Yes, Turkmenistan have taken 15 points over their last 9 Asian Cup Qualification games, 2.63 more than the 12.37 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Turkmenistan create 1.28 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 9 Asian Cup Qualification games, 11.54 in all, and have scored 14 goals from those chances, 2.46 more than that xG would expect.
Turkmenistan allow 1.30 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 9 Asian Cup Qualification games, 11.68 in all, and have conceded 12 goals from those chances, 0.32 more than that xGA would expect.
Turkmenistan have taken 2.6 points more than their chances warranted over 9 games: +2.5 goals against their xG, and -0.3 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 9 | 9 | 11.54 | 14 | +2.46 | 11.68 | 12 | -0.32 | 12.37 | 15 | +2.63 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.12 | 9 | +2.88 | 5.96 | 6 | -0.04 | 7.11 | 9 | +1.89 |
| Home | 4 | 6.46 | 9 | +2.54 | 4.94 | 6 | -1.06 | 6.62 | 9 | +2.38 |
| Away | 5 | 5.08 | 5 | -0.08 | 6.74 | 6 | +0.74 | 5.75 | 6 | +0.25 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar | Asian Cup Qualification | Thailand (A) | 2-1 | 0.25 | 1.94 | 0.29 | 0 | L |
| 18 Nov | Asian Cup Qualification | Chinese Taipei (H) | 3-1 | 1.61 | 0.35 | 2.31 | 3 | W |
| 14 Oct | Asian Cup Qualification | Sri Lanka (H) | 2-1 | 1.92 | 1.25 | 1.81 | 3 | W |
| 9 Oct | Asian Cup Qualification | Sri Lanka (A) | 1-0 | 0.92 | 0.70 | 1.51 | 0 | W |
| 10 Jun | Asian Cup Qualification | Thailand (H) | 3-1 | 1.42 | 1.72 | 1.19 | 3 | L |
| 25 Mar | Asian Cup Qualification | Chinese Taipei (A) | 1-2 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 1.32 | 3 | D |
| 14 Jun | Asian Cup Qualification | Bahrain (A) | 1-0 | 0.87 | 2.23 | 0.58 | 0 | L |
| 11 Jun | Asian Cup Qualification | Bangladesh (A) | 1-2 | 2.46 | 1.33 | 2.05 | 3 | W |
| 8 Jun | Asian Cup Qualification | Malaysia (H) | 1-3 | 1.51 | 1.62 | 1.31 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elman Tagayev | attacker | 8 | 501 | 0.00 | 3 | +3.00 | 0.00 |
| Altymurad Annadurdyev | attacker | 7 | 386 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Mekan Saparov | defender | 5 | 450 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Arslanmyrat Amanov | attacker | 3 | 175 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Ahmet Atayev | midfielder | 4 | 331 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Yhlas Saparmammedov | defender | 3 | 226 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Resul Çaryýew | goalkeeper | 5 | 450 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Ýazgylyç Gurbanov | attacker | 4 | 218 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Teymur Charyyev | midfielder | 5 | 450 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Singapore | 6 | 7.7 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 8.4 | 14 | +5.6 |
| 2 | Myanmar | 6 | 7.3 | 8 | 8.5 | 11 | 7.4 | 12 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Turkmenistan | 6 | 6.7 | 11 | 6.5 | 7 | 8.4 | 12 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Vietnam | 5 | 11.8 | 14 | 2.4 | 2 | 12.2 | 15 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Brunei Darussalam | 7 | 2.3 | 4 | 16.6 | 22 | 3.4 | 6 | +2.6 |
| 6 | Syria | 6 | 15.9 | 21 | 1.7 | 2 | 15.9 | 18 | +2.1 |
| 7 | Tajikistan | 6 | 10 | 14 | 3.4 | 3 | 12.1 | 14 | +1.9 |
| 8 | Lebanon | 5 | 9 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 11.2 | 13 | +1.8 |
| 9 | Thailand | 6 | 11.1 | 16 | 3.1 | 5 | 13.3 | 15 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Cambodia | 2 | 0.9 | 2 | 4.7 | 2 | 0.7 | 2 | +1.3 |
| 11 | Philippines | 6 | 10.7 | 16 | 2.8 | 6 | 13.4 | 14 | +0.6 |
| 12 | Laos | 5 | 2.1 | 2 | 13.4 | 15 | 2.4 | 3 | +0.6 |
| 13 | Mongolia | 2 | 2.6 | 3 | 2.2 | 4 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| 14 | Hong Kong | 6 | 6.6 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8.5 | 8 | -0.5 |
| 15 | East Timor | 8 | 7 | 8 | 14.1 | 18 | 6.6 | 6 | -0.6 |
| 16 | Sri Lanka | 8 | 9.2 | 10 | 7.7 | 11 | 11.8 | 11 | -0.8 |
| 17 | Bhutan | 6 | 3.8 | 4 | 11.6 | 16 | 4.9 | 4 | -0.9 |
| 18 | Maldives | 6 | 4.7 | 3 | 12.5 | 13 | 4.1 | 3 | -1.1 |
| 19 | Nepal | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8.7 | 6 | 1.1 | 0 | -1.1 |
| 20 | Malaysia | 4 | 11 | 10 | 1.4 | 4 | 10.2 | 9 | -1.2 |
| 21 | Macao | 1 | 0.6 | 0 | 0.7 | 1 | 1.2 | 0 | -1.2 |
| 22 | Yemen | 5 | 16.4 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 12.5 | 11 | -1.5 |
| 23 | Bangladesh | 6 | 5.6 | 6 | 7.4 | 8 | 6.9 | 5 | -1.9 |
| 24 | Pakistan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13.6 | 11 | 4.4 | 2 | -2.4 |
| 25 | India | 6 | 7.3 | 4 | 6.8 | 6 | 8.7 | 5 | -3.7 |
| 26 | Afghanistan | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7.3 | 11 | 5.9 | 2 | -3.9 |
| 27 | Chinese Taipei | 6 | 2.6 | 5 | 8.6 | 19 | 4.2 | 0 | -4.2 |