Yes, Nacional have taken 14 points over their last 11 Copa Libertadores games, 1.93 more than the 12.07 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Nacional create 0.91 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 11 Copa Libertadores games, 10.04 in all, and have scored 11 goals from those chances, 0.96 more than that xG would expect.
Nacional allow 1.33 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 11 Copa Libertadores games, 14.65 in all, and have conceded 16 goals from those chances, 1.35 more than that xGA would expect.
Nacional have taken 1.9 points more than their chances warranted over 11 games: +1.0 goals against their xG, and -1.4 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 11 | 11 | 10.04 | 11 | +0.96 | 14.65 | 16 | -1.35 | 12.07 | 14 | +1.93 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 9.09 | 11 | +1.91 | 12.68 | 13 | -0.32 | 11.33 | 14 | +2.67 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.30 | 6 | +1.70 | 6.10 | 8 | -1.90 | 5.83 | 7 | +1.17 |
| Home | 6 | 4.54 | 5 | +0.46 | 5.50 | 4 | +1.50 | 7.21 | 10 | +2.79 |
| Away | 5 | 5.50 | 6 | +0.50 | 9.15 | 12 | -2.85 | 4.86 | 4 | -0.86 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May | Copa Libertadores | Coquimbo Unido (H) | 1-0 | 0.50 | 0.73 | 1.08 | 3 | D |
| 20 May | Copa Libertadores | Universitario (H) | 0-0 | 0.40 | 0.62 | 1.04 | 1 | D |
| 7 May | Copa Libertadores | Deportes Tolima (A) | 3-0 | 0.40 | 2.70 | 0.22 | 0 | L |
| 30 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Universitario (A) | 4-2 | 1.61 | 1.66 | 1.35 | 0 | L |
| 14 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Deportes Tolima (H) | 3-1 | 1.39 | 0.39 | 2.14 | 3 | W |
| 8 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Coquimbo Unido (A) | 1-1 | 0.55 | 1.83 | 0.52 | 1 | L |
| 28 May | Copa Libertadores | Atlético Nacional (H) | 1-0 | 0.77 | 1.36 | 0.92 | 3 | L |
| 15 May | Copa Libertadores | Internacional (H) | 0-2 | 0.85 | 1.67 | 0.81 | 0 | L |
| 7 May | Copa Libertadores | Bahia (A) | 1-3 | 1.99 | 0.99 | 2.03 | 3 | W |
| 9 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Bahia (H) | 0-1 | 0.63 | 0.73 | 1.22 | 0 | D |
| 3 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Atlético Nacional (A) | 3-0 | 0.95 | 1.97 | 0.74 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxi Gómez | attacker | 6 | 540 | 0.00 | 3 | +3.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás López | attacker | 7 | 438 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastián Coates | defender | 10 | 848 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Oliva | midfielder | 5 | 426 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Morales | defender | 3 | 240 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Julián Millán | defender | 5 | 450 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Maximiliano Silvera | attacker | 4 | 185 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Rivadavia | 6 | 8.9 | 15 | 5.4 | 6 | 9.8 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 6 | 7.9 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 9.8 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteño | 6 | 5.3 | 6 | 7.2 | 2 | 7.3 | 13 | +5.7 |
| 4 | Universidad Católica | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 7.4 | 13 | +5.6 |
| 5 | UCV | 6 | 6.2 | 7 | 12.8 | 11 | 5.1 | 9 | +3.9 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 6 | 7.1 | 8 | 6.5 | 5 | 8.7 | 12 | +3.3 |
| 7 | Rosario Central | 6 | 10.4 | 9 | 6.1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | +2 |
| 8 | Mirassol | 6 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | +2 |
| 9 | Santa Fe | 6 | 4.1 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| 10 | Nacional | 6 | 4.8 | 7 | 7.9 | 9 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| 11 | Platense | 6 | 4.9 | 8 | 3.9 | 7 | 8.7 | 10 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Lanús | 6 | 6.3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8.4 | 9 | +0.6 |
| 13 | Independiente del Valle | 6 | 12.6 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12.5 | 13 | +0.5 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 6 | 7.6 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10.6 | 11 | +0.4 |
| 15 | Independiente MedellÃn | 6 | 4.3 | 6 | 7.1 | 11 | 6.8 | 7 | +0.2 |
| 16 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 6.4 | 7 | 5.7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -0 |
| 17 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 6 | 3.1 | 2 | 12.2 | 12 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 |
| 18 | Coquimbo Unido | 6 | 8.2 | 8 | 4.9 | 6 | 10.7 | 10 | -0.7 |
| 19 | Estudiantes | 6 | 8 | 6 | 5.1 | 5 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 20 | Cruzeiro | 6 | 10.8 | 8 | 5.3 | 3 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 21 | Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | 3.6 | 6 | 10.6 | 13 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| 22 | Palmeiras | 6 | 12.2 | 10 | 5.8 | 5 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 23 | Universitario | 6 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 | 7.4 | 6 | -1.4 |
| 24 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 7.3 | 6 | 8.7 | 9 | 7.7 | 6 | -1.7 |
| 25 | Junior FC | 6 | 6.1 | 5 | 9.2 | 11 | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 |
| 26 | Fluminense | 6 | 7.4 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 10.7 | 8 | -2.7 |
| 27 | Always Ready | 6 | 6.7 | 7 | 10.7 | 9 | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 |
| 28 | Club BolÃvar | 6 | 6.4 | 6 | 7.3 | 8 | 8.1 | 5 | -3.1 |
| 29 | Peñarol | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7.7 | 8 | 6.4 | 3 | -3.4 |
| 30 | Boca Juniors | 6 | 9 | 6 | 4.3 | 5 | 10.9 | 7 | -3.9 |
| 31 | Cusco FC | 6 | 4.9 | 4 | 7.9 | 12 | 6 | 1 | -5 |
| 32 | Libertad | 6 | 5.4 | 4 | 10.8 | 13 | 5.1 | 0 | -5.1 |