No, Universitario have taken 11 points over their last 10 Copa Libertadores games, within 0.36 of the 11.36 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Universitario create 0.77 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 10 Copa Libertadores games, 7.71 in all, and have scored 8 goals from those chances, 0.29 more than that xG would expect.
Universitario allow 1.08 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 10 Copa Libertadores games, 10.76 in all, and have conceded 9 goals from those chances, 1.76 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Universitario's results and their chances agree, within 0.4 points of xPts over 10 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 10 | 7.71 | 8 | +0.29 | 10.76 | 9 | +1.76 | 11.36 | 11 | -0.36 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.02 | 5 | +0.98 | 5.15 | 6 | -0.85 | 5.97 | 5 | -0.97 |
| Home | 6 | 5.72 | 6 | +0.28 | 6.55 | 6 | +0.55 | 7.42 | 8 | +0.58 |
| Away | 4 | 1.99 | 2 | +0.01 | 4.21 | 3 | +1.21 | 3.94 | 3 | -0.94 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May | Copa Libertadores | Deportes Tolima (H) | 0-0 | 0.67 | 0.24 | 1.71 | 1 | D |
| 20 May | Copa Libertadores | Nacional (A) | 0-0 | 0.62 | 0.40 | 1.50 | 1 | D |
| 8 May | Copa Libertadores | Coquimbo Unido (A) | 2-1 | 0.64 | 1.48 | 0.74 | 0 | L |
| 30 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Nacional (H) | 4-2 | 1.66 | 1.61 | 1.41 | 3 | W |
| 15 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Coquimbo Unido (H) | 0-2 | 0.43 | 1.42 | 0.61 | 0 | L |
| 8 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Deportes Tolima (A) | 0-0 | 0.47 | 0.31 | 1.42 | 1 | D |
| 28 May | Copa Libertadores | River Plate (A) | 1-1 | 0.26 | 2.02 | 0.28 | 1 | L |
| 15 May | Copa Libertadores | Barcelona Guayaquil (H) | 1-0 | 1.60 | 1.45 | 1.48 | 3 | W |
| 9 May | Copa Libertadores | Independiente del Valle (H) | 1-1 | 0.98 | 1.07 | 1.28 | 1 | L |
| 3 Apr | Copa Libertadores | River Plate (H) | 0-1 | 0.38 | 0.76 | 0.93 | 0 | D |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álex Valera | attacker | 10 | 759 | 0.00 | 3 | +3.00 | 0.00 |
| José Carabalí | defender | 10 | 850 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Jairo Concha | midfielder | 10 | 813 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Caín Fara | defender | 6 | 540 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Lisandro Alzugaray | attacker | 4 | 182 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Rivadavia | 6 | 8.9 | 15 | 5.4 | 6 | 9.8 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 6 | 7.9 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 9.8 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteño | 6 | 5.3 | 6 | 7.2 | 2 | 7.3 | 13 | +5.7 |
| 4 | Universidad Católica | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 7.4 | 13 | +5.6 |
| 5 | UCV | 6 | 6.2 | 7 | 12.8 | 11 | 5.1 | 9 | +3.9 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 6 | 7.1 | 8 | 6.5 | 5 | 8.7 | 12 | +3.3 |
| 7 | Rosario Central | 6 | 10.4 | 9 | 6.1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | +2 |
| 8 | Mirassol | 6 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | +2 |
| 9 | Santa Fe | 6 | 4.1 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| 10 | Nacional | 6 | 4.8 | 7 | 7.9 | 9 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| 11 | Platense | 6 | 4.9 | 8 | 3.9 | 7 | 8.7 | 10 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Lanús | 6 | 6.3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8.4 | 9 | +0.6 |
| 13 | Independiente del Valle | 6 | 12.6 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12.5 | 13 | +0.5 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 6 | 7.6 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10.6 | 11 | +0.4 |
| 15 | Independiente Medellín | 6 | 4.3 | 6 | 7.1 | 11 | 6.8 | 7 | +0.2 |
| 16 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 6.4 | 7 | 5.7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -0 |
| 17 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 6 | 3.1 | 2 | 12.2 | 12 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 |
| 18 | Coquimbo Unido | 6 | 8.2 | 8 | 4.9 | 6 | 10.7 | 10 | -0.7 |
| 19 | Estudiantes | 6 | 8 | 6 | 5.1 | 5 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 20 | Cruzeiro | 6 | 10.8 | 8 | 5.3 | 3 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 21 | Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | 3.6 | 6 | 10.6 | 13 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| 22 | Palmeiras | 6 | 12.2 | 10 | 5.8 | 5 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 23 | Universitario | 6 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 | 7.4 | 6 | -1.4 |
| 24 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 7.3 | 6 | 8.7 | 9 | 7.7 | 6 | -1.7 |
| 25 | Junior FC | 6 | 6.1 | 5 | 9.2 | 11 | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 |
| 26 | Fluminense | 6 | 7.4 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 10.7 | 8 | -2.7 |
| 27 | Always Ready | 6 | 6.7 | 7 | 10.7 | 9 | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 |
| 28 | Club Bolívar | 6 | 6.4 | 6 | 7.3 | 8 | 8.1 | 5 | -3.1 |
| 29 | Peñarol | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7.7 | 8 | 6.4 | 3 | -3.4 |
| 30 | Boca Juniors | 6 | 9 | 6 | 4.3 | 5 | 10.9 | 7 | -3.9 |
| 31 | Cusco FC | 6 | 4.9 | 4 | 7.9 | 12 | 6 | 1 | -5 |
| 32 | Libertad | 6 | 5.4 | 4 | 10.8 | 13 | 5.1 | 0 | -5.1 |