No, Peñarol have taken 11 points over their last 11 Copa Libertadores games, 3.05 fewer than the 14.05 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Peñarol create 1.05 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 11 Copa Libertadores games, 11.56 in all, and have scored 11 goals from those chances, 0.56 fewer than that xG would expect.
Peñarol allow 1.20 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 11 Copa Libertadores games, 13.17 in all, and have conceded 12 goals from those chances, 1.17 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Peñarol have taken 3.1 points fewer than their chances warranted over 11 games: -0.6 goals against their xG, and +1.2 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 11 | 11 | 11.56 | 11 | -0.56 | 13.17 | 12 | +1.17 | 14.05 | 11 | -3.05 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 11.01 | 10 | -1.01 | 11.75 | 10 | +1.75 | 13.35 | 11 | -2.35 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.62 | 3 | -0.62 | 6.59 | 7 | -0.41 | 4.89 | 2 | -2.89 |
| Home | 5 | 5.27 | 5 | -0.27 | 5.61 | 6 | -0.39 | 6.79 | 5 | -1.79 |
| Away | 6 | 6.29 | 6 | -0.29 | 7.56 | 6 | +1.56 | 7.26 | 6 | -1.26 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May | Copa Libertadores | Santa Fe (H) | 0-1 | 1.02 | 0.50 | 1.77 | 0 | W |
| 22 May | Copa Libertadores | Corinthians (H) | 1-1 | 0.70 | 2.24 | 0.48 | 1 | L |
| 7 May | Copa Libertadores | Platense (A) | 1-1 | 0.67 | 0.94 | 1.09 | 1 | L |
| 1 May | Copa Libertadores | Corinthians (A) | 2-0 | 0.49 | 1.88 | 0.46 | 0 | L |
| 17 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Platense (H) | 1-2 | 0.74 | 1.03 | 1.09 | 0 | L |
| 10 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Santa Fe (A) | 1-1 | 1.35 | 1.14 | 1.52 | 1 | W |
| 29 May | Copa Libertadores | Vélez Sarsfield (H) | 0-0 | 1.28 | 0.71 | 1.80 | 1 | W |
| 14 May | Copa Libertadores | Olimpia (H) | 3-2 | 1.53 | 1.13 | 1.65 | 3 | W |
| 7 May | Copa Libertadores | San Antonio Bulo Bulo (A) | 0-3 | 1.72 | 0.72 | 2.08 | 3 | W |
| 23 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Olimpia (A) | 0-0 | 1.51 | 1.46 | 1.41 | 1 | W |
| 2 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Vélez Sarsfield (A) | 2-1 | 0.55 | 1.42 | 0.70 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Fernández | midfielder | 6 | 535 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Maximiliano Silvera | attacker | 5 | 381 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Maximiliano Olivera | defender | 9 | 749 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Matías Arezo | attacker | 6 | 491 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Hernández | defender | 4 | 128 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Eric Remedi | midfielder | 8 | 449 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Rivadavia | 6 | 8.9 | 15 | 5.4 | 6 | 9.8 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 6 | 7.9 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 9.8 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteño | 6 | 5.3 | 6 | 7.2 | 2 | 7.3 | 13 | +5.7 |
| 4 | Universidad Católica | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 7.4 | 13 | +5.6 |
| 5 | UCV | 6 | 6.2 | 7 | 12.8 | 11 | 5.1 | 9 | +3.9 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 6 | 7.1 | 8 | 6.5 | 5 | 8.7 | 12 | +3.3 |
| 7 | Rosario Central | 6 | 10.4 | 9 | 6.1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | +2 |
| 8 | Mirassol | 6 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | +2 |
| 9 | Santa Fe | 6 | 4.1 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| 10 | Nacional | 6 | 4.8 | 7 | 7.9 | 9 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| 11 | Platense | 6 | 4.9 | 8 | 3.9 | 7 | 8.7 | 10 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Lanús | 6 | 6.3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8.4 | 9 | +0.6 |
| 13 | Independiente del Valle | 6 | 12.6 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12.5 | 13 | +0.5 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 6 | 7.6 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10.6 | 11 | +0.4 |
| 15 | Independiente Medellín | 6 | 4.3 | 6 | 7.1 | 11 | 6.8 | 7 | +0.2 |
| 16 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 6.4 | 7 | 5.7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -0 |
| 17 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 6 | 3.1 | 2 | 12.2 | 12 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 |
| 18 | Coquimbo Unido | 6 | 8.2 | 8 | 4.9 | 6 | 10.7 | 10 | -0.7 |
| 19 | Estudiantes | 6 | 8 | 6 | 5.1 | 5 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 20 | Cruzeiro | 6 | 10.8 | 8 | 5.3 | 3 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 21 | Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | 3.6 | 6 | 10.6 | 13 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| 22 | Palmeiras | 6 | 12.2 | 10 | 5.8 | 5 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 23 | Universitario | 6 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 | 7.4 | 6 | -1.4 |
| 24 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 7.3 | 6 | 8.7 | 9 | 7.7 | 6 | -1.7 |
| 25 | Junior FC | 6 | 6.1 | 5 | 9.2 | 11 | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 |
| 26 | Fluminense | 6 | 7.4 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 10.7 | 8 | -2.7 |
| 27 | Always Ready | 6 | 6.7 | 7 | 10.7 | 9 | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 |
| 28 | Club Bolívar | 6 | 6.4 | 6 | 7.3 | 8 | 8.1 | 5 | -3.1 |
| 29 | Peñarol | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7.7 | 8 | 6.4 | 3 | -3.4 |
| 30 | Boca Juniors | 6 | 9 | 6 | 4.3 | 5 | 10.9 | 7 | -3.9 |
| 31 | Cusco FC | 6 | 4.9 | 4 | 7.9 | 12 | 6 | 1 | -5 |
| 32 | Libertad | 6 | 5.4 | 4 | 10.8 | 13 | 5.1 | 0 | -5.1 |