, and two goals the likeliest total at 26%.
Our model expects 10.4 corners in São Paulo v Fluminense on Friday 20 November, 6.1 for São Paulo and 4.3 for Fluminense, putting over 9.5 corners at 59% and over 10.5 at 46%.
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards in São Paulo v Fluminense on Friday 20 November, 2.3 for São Paulo and 2.4 for Fluminense, putting over 4.5 cards at 50% and over 5.5 at 32%.
The São Paulo v Fluminense simulation turns our projections of 1.47 goals for São Paulo and 1.17 for Fluminense into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.