Updated 15 November 2026.
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 13.2% |
| 2-1 | Grêmio win | 8.4% |
| 1-2 | Bahia win | 8.2% |
| 1-0 | Grêmio win | 7.6% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 7.5% |
| 0-1 | Bahia win | 7.4% |
| 2-0 | Grêmio win | 6.2% |
| 0-2 | Bahia win | 5.9% |
| 2-2 | Draw | 5.8% |
| 3-1 | Grêmio win | 4.0% |
| Market | Chance |
|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Grêmio clean sheet | 25% |
| Bahia clean sheet | 25% |
The most likely score in Grêmio vs Bahia is 1-1, a 13% chance in the Statz model, ahead of 2-1 at 8%. The Campeonato Brasileiro game kicks off at 00:30 UK time on Thursday 19 November 2026, and the projection refreshes as the team news lands.
The Statz model projects Grêmio 1.40 - 1.37 Bahia in goals for Grêmio vs Bahia, with over 2.5 goals 52% likely and both teams to score 57%.
Statz projects 22 players for Grêmio vs Bahia on Thursday 19 November 2026, across 9 markets from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes. The projections cover the XI the Lineups tab shows, and refresh as the team news lands before the 00:30 UK time kick-off.
Grêmio host Bahia at Arena do Grêmio, Rio on 19 November 2026 at 00:30 in the Campeonato Brasileiro. Grêmio's last five results: D L W W L (2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses). Bahia's last five: W L D W L (2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses). In their last 6 meetings, Grêmio have won 2, Bahia 3, with 1 draw.
Grêmio vs Bahia kicks off at 00:30 UK time on Thursday 19 November 2026 in the Campeonato Brasileiro, at Arena do Grêmio, Rio. Arena do Grêmio holds 60,540 people. The confirmed lineups replace the predicted XIs on this page about an hour before kick-off, and the live score and match stats follow from 00:30.
Grêmio vs Bahia is being played at Arena do Grêmio in Rio on Thursday 19 November 2026, the home ground of Grêmio, which holds 60,540 people. Kick-off is at 00:30 UK time, and the match is part of the Campeonato Brasileiro.
Grêmio have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 7 and conceding 8, with results reading D L W W L from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 1-3 defeat away to Flamengo in the Campeonato Brasileiro on 4 November.
Bahia have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 games, scoring 7 and conceding 9, with results reading W L D W L from oldest to newest. Their last game was a 2-3 defeat away to Cruzeiro in the Campeonato Brasileiro on 6 November.
Across the last 6 meetings Grêmio have won 2, Bahia have won 3 and 1 was drawn, with Grêmio scoring 3 goals to Bahia's 8. The most recent was Bahia 1-1 Grêmio on 17 May 2026 in the Campeonato Brasileiro.
Erick Noriega leads Grêmio with 21 fouls committed across their last 10 games, 2.1 a game, the most of any Grêmio player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Grêmio player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Erick Pulga leads Bahia with 4 goals across their last 10 games, 0.4 a game, the most of any Bahia player in that run. The Stats tab of this page ranks every Bahia player on shots, fouls, cards and tackles over the same games.
Davi de Oliveira Lacerda is the referee for Grêmio vs Bahia in the Campeonato Brasileiro on Thursday 19 November 2026. Their record this season appears on the referee card once they have taken charge of a game.
Statz predicts Grêmio vs Bahia with 11 starters a side: Grêmio line up 3-4-3 and Bahia 4-3-3, ahead of the 00:30 UK time kick-off on Thursday 19 November 2026. The predicted XIs are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Grêmio the favourite with a 37% chance of winning, against 35% for Bahia and 28% for the draw. Projected goals are Grêmio 1.4 - 1.4 Bahia.
The most likely score in Grêmio vs Bahia is 1-1, a draw, at 13%, from Statz's projection model. Both teams to score is 57% likely and over 2.5 goals 52%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz projects 9 player markets for Grêmio vs Bahia, from goals and shots to fouls, cards, tackles and passes, for every starter on the Projections tab of this page. The Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365, and the match projection gives each side's chance of winning.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bahia vs Grêmio | 1-1 |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bahia vs Grêmio | 4-0 |
| 25 May 2025 | Campeonato Brasileiro | Grêmio vs Bahia | 1-0 |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Campeonato Brasileiro | Grêmio vs Bahia | 0-2 |
| 28 Apr 2024 | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bahia vs Grêmio | 1-0 |
| 4 Nov 2023 | Campeonato Brasileiro | Grêmio vs Bahia | 1-0 |
Statz's projection model expects Grêmio 1.4 - 1.4 Bahia in goals. It gives Grêmio a 37% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Bahia 35%. Both teams to score is 57% likely, over 1.5 goals 78% and over 2.5 goals 52%. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 1-0 (8%), 0-0 (7%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Draw | 13% |
| 2-1 | Grêmio win | 8% |
| 1-2 | Bahia win | 8% |
| 1-0 | Grêmio win | 8% |
| 0-0 | Draw | 7% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Grêmio vs Bahia, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Grêmio | Fouls committed | Bahia | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Noriega | 21 | N. Acevedo | 17 |
| 2 | M. Villasanti | 16 | R. Nestor | 13 |
| 3 | Wallace | 15 | J. Lucas | 13 |
| 4 | W. Kannemann | 14 | A. Veliz | 13 |
| 5 | C. Vinícius | 9 | D. Duarte | 10 |
| # | Grêmio | Shots | Bahia | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F. Amuzu | 16 | A. Veliz | 23 |
| 2 | C. Vinícius | 16 | E. Pulga | 23 |
| 3 | C. Pavón | 12 | C. Olivera | 17 |
| 4 | J. Enamorado | 10 | R. Nestor | 13 |
| 5 | F. Krovinovic | 9 | L. Juba | 11 |
| # | Grêmio | Shots on target | Bahia | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C. Pavón | 7 | A. Veliz | 7 |
| 2 | F. Amuzu | 5 | C. Olivera | 7 |
| 3 | C. Vinícius | 5 | E. Pulga | 7 |
| 4 | M. Braithwaite | 4 | R. Nestor | 5 |
| 5 | D. Caito | 4 | L. Juba | 5 |
| # | Grêmio | Goals | Bahia | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F. Amuzu | 1 | E. Pulga | 4 |
| 2 | F. Balbuena | 1 | L. Juba | 4 |
| 3 | Marlon | 1 | A. Veliz | 2 |
| 4 | M. Braithwaite | 1 | Erick | 2 |
| 5 | C. Pavón | 1 | C. Olivera | 1 |
| # | Grêmio | Yellow cards | Bahia | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | M. Villasanti | 3 | N. Acevedo | 5 |
| 2 | E. Noriega | 3 | J. Lucas | 3 |
| 3 | P. Gabriel | 3 | C. Olivera | 3 |
| 4 | W. Kannemann | 2 | D. Duarte | 2 |
| 5 | C. Vinícius | 2 | R. Gómez | 2 |
Statz's bet builder picks for Grêmio vs Bahia: Francis Amuzu 1+ shots on target (80% hit rate at 1.53); Luciano Juba 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.13); Wallace 1+ shots (80% hit rate at 1.67). Combined odds 2.94 at bet365.
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.3 | 12 of 20 |
| Goals against | 1.4 | 12 of 20 |
| Shots | 11.9 | 18 of 20 |
| Shots on target | 3.8 | 18 of 20 |
| Fouls | 12.9 | 13 of 20 |
| Tackles | 14 | 16 of 20 |
| Passes | 420.4 | 12 of 20 |
| Corners | 4.5 | 17 of 20 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.6 | 6 of 20 |
| Goals against | 1.3 | 10 of 20 |
| Shots | 14.2 | 8 of 20 |
| Shots on target | 4.6 | 10 of 20 |
| Fouls | 13.9 | 2 of 20 |
| Tackles | 15.8 | 6 of 20 |
| Passes | 436.9 | 9 of 20 |
| Corners | 5.7 | 6 of 20 |