Win, draw and score chances for Mirassol v Atlético-MG, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mirassol win | 39.5% |
| Draw | 28.6% |
| Atlético-MG win | 31.9% |
| Mirassol or draw (1X) | 68.1% |
| Atlético-MG or draw (X2) | 60.5% |
| Mirassol or Atlético-MG (12) | 71.4% |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% |
| Mirassol clean sheet | 29.0% |
| Atlético-MG clean sheet | 24.7% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mirassol 1-1 Atlético-MG | 13.6% |
| Mirassol 1-0 Atlético-MG | 8.8% |
| Mirassol 2-1 Atlético-MG | 8.7% |
| Mirassol 0-0 Atlético-MG | 8.4% |
| Mirassol 1-2 Atlético-MG | 7.7% |
| Mirassol 0-1 Atlético-MG | 7.6% |
| Mirassol 2-0 Atlético-MG | 7.0% |
| Mirassol 0-2 Atlético-MG | 5.5% |
| Stat | Mirassol | Atlético-MG | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 | 1.24 | 2.64 |
| Corners | 5.9 | 4.4 | 10.3 |
| Shots | 16.9 | 12.9 | 29.8 |
| Shots on target | 5.4 | 4.3 | 9.7 |
| Yellow cards | 2.2 | 2.2 | 4.4 |
| Fouls | 13.4 | 12.0 | 25.3 |
| Tackles | 14.4 | 13.8 | 28.3 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 91.6% | 8.4% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 27.2% | 72.8% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 12.8% | 87.2% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 69.6% | 30.5% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 23.4% | 76.6% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 98.6% | 1.4% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 96.2% | 3.8% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 91.4% | 8.6% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 83.4% | 16.6% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 84.8% | 15.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 81.5% | 18.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 28.1% | 71.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 15.7% | 84.3% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 87.8% | 12.2% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 62.9% | 37.1% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.1% | 0.9% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 97.3% | 2.7% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 93.3% | 6.7% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 86.2% | 13.8% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 75.5% | 24.5% |
Our model makes Mirassol favourites in Mirassol v Atlético-MG on Saturday 14 November, with a 39% chance of a home win, 29% for the draw and 32% for Atlético-MG, from projected goals of 1.40 for Mirassol and 1.24 for Atlético-MG.
The most likely score in Mirassol v Atlético-MG is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 at 9% and 2-1 at 9%, from our model's projection of 1.40 goals for Mirassol and 1.24 for Atlético-MG, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 55% of the outcomes our model gives Mirassol v Atlético-MG, making yes the likelier answer, with Mirassol keeping a clean sheet 29% of the time and Atlético-MG 25%, from projected goals of 1.40 and 1.24.
Our model projects 2.64 goals in Mirassol v Atlético-MG, with over 2.5 goals at 49% and over 3.5 at 27%, and two goals the likeliest total at 26%.
Our model expects 10.3 corners in Mirassol v Atlético-MG on Saturday 14 November, 5.9 for Mirassol and 4.4 for Atlético-MG, putting over 9.5 corners at 57% and over 10.5 at 45%.
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards in Mirassol v Atlético-MG on Saturday 14 November, 2.2 for Mirassol and 2.2 for Atlético-MG, putting over 3.5 cards at 64% and over 4.5 at 45%.
The Mirassol v Atlético-MG simulation turns our projections of 1.40 goals for Mirassol and 1.24 for Atlético-MG into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.