Win, draw and score chances for Grêmio v Bahia, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Grêmio win | 36.9% |
| Draw | 27.8% |
| Bahia win | 35.3% |
| Grêmio or draw (1X) | 64.8% |
| Bahia or draw (X2) | 63.1% |
| Grêmio or Bahia (12) | 72.2% |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% |
| Grêmio clean sheet | 25.5% |
| Bahia clean sheet | 24.5% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Grêmio 1-1 Bahia | 13.2% |
| Grêmio 2-1 Bahia | 8.4% |
| Grêmio 1-2 Bahia | 8.2% |
| Grêmio 1-0 Bahia | 7.6% |
| Grêmio 0-0 Bahia | 7.5% |
| Grêmio 0-1 Bahia | 7.4% |
| Grêmio 2-0 Bahia | 6.2% |
| Grêmio 0-2 Bahia | 5.9% |
| Stat | Grêmio | Bahia | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 | 1.37 | 2.77 |
| Corners | 5.9 | 5.0 | 10.9 |
| Shots | 16.2 | 14.5 | 30.7 |
| Shots on target | 5.6 | 4.5 | 10.1 |
| Yellow cards | 2.4 | 2.6 | 5.1 |
| Fouls | 12.5 | 13.5 | 26.0 |
| Tackles | 14.8 | 14.7 | 29.5 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 92.6% | 7.5% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 77.6% | 22.4% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 84.7% | 15.3% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 99.1% | 1.0% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 97.3% | 2.7% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 93.6% | 6.4% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 87.0% | 13.0% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 87.5% | 12.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 78.7% | 21.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 88.0% | 12.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 74.3% | 25.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 24.6% | 75.4% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 90.4% | 9.7% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 81.0% | 19.0% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.5% | 0.5% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.4% | 1.6% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 95.7% | 4.3% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 90.5% | 9.5% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 82.0% | 18.0% |
Our model makes Grêmio favourites in Grêmio v Bahia on Thursday 19 November, with a 37% chance of a home win, 28% for the draw and 35% for Bahia, from projected goals of 1.40 for Grêmio and 1.37 for Bahia.
The most likely score in Grêmio v Bahia is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 2-1 at 8% and 1-2 at 8%, from our model's projection of 1.40 goals for Grêmio and 1.37 for Bahia, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 57% of the outcomes our model gives Grêmio v Bahia, making yes the likelier answer, with Grêmio keeping a clean sheet 25% of the time and Bahia 25%, from projected goals of 1.40 and 1.37.
Our model projects 2.77 goals in Grêmio v Bahia, with over 2.5 goals at 52% and over 3.5 at 30%, and two goals the likeliest total at 25%.
Our model expects 10.9 corners in Grêmio v Bahia on Thursday 19 November, 5.9 for Grêmio and 5.0 for Bahia, putting over 10.5 corners at 52% and over 11.5 at 40%.
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards in Grêmio v Bahia on Thursday 19 November, 2.4 for Grêmio and 2.6 for Bahia, putting over 4.5 cards at 57% and over 5.5 at 39%.
The Grêmio v Bahia simulation turns our projections of 1.40 goals for Grêmio and 1.37 for Bahia into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.