No, Toronto have taken 36 points over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, within 1.15 of the 34.85 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Toronto create 1.24 expected goals (xG) per game over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 37.30 in all, and have scored 46 goals from those chances, 8.70 more than that xG would expect.
Toronto allow 1.59 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 47.75 in all, and have conceded 55 goals from those chances, 7.25 more than that xGA would expect.
Josh Sargent has the most expected goals (xG) for Toronto over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 7.99 xG in 23 appearances, and has scored 7 goals; Dániel Sallói is next with 6.34 xG.
Toronto's results and their chances agree, within 1.2 points of xPts over 30 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 30 | 37.30 | 46 | +8.70 | 47.75 | 55 | -7.25 | 34.85 | 36 | +1.15 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 13.73 | 17 | +3.27 | 17.37 | 19 | -1.63 | 11.77 | 15 | +3.23 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.99 | 8 | +2.01 | 9.75 | 9 | +0.75 | 4.74 | 7 | +2.26 |
| Home | 16 | 22.21 | 34 | +11.79 | 22.05 | 32 | -9.95 | 22.02 | 24 | +1.98 |
| Away | 14 | 15.09 | 12 | -3.09 | 25.70 | 23 | +2.70 | 12.83 | 12 | -0.83 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Major League Soccer | New York RB (A) | 0-2 | 0.47 | 1.12 | 0.79 | 3 | L |
| 14 Oct | Major League Soccer | Orlando City (H) | 3-3 | 1.86 | 2.29 | 1.16 | 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | Major League Soccer | CF Montréal (H) | 2-1 | 1.62 | 1.11 | 1.72 | 3 | W |
| 27 Sep | Major League Soccer | Nashville SC (A) | 2-0 | 1.04 | 2.82 | 0.48 | 0 | L |
| 20 Sep | Major League Soccer | St. Louis (A) | 3-1 | 1.00 | 2.41 | 0.59 | 0 | L |
| 12 Sep | Major League Soccer | Orlando City (A) | 3-0 | 2.23 | 2.20 | 1.42 | 0 | W |
| 9 Sep | Major League Soccer | Nashville SC (H) | 2-1 | 2.23 | 0.86 | 2.23 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | Major League Soccer | Chicago Fire (H) | 4-4 | 1.47 | 2.24 | 0.95 | 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | Major League Soccer | NYCFC (H) | 1-1 | 0.91 | 0.57 | 1.62 | 1 | W |
| 22 Aug | Major League Soccer | Inter Miami (A) | 1-2 | 0.90 | 1.75 | 0.81 | 3 | L |
| 19 Aug | Major League Soccer | Charlotte (H) | 3-3 | 1.94 | 2.15 | 1.28 | 1 | L |
| 15 Aug | Major League Soccer | New England (H) | 2-1 | 0.18 | 2.47 | 0.16 | 3 | L |
| 31 Jul | Major League Soccer | NYCFC (A) | 1-1 | 1.01 | 2.37 | 0.62 | 1 | L |
| 25 Jul | Major League Soccer | DC United (A) | 2-1 | 1.73 | 1.94 | 1.27 | 0 | L |
| 22 Jul | Major League Soccer | New England (A) | 0-0 | 1.34 | 1.17 | 1.49 | 1 | W |
| 16 Jul | Major League Soccer | CF Montréal (A) | 0-0 | 0.59 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1 | L |
| 24 May | Major League Soccer | Chicago Fire (A) | 2-1 | 1.33 | 1.83 | 1.06 | 0 | L |
| 16 May | Major League Soccer | Charlotte (A) | 3-1 | 1.35 | 2.37 | 0.82 | 0 | L |
| 9 May | Major League Soccer | Inter Miami (H) | 2-4 | 1.01 | 1.49 | 1.02 | 0 | L |
| 2 May | Major League Soccer | San Jose (H) | 1-1 | 1.00 | 1.04 | 1.32 | 1 | L |
| 25 Apr | Major League Soccer | Atlanta (H) | 1-2 | 0.61 | 0.80 | 1.14 | 0 | D |
| 22 Apr | Major League Soccer | Philadelphia (H) | 3-3 | 1.19 | 1.04 | 1.47 | 1 | W |
| 18 Apr | Major League Soccer | Austin (H) | 3-3 | 3.55 | 1.27 | 2.46 | 1 | W |
| 11 Apr | Major League Soccer | Cincinnati (H) | 1-1 | 0.53 | 0.81 | 1.06 | 1 | L |
| 4 Apr | Major League Soccer | Colorado (H) | 3-2 | 1.58 | 0.54 | 2.14 | 3 | W |
| 21 Mar | Major League Soccer | Columbus (H) | 2-1 | 1.07 | 0.98 | 1.42 | 3 | W |
| 14 Mar | Major League Soccer | New York RB (H) | 1-1 | 1.46 | 2.39 | 0.87 | 1 | L |
| 8 Mar | Major League Soccer | Cincinnati (A) | 0-1 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 1.15 | 3 | L |
| 1 Mar | Major League Soccer | Vancouver (A) | 3-0 | 0.28 | 2.32 | 0.23 | 0 | L |
| 22 Feb | Major League Soccer | Dallas (A) | 3-2 | 1.04 | 1.41 | 1.11 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dániel Sallói | attacker | 30 | 2455 | 6.34 | 8 | +1.66 | 0.23 |
| Kobe Franklin | defender | 20 | 1212 | 0.46 | 2 | +1.54 | 0.03 |
| Emilio Aristizábal | attacker | 21 | 625 | 2.52 | 4 | +1.48 | 0.36 |
| Derrick Etienne Jr. | attacker | 24 | 1205 | 2.63 | 4 | +1.37 | 0.20 |
| Niklas Dorsch | midfielder | 10 | 833 | 0.63 | 2 | +1.37 | 0.07 |
| Lewis Morgan | attacker | 7 | 298 | 0.64 | 2 | +1.36 | 0.19 |
| Theo Corbeanu | attacker | 17 | 1059 | 1.93 | 3 | +1.07 | 0.16 |
| Richie Laryea | defender | 23 | 2070 | 0.99 | 2 | +1.01 | 0.04 |
| Raheem Edwards | defender | 13 | 750 | 0.14 | 1 | +0.86 | 0.02 |
| Luka Gavran | goalkeeper | 30 | 2633 | 0.21 | 1 | +0.79 | 0.01 |
| Markus Cimermancic | midfielder | 10 | 724 | 0.46 | 1 | +0.54 | 0.06 |
| Djordje Mihailovic | midfielder | 15 | 987 | 2.61 | 3 | +0.39 | 0.24 |
| Matheus Pereira | defender | 13 | 811 | 0.64 | 1 | +0.36 | 0.07 |
| José Cifuentes | midfielder | 10 | 797 | 0.93 | 1 | +0.07 | 0.11 |
| Walker Zimmerman | defender | 22 | 1747 | 0.96 | 1 | +0.04 | 0.05 |
| Jackson Gilman | defender | 13 | 966 | 0.59 | 0 | -0.59 | 0.05 |
| Alonso Coello | midfielder | 30 | 2054 | 0.76 | 0 | -0.76 | 0.03 |
| Deandre Kerr | attacker | 10 | 448 | 0.81 | 0 | -0.81 | 0.16 |
| Jules-Anthony Vilsaint | attacker | 4 | 116 | 0.81 | 0 | -0.81 | 0.63 |
| Josh Sargent | attacker | 23 | 1796 | 7.99 | 7 | -0.99 | 0.40 |
| BenjamÃn Kuscevic | defender | 16 | 1322 | 1.22 | 0 | -1.22 | 0.08 |
| Jonathan Osorio | midfielder | 21 | 1782 | 1.30 | 0 | -1.30 | 0.07 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | 49.9 | 64 | 38.1 | 23 | 46.5 | 67 | +20.5 |
| 2 | New England | 30 | 45.4 | 49 | 45 | 41 | 40.9 | 52 | +11.1 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | 33.9 | 41 | 43.6 | 39 | 36.7 | 47 | +10.3 |
| 4 | Inter Miami | 30 | 58.3 | 73 | 49.4 | 51 | 46.6 | 55 | +8.4 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 30 | 47.3 | 53 | 52.7 | 45 | 39.7 | 47 | +7.3 |
| 6 | Dallas | 30 | 46.4 | 55 | 41.9 | 47 | 44.7 | 51 | +6.3 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 30 | 47.6 | 58 | 59.5 | 70 | 36.3 | 41 | +4.7 |
| 8 | Austin | 30 | 30.3 | 38 | 61.7 | 56 | 26.3 | 31 | +4.7 |
| 9 | St. Louis City | 30 | 47.1 | 56 | 38.2 | 41 | 46.9 | 51 | +4.1 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 54.6 | 52 | 44 | 44 | 46.7 | 48 | +1.3 |
| 11 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 47.2 | 48 | 43.1 | 33 | 44.8 | 46 | +1.2 |
| 12 | Toronto | 30 | 37.3 | 46 | 47.7 | 55 | 34.8 | 36 | +1.2 |
| 13 | LA Galaxy | 31 | 46.2 | 43 | 52.3 | 52 | 39.3 | 40 | +0.7 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 44 | 39 | 44.3 | 37 | 41.4 | 42 | +0.6 |
| 15 | SJ Earthquakes | 30 | 54.2 | 52 | 41 | 42 | 47.6 | 48 | +0.4 |
| 16 | New York RB | 30 | 49.4 | 39 | 56.5 | 56 | 37.8 | 36 | -1.8 |
| 17 | Cincinnati | 28 | 51.3 | 60 | 52.5 | 68 | 38.5 | 36 | -2.5 |
| 18 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 62.9 | 63 | 32.2 | 31 | 57.7 | 55 | -2.7 |
| 19 | Real Salt Lake | 30 | 41.9 | 45 | 44.7 | 48 | 39.1 | 36 | -3.1 |
| 20 | DC United | 29 | 44.4 | 37 | 51.6 | 51 | 36.1 | 33 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 60.6 | 61 | 41.8 | 48 | 51.4 | 46 | -5.4 |
| 22 | Portland Timbers | 30 | 43.8 | 51 | 48.3 | 56 | 39.8 | 34 | -5.8 |
| 23 | Colorado Rapids | 30 | 45.5 | 41 | 35 | 41 | 45.5 | 39 | -6.5 |
| 24 | Sporting KC | 30 | 35.1 | 36 | 60.9 | 75 | 29 | 22 | -7 |
| 25 | New York City | 30 | 43.3 | 43 | 43.2 | 41 | 41.8 | 34 | -7.8 |
| 26 | San Diego | 30 | 48.9 | 53 | 49.1 | 56 | 43.7 | 34 | -9.7 |
| 27 | Atlanta United | 30 | 44.3 | 37 | 46.6 | 51 | 40.2 | 30 | -10.2 |
| 28 | Minnesota United | 30 | 52.1 | 47 | 49.3 | 55 | 44.3 | 34 | -10.3 |
| 29 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 44.1 | 44 | 35.7 | 47 | 43.1 | 32 | -11.1 |
| 30 | CF Montréal | 30 | 42.4 | 36 | 50.1 | 60 | 38 | 25 | -13 |