Yes, UCV have taken 9 points over their last 6 Copa Libertadores games, 3.96 more than the 5.04 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
UCV create 1.03 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 6 Copa Libertadores games, 6.18 in all, and have scored 7 goals from those chances, 0.82 more than that xG would expect.
UCV allow 2.13 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 6 Copa Libertadores games, 12.75 in all, and have conceded 11 goals from those chances, 1.75 fewer than that xGA would expect.
UCV have taken 4.0 points more than their chances warranted over 6 games: +0.8 goals against their xG, and +1.8 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 6 | 6.18 | 7 | +0.82 | 12.75 | 11 | +1.75 | 5.04 | 9 | +3.96 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.34 | 4 | -0.34 | 11.51 | 10 | +1.51 | 3.27 | 6 | +2.73 |
| Home | 3 | 3.23 | 5 | +1.77 | 5.51 | 4 | +1.51 | 2.80 | 6 | +3.20 |
| Away | 3 | 2.95 | 2 | -0.95 | 7.24 | 7 | +0.24 | 2.24 | 3 | +0.76 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May | Copa Libertadores | Libertad (A) | 0-1 | 1.71 | 1.10 | 1.78 | 3 | W |
| 19 May | Copa Libertadores | Rosario Central (A) | 4-0 | 0.28 | 2.35 | 0.22 | 0 | L |
| 6 May | Copa Libertadores | Independiente del Valle (H) | 2-0 | 0.50 | 2.24 | 0.36 | 3 | L |
| 29 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Rosario Central (H) | 0-3 | 0.89 | 2.03 | 0.67 | 0 | L |
| 16 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Independiente del Valle (A) | 3-1 | 0.96 | 3.79 | 0.24 | 0 | L |
| 9 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Libertad (H) | 3-1 | 1.84 | 1.24 | 1.77 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Manuel Cuesta | midfielder | 6 | 527 | 0.00 | 3 | +3.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Camilo Zapata | attacker | 6 | 495 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Francisco Solé | midfielder | 6 | 508 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Jovanny BolÃvar | attacker | 5 | 437 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Rivadavia | 6 | 8.9 | 15 | 5.4 | 6 | 9.8 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 6 | 7.9 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 9.8 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteño | 6 | 5.3 | 6 | 7.2 | 2 | 7.3 | 13 | +5.7 |
| 4 | Universidad Católica | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 7.4 | 13 | +5.6 |
| 5 | UCV | 6 | 6.2 | 7 | 12.8 | 11 | 5.1 | 9 | +3.9 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 6 | 7.1 | 8 | 6.5 | 5 | 8.7 | 12 | +3.3 |
| 7 | Rosario Central | 6 | 10.4 | 9 | 6.1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | +2 |
| 8 | Mirassol | 6 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | +2 |
| 9 | Santa Fe | 6 | 4.1 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| 10 | Nacional | 6 | 4.8 | 7 | 7.9 | 9 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| 11 | Platense | 6 | 4.9 | 8 | 3.9 | 7 | 8.7 | 10 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Lanús | 6 | 6.3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8.4 | 9 | +0.6 |
| 13 | Independiente del Valle | 6 | 12.6 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12.5 | 13 | +0.5 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 6 | 7.6 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10.6 | 11 | +0.4 |
| 15 | Independiente MedellÃn | 6 | 4.3 | 6 | 7.1 | 11 | 6.8 | 7 | +0.2 |
| 16 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 6.4 | 7 | 5.7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -0 |
| 17 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 6 | 3.1 | 2 | 12.2 | 12 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 |
| 18 | Coquimbo Unido | 6 | 8.2 | 8 | 4.9 | 6 | 10.7 | 10 | -0.7 |
| 19 | Estudiantes | 6 | 8 | 6 | 5.1 | 5 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 20 | Cruzeiro | 6 | 10.8 | 8 | 5.3 | 3 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 21 | Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | 3.6 | 6 | 10.6 | 13 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| 22 | Palmeiras | 6 | 12.2 | 10 | 5.8 | 5 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 23 | Universitario | 6 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 | 7.4 | 6 | -1.4 |
| 24 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 7.3 | 6 | 8.7 | 9 | 7.7 | 6 | -1.7 |
| 25 | Junior FC | 6 | 6.1 | 5 | 9.2 | 11 | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 |
| 26 | Fluminense | 6 | 7.4 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 10.7 | 8 | -2.7 |
| 27 | Always Ready | 6 | 6.7 | 7 | 10.7 | 9 | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 |
| 28 | Club BolÃvar | 6 | 6.4 | 6 | 7.3 | 8 | 8.1 | 5 | -3.1 |
| 29 | Peñarol | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7.7 | 8 | 6.4 | 3 | -3.4 |
| 30 | Boca Juniors | 6 | 9 | 6 | 4.3 | 5 | 10.9 | 7 | -3.9 |
| 31 | Cusco FC | 6 | 4.9 | 4 | 7.9 | 12 | 6 | 1 | -5 |
| 32 | Libertad | 6 | 5.4 | 4 | 10.8 | 13 | 5.1 | 0 | -5.1 |