No, Nepal have taken 0 points over their last 7 Asian Cup Qualification games, 1.33 fewer than the 1.33 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Nepal create 0.35 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 7 Asian Cup Qualification games, 2.48 in all, and have scored 2 goals from those chances, 0.48 fewer than that xG would expect.
Nepal allow 3.38 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 7 Asian Cup Qualification games, 23.64 in all, and have conceded 19 goals from those chances, 4.64 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Nepal have taken 1.3 points fewer than their chances warranted over 7 games: -0.5 goals against their xG, and +4.6 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 7 | 2.48 | 2 | -0.48 | 23.64 | 19 | +4.64 | 1.33 | 0 | -1.33 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 1.15 | 1 | -0.15 | 13.70 | 13 | +0.70 | 1.13 | 0 | -1.13 |
| Home | 4 | 2.12 | 1 | -1.12 | 11.21 | 7 | +4.21 | 1.14 | 0 | -1.14 |
| Away | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | +0.64 | 12.43 | 12 | +0.43 | 0.19 | 0 | -0.19 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar | Asian Cup Qualification | Laos (H) | 0-1 | 0.56 | 1.52 | 0.66 | 0 | L |
| 18 Nov | Asian Cup Qualification | Malaysia (H) | 0-1 | 0.04 | 2.51 | 0.10 | 0 | L |
| 14 Oct | Asian Cup Qualification | Vietnam (H) | 0-1 | 0.24 | 2.42 | 0.19 | 0 | L |
| 9 Oct | Asian Cup Qualification | Vietnam (A) | 3-1 | 0.14 | 2.29 | 0.16 | 0 | L |
| 14 Jun | Asian Cup Qualification | Indonesia (A) | 7-0 | 0.17 | 4.96 | 0.02 | 0 | L |
| 11 Jun | Asian Cup Qualification | Kuwait (H) | 1-4 | 1.28 | 4.76 | 0.19 | 0 | L |
| 8 Jun | Asian Cup Qualification | Jordan (A) | 2-0 | 0.05 | 5.18 | 0.01 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanish Shrestha | defender | 4 | 337 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Singapore | 6 | 7.7 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 8.4 | 14 | +5.6 |
| 2 | Myanmar | 6 | 7.3 | 8 | 8.5 | 11 | 7.4 | 12 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Turkmenistan | 6 | 6.7 | 11 | 6.5 | 7 | 8.4 | 12 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Vietnam | 5 | 11.8 | 14 | 2.4 | 2 | 12.2 | 15 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Brunei Darussalam | 7 | 2.3 | 4 | 16.6 | 22 | 3.4 | 6 | +2.6 |
| 6 | Syria | 6 | 15.9 | 21 | 1.7 | 2 | 15.9 | 18 | +2.1 |
| 7 | Tajikistan | 6 | 10 | 14 | 3.4 | 3 | 12.1 | 14 | +1.9 |
| 8 | Lebanon | 5 | 9 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 11.2 | 13 | +1.8 |
| 9 | Thailand | 6 | 11.1 | 16 | 3.1 | 5 | 13.3 | 15 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Cambodia | 2 | 0.9 | 2 | 4.7 | 2 | 0.7 | 2 | +1.3 |
| 11 | Philippines | 6 | 10.7 | 16 | 2.8 | 6 | 13.4 | 14 | +0.6 |
| 12 | Laos | 5 | 2.1 | 2 | 13.4 | 15 | 2.4 | 3 | +0.6 |
| 13 | Mongolia | 2 | 2.6 | 3 | 2.2 | 4 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| 14 | Hong Kong | 6 | 6.6 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8.5 | 8 | -0.5 |
| 15 | East Timor | 8 | 7 | 8 | 14.1 | 18 | 6.6 | 6 | -0.6 |
| 16 | Sri Lanka | 8 | 9.2 | 10 | 7.7 | 11 | 11.8 | 11 | -0.8 |
| 17 | Bhutan | 6 | 3.8 | 4 | 11.6 | 16 | 4.9 | 4 | -0.9 |
| 18 | Maldives | 6 | 4.7 | 3 | 12.5 | 13 | 4.1 | 3 | -1.1 |
| 19 | Nepal | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8.7 | 6 | 1.1 | 0 | -1.1 |
| 20 | Malaysia | 4 | 11 | 10 | 1.4 | 4 | 10.2 | 9 | -1.2 |
| 21 | Macao | 1 | 0.6 | 0 | 0.7 | 1 | 1.2 | 0 | -1.2 |
| 22 | Yemen | 5 | 16.4 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 12.5 | 11 | -1.5 |
| 23 | Bangladesh | 6 | 5.6 | 6 | 7.4 | 8 | 6.9 | 5 | -1.9 |
| 24 | Pakistan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13.6 | 11 | 4.4 | 2 | -2.4 |
| 25 | India | 6 | 7.3 | 4 | 6.8 | 6 | 8.7 | 5 | -3.7 |
| 26 | Afghanistan | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7.3 | 11 | 5.9 | 2 | -3.9 |
| 27 | Chinese Taipei | 6 | 2.6 | 5 | 8.6 | 19 | 4.2 | 0 | -4.2 |