Win, draw and score chances for Cruzeiro v Palmeiras, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Cruzeiro win | 33.4% |
| Draw | 28.0% |
| Palmeiras win | 38.6% |
| Cruzeiro or draw (1X) | 61.4% |
| Palmeiras or draw (X2) | 66.6% |
| Cruzeiro or Palmeiras (12) | 72.0% |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% |
| Cruzeiro clean sheet | 24.1% |
| Palmeiras clean sheet | 27.1% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Cruzeiro 1-1 Palmeiras | 13.3% |
| Cruzeiro 1-2 Palmeiras | 8.6% |
| Cruzeiro 0-1 Palmeiras | 8.1% |
| Cruzeiro 2-1 Palmeiras | 7.9% |
| Cruzeiro 0-0 Palmeiras | 7.7% |
| Cruzeiro 1-0 Palmeiras | 7.3% |
| Cruzeiro 0-2 Palmeiras | 6.6% |
| Cruzeiro 2-2 Palmeiras | 5.6% |
| Stat | Cruzeiro | Palmeiras | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 | 1.42 | 2.73 |
| Corners | 6.0 | 4.7 | 10.8 |
| Shots | 15.8 | 14.0 | 29.8 |
| Shots on target | 5.2 | 4.9 | 10.1 |
| Yellow cards | 2.5 | 2.6 | 5.1 |
| Fouls | 12.8 | 14.3 | 27.1 |
| Tackles | 15.0 | 14.0 | 29.0 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 92.3% | 7.7% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 14.2% | 85.9% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 84.0% | 16.0% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 28.4% | 71.6% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 98.6% | 1.4% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 96.2% | 3.8% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 91.4% | 8.6% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 83.4% | 16.7% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 87.5% | 12.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 78.8% | 21.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 88.5% | 11.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 40.5% | 59.6% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 93.3% | 6.7% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 86.0% | 14.1% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 74.9% | 25.2% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 60.8% | 39.3% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.0% | 2.0% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 94.8% | 5.2% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 88.9% | 11.1% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 79.4% | 20.6% |
Our model makes Palmeiras favourites in Cruzeiro v Palmeiras on Wednesday 18 November, with a 39% chance of an away win, 28% for the draw and 33% for Cruzeiro, from projected goals of 1.42 for Palmeiras and 1.31 for Cruzeiro.
The most likely score in Cruzeiro v Palmeiras is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-2 at 9% and 0-1 at 8%, from our model's projection of 1.31 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.42 for Palmeiras, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 57% of the outcomes our model gives Cruzeiro v Palmeiras, making yes the likelier answer, with Cruzeiro keeping a clean sheet 24% of the time and Palmeiras 27%, from projected goals of 1.31 and 1.42.
Our model projects 2.73 goals in Cruzeiro v Palmeiras, with over 2.5 goals at 51% and over 3.5 at 29%, and two goals the likeliest total at 26%.
Our model expects 10.8 corners in Cruzeiro v Palmeiras on Wednesday 18 November, 6.0 for Cruzeiro and 4.7 for Palmeiras, putting over 10.5 corners at 51% and over 11.5 at 39%.
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards in Cruzeiro v Palmeiras on Wednesday 18 November, 2.5 for Cruzeiro and 2.6 for Palmeiras, putting over 4.5 cards at 58% and over 5.5 at 40%.
The Cruzeiro v Palmeiras simulation turns our projections of 1.31 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.42 for Palmeiras into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.