Updated 15 November 2026.
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | São Paulo win | 9.3% |
| 2-1 | São Paulo win | 9.0% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 8.4% |
| 2-0 | São Paulo win | 7.7% |
| 1-2 | Fluminense win | 7.2% |
| 0-1 | Fluminense win | 7.1% |
| 2-2 | Draw | 5.3% |
| 0-2 | Fluminense win | 4.9% |
| 3-1 | São Paulo win | 4.4% |
| Market | Chance |
|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| São Paulo clean sheet | 31% |
| Fluminense clean sheet | 23% |
The most likely score in São Paulo vs Fluminense is 1-1, a 14% chance in the Statz model, ahead of 1-0 at 9%. The Campeonato Brasileiro game kicks off at 00:30 UK time on Friday 20 November 2026, and the projection refreshes as the team news lands.
The Statz model projects São Paulo 1.47 - 1.17 Fluminense in goals for São Paulo vs Fluminense, with over 2.5 goals 49% likely and both teams to score 54%.
Statz projects 22 players for São Paulo vs Fluminense on Friday 20 November 2026, across 9 markets from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes. The projections cover the XI the Lineups tab shows, and refresh as the team news lands before the 00:30 UK time kick-off.
São Paulo host Fluminense at Estádio Nicolau Alayon, São Paulo on 20 November 2026 at 00:30 in the Campeonato Brasileiro. São Paulo's last five results: W W D L D (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss). Fluminense's last five: L W L W W (3 wins and 2 losses). In their last 6 meetings, São Paulo have won 2, Fluminense 4, with 0 draws.
São Paulo vs Fluminense kicks off at 00:30 UK time on Friday 20 November 2026 in the Campeonato Brasileiro, at Estádio Nicolau Alayon, São Paulo. Estádio Nicolau Alayon holds 66,795 people. The confirmed lineups replace the predicted XIs on this page about an hour before kick-off, and the live score and match stats follow from 00:30.
São Paulo vs Fluminense is being played at Estádio Nicolau Alayon in São Paulo on Friday 20 November 2026, the home ground of São Paulo, which holds 66,795 people. Kick-off is at 00:30 UK time, and the match is part of the Campeonato Brasileiro.
São Paulo have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 games, scoring 6 and conceding 5, with results reading W W D L D from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 0-0 draw at home to Corinthians in the Campeonato Brasileiro on 5 November.
Fluminense have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 7 and conceding 6, with results reading L L L W W from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 3-0 win away to Vitória in the Campeonato Brasileiro on 6 November.
Across the last 6 meetings São Paulo have won 2, Fluminense have won 4 and 0 were drawn, with São Paulo scoring 6 goals to Fluminense's 13. The most recent was Fluminense 2-1 São Paulo on 16 May 2026 in the Campeonato Brasileiro.
Artur leads São Paulo with 10 shots on target across their last 10 games, 1.0 a game, the most of any São Paulo player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every São Paulo player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Jefferson Savarino leads Fluminense with 4 goals across their last 10 games, 0.4 a game, the most of any Fluminense player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Fluminense player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Lucas Casagrande is the referee for São Paulo vs Fluminense in the Campeonato Brasileiro on Friday 20 November 2026. Their record this season appears on the referee card once they have taken charge of a game.
Statz predicts São Paulo vs Fluminense with 11 starters a side: São Paulo line up 3-4-2-1 and Fluminense 4-2-3-1, ahead of the 00:30 UK time kick-off on Friday 20 November 2026. The predicted XIs are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes São Paulo the favourite with a 43% chance of winning, against 29% for Fluminense and 28% for the draw. Projected goals are São Paulo 1.5 - 1.2 Fluminense.
The most likely score in São Paulo vs Fluminense is 1-1, a draw, at 14%, from Statz's projection model. Both teams to score is 54% likely and over 2.5 goals 49%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz projects 9 player markets for São Paulo vs Fluminense, from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes, for every starter on the Projections tab of this page. The Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365, and the match projection gives each side's chance of winning.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Campeonato Brasileiro | Fluminense vs São Paulo | 2-1 |
| 27 Nov 2025 | Campeonato Brasileiro | Fluminense vs São Paulo | 6-0 |
| 27 Jul 2025 | Campeonato Brasileiro | São Paulo vs Fluminense | 3-1 |
| 1 Sep 2024 | Campeonato Brasileiro | Fluminense vs São Paulo | 2-0 |
| 13 May 2024 | Campeonato Brasileiro | São Paulo vs Fluminense | 2-1 |
| 23 Nov 2023 | Campeonato Brasileiro | Fluminense vs São Paulo | 1-0 |
Statz's projection model expects São Paulo 1.5 - 1.2 Fluminense in goals. It gives São Paulo a 43% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Fluminense 29%. Both teams to score is 54% likely, over 1.5 goals 75% and over 2.5 goals 49%. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 0-0 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 14% |
| 1-0 | São Paulo win | 9% |
| 2-1 | São Paulo win | 9% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 8% |
| 2-0 | São Paulo win | 8% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for São Paulo vs Fluminense, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | São Paulo | Fouls committed | Fluminense | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P. Lima | 15 | Nonato | 21 |
| 2 | P. Maia | 13 | Ignácio | 13 |
| 3 | Iago | 12 | Renê | 12 |
| 4 | Djhordney | 12 | A. Canobbio | 11 |
| 5 | Newton | 10 | Guga | 9 |
| # | São Paulo | Shots | Fluminense | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Artur | 21 | Hulk | 23 |
| 2 | Luciano | 20 | J. Savarino | 14 |
| 3 | P. Lima | 14 | A. Canobbio | 14 |
| 4 | J. Calleri | 10 | R. Castillo | 11 |
| 5 | G. Santana | 10 | L. Acosta | 11 |
| # | São Paulo | Shots on target | Fluminense | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Artur | 10 | Hulk | 10 |
| 2 | Luciano | 5 | J. Savarino | 8 |
| 3 | P. Lima | 4 | A. Canobbio | 6 |
| 4 | L. Moura | 4 | R. Castillo | 6 |
| 5 | J. Calleri | 3 | L. Acosta | 6 |
| # | São Paulo | Goals | Fluminense | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Calleri | 3 | J. Savarino | 4 |
| 2 | Luciano | 2 | R. Castillo | 3 |
| 3 | L. Moura | 1 | L. Acosta | 3 |
| 4 | D. Bobadilla | 1 | Hulk | 3 |
| 5 | P. Lima | 1 | A. Canobbio | 2 |
| # | São Paulo | Yellow cards | Fluminense | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Djhordney | 4 | Ignácio | 3 |
| 2 | Iago | 3 | A. Canobbio | 3 |
| 3 | Luciano | 2 | G. Arana | 2 |
| 4 | Sabino | 2 | Nonato | 2 |
| 5 | G. Santana | 2 | Renê | 1 |
Statz's bet builder picks for São Paulo vs Fluminense: Artur 1+ shots on target (100% hit rate at 1.62); Agustín Canobbio 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.25); Iago 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.62). Combined odds 3.28 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.2 | 16 of 20 |
| Goals against | 1.1 | 5 of 20 |
| Shots | 13.7 | 12 of 20 |
| Shots on target | 4.2 | 15 of 20 |
| Fouls | 13.9 | 3 of 20 |
| Tackles | 16.5 | 3 of 20 |
| Passes | 457.8 | 3 of 20 |
| Corners | 6.9 | 1 of 20 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.7 | 3 of 20 |
| Goals against | 1.2 | 8 of 20 |
| Shots | 14.7 | 7 of 20 |
| Shots on target | 5.6 | 2 of 20 |
| Fouls | 13.1 | 9 of 20 |
| Tackles | 14.8 | 13 of 20 |
| Passes | 551.5 | 2 of 20 |
| Corners | 5.4 | 9 of 20 |